6-10 Day Narrative

257 
FXUS06 KWBC 232002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE JANUARY 23 2018
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2018
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 
500-HPA FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A LOW AMPLITUDE BROADLY CYCLONIC 
FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS WITH A WEAK TROUGH 
FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN, WHILE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY AND OVER MOST 
OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS DEPICT 
MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE 
WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN 
NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO AT DAY 7, WEAKLY NEGATIVE AT 10 DAY, AND 
REMAIN  NEGATIVE AT DAY 14. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKLY 
NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO AT DAY 7, AND REMAIN CLOSE TO ZERO THROUGH 
DAY 14. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART DEPICTS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER 
THE NORTHWEST CONUS, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND 
ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ENHANCE PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WHERE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES OF BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF ALASKA.
THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR 
ANOMALOUS WESTERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION 
FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, NORTHERN 
ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND/OR ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY 
FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CONUS AND ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED 
ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF 
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY 
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE 
SURFACE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2018 
THE OVERALL CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE DURING 
WEEK-2 AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND RISE OVER THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE 6-10 DAY 
PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AMPLIFY. THE ENSEMBLE 
SPAGHETTI CHARTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, 
AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC. 
TODAY'S 500-HPA BLENDED HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER 
PARTS OF THE ROCKIES, THE HIGH PLAINS, THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEYS, AND THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE 
ANTICIPATED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.
FOR THE CONUS, AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE NEAR TO ABOVE (BELOW) NORMAL 
HEIGHTS GENERALLY CORRESPOND TO AREAS THAT ARE FORECAST TO HAVE ENHANCED 
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE (BELOW) NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW 
TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND 
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ENHANCES PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF 
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL 
HEIGHTS AND/OR ANOMALOUS NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FAVORS BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. ANOMALOUS 
NORTHERLY FLOW TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHEASTERN 
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW ENHANCES 
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF 
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED 
ON DAY 11, 10% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF 
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z 
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE 
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 10% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 
CENTERED ON DAY 10 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO 
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH 
SPREAD AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
FORECASTER: RANDY S
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN 
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS 
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, 
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE 
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE 
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). 
 PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, 
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES 
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE 
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). 
 PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A 
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL 
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES 
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO 
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR 
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE 
OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON 
FEBRUARY 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19990128 - 19510121 - 19540126 - 20000111 - 19680112
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 
19680112 - 19990128 - 19510121 - 20080110 - 19590110
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 02, 2018
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      N    A     NRN CALIF   A    B     
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       N    A     NEVADA      A    B     
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     N    A     
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B     
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    N    A     
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B     
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     N    B     W TEXAS     A    B     
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A     
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A     
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    A    A     
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A     
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A     
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A     
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A     
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A     
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A     
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A     
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B     
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    B     AK INT BSN  B    B     
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    B     
 
                           
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 31 - FEB 06, 2018
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   
WASHINGTON  B    B     OREGON      B    B     NRN CALIF   A    B     
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       B    N     NEVADA      A    B     
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A     
UTAH        A    N     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    N    N     
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A     
NEBRASKA    B    A     KANSAS      B    A     OKLAHOMA    N    N     
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    B     
MINNESOTA   B    A     IOWA        B    A     MISSOURI    N    A     
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   B    A     
ILLINOIS    N    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A     
INDIANA     N    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A     
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    A    A     
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A     
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A     
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A     
MARYLAND    A    A     DELAWARE    A    A     VIRGINIA    A    A     
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A     
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    A     AK N SLOPE  N    B     
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  N    N     AK INT BSN  N    B     
AK S INT    N    N     AK SO COAST A    N     AK PNHDL    B    B     
 
                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$