90 Day Narrative

687 
FXUS05 KWBC 201231
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU SEP 20 2018
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
THE OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER (OND) 2018 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES LIKELY 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN, ALTHOUGH EQUAL 
CHANCES (EC) OF BELOW, NEAR, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR 
PART OF THE SOUTHEAST REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES OVER THE CONUS EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. 
PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 
INDICATED FOR NORTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE OND 2018 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK INDICATES 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FAR SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
GREAT PLAINS, THE GULF COAST STATES, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM FLORIDA 
TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE 
ALSO INDICATED FOR NEARLY ALL OF ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED 
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS.
DURING THE AUTUMN AND WINTER 2018-19, THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION 
OUTLOOKS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PROBABILITY OF EL NINO 
DEVELOPMENT AND ITS CORRESPONDING WEAKER IMPACTS RELATIVE TO THOSE TYPICALLY 
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODERATE OR STRONG EVENT. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE CONSISTENT 
WITH MODEL FORECASTS AND DECADAL TIMESCALE CLIMATE TRENDS. FOR THE REMAINING 
SEASONS (SPRING, SUMMER, AND EARLY AUTUMN 2019), THE TEMPERATURE AND 
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED HEAVILY ON DECADAL TRENDS.
EQUAL CHANCES (EC) ARE INDICATED IN AREAS WHERE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEASONAL MEAN 
TEMPERATURES OR SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE:  FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC INDICATE 
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. OBSERVED WEEKLY 
SSTS HAVE BEEN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN 
FOR THE PAST 3 MONTHS. THE LATEST WEEKLY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT SSTS WITHIN ONE 
CELSIUS DEGREE OF NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SEVERAL ISOLATED POCKETS OF +1.0C 
TO +2.0C. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE PERSISTED FOR MOST 
AREAS INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER, FROM NEAR THE SURFACE TO A DEPTH OF 250 METERS. 
NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WERE CONFINED TO NEAR THE SOUTH 
AMERICAN COAST, TO A DEPTH OF ABOUT 125 METERS. PERSISTENT SUBSURFACE POSITIVE 
HEAT ANOMALIES CONTRIBUTE TO THE CONTINUED LIKELIHOOD OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
WEAK EL NINO DURING AUTUMN 2018.
OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION (OLR) ANOMALIES INDICATED SUPPRESSED CONVECTION 
OVER MALAYSIA AND WESTERN INDONESIA, AND ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER PAPUA NEW 
GUINEA. LOW-LEVEL (850-HPA) WINDS WERE NEAR AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC, WITH A FEW SMALL POCKETS OF ENHANCED WESTERLY ANOMALIES. NEAR AVERAGE 
WINDS WERE ALSO OBSERVED AT UPPER-LEVELS (200-HPA), WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
ENHANCED WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. 
OVERALL, ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL 
CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS TO CONSIDER FOR THE AUTUMN 2018 AND WINTER 2018-19 
OUTLOOKS, GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK EL NINO. MUCH OF THE RECENT 
WARMING IN SSTS HAS BEEN OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC, A BIT WEST OF WHERE IT 
TYPICALLY OCCURS. HOWEVER, THE MORE IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION IS THAT THIS WARM 
EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK. ONE OF THE MAIN CHALLENGES ASSOCIATED WITH A 
PREDICTED WEAK EL NINO IS THE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EASTERNMOST EXTENT OF 
THE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE PACIFIC, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES THAT STRADDLE 
THE EQUATOR AND RELATED DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. OF 
PRIMARY CONCERN HERE IS HOW FAR EAST THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL EXTEND 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. IN ADDITION, WHEN EL NINO IS 
WEAK, THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD THAT OTHER MODES OF VARIABILITY (SUCH AS 
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AO)) WILL PLAY A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE NORTH 
AMERICAN CLIMATE. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER WITH THIS EL NINO IS THE MADDEN 
JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO). IF A SIGNIFICANT MJO EVENT WERE TO DEVELOP DURING THE 
WEEK-2 PERIOD AS SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST, IT COULD AID IN EL NINO 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO. IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT A SIGNIFICANT 
MJO EVENT COULD HELP THE EL NINO STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE INTENSITY. FOR THIS 
SUITE OF SEASONAL OUTLOOKS, THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE WITH THE 
PREDICTION OF A WEAK EL NINO DURING THE UPCOMING COLD SEASON IN THE NORTHERN 
HEMISPHERE. WHETHER OR NOT THIS PARTICULAR EL NINO FADES AWAY, OR GETS SOME 
HELP FROM THE MJO IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, REMAINS TO BE SEEN.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
THE OCEANIC NINO INDEX (ONI) FOR THE RECENTLY OBSERVED JJA SEASON WAS +0.1C, 
AND THE MOST RECENT WEEKLY VALUE IS +0.3C. THE CPC SST CONSOLIDATION (CON) FOR 
THE NINO 3.4 REGION PREDICTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES GREATER 
THAN +0.5 DEGREES C TO BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT BY SON, WITH POSITIVE 
ANOMALIES PEAKING NEAR +1.0 DEGREES C DURING NDJ 2018-19. THE SST CONSTRUCTED 
ANALOG, MARKOV MODEL, AND CFS INDICATE PEAK ANOMALY VALUES AT OR ABOVE +1.0 
DEGREES C THIS UPCOMING WINTER. THE CPC/IRI CONSENSUS FORECAST FAVORS THE ONSET 
OF EL NINO DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AUTUMN WITH PROBABILITIES OF EL NINO 
OF 65-70 PERCENT DURING NDJ AND DJF 2018-19.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
THE PREDICTION OF WEAK EL NINO DEVELOPMENT SUGGESTS ENSO-RELATED IMPACTS ACROSS 
THE UNITED STATES THIS AUTUMN AND WINTER WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED, FROM WHAT 
WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH A MODERATE OR STRONG WARM EVENT. THIS SUITE OF SEASONAL 
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE THEREFORE BASED PRIMARILY ON A WEAK 
EL NINO BETWEEN OND 2018 AND MAM 2019, AND DECADAL TRENDS FOR THE ENSUING LEADS 
(AMJ TO OND 2019). TOOLS USED FOR THE SEASONAL OUTLOOKS INCLUDED DYNAMICAL 
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME), 
THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME), THE SST-BASED CONSTRUCTED 
ANALOG, THE CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA), AND A HYBRID 
STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL CONSOLIDATION OF THE CCA/CA/ENSO-OCN/NMME (FINAL-CON) OUT 
THROUGH LEAD 5 (FMA 2019). FOR LEADS 6-13 (MAM THROUGH OND 2019), DECADAL 
CLIMATE TRENDS WERE PRIMARILY USED, AND A STATISTICAL CON (STAT-CON) WHICH IS 
SIMILAR TO THE FINAL-CON, BUT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE NMME. A RELATIVELY NEW TOOL 
IN THE CPC SUITE IS THE CBAM, OR CALIBRATION, BRIDGING, AND MERGING FORECAST 
TOOL. THIS USES A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO THE NMME MODEL CALIBRATION AND 
CONSOLIDATION, AS WELL AS A HYBRID STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL FORECAST, IN WHICH 
NMME CONSTITUENT-MODEL NINO 3.4 FORECASTS ARE STATISTICALLY BRIDGED TO 
PREDICTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION USING A BAYESIAN MODEL.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - OND 2018 TO OND 2019
TEMPERATURE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AND 
ALASKA DURING OND 2018, WITH EC INDICATED OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST 
REGION. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE CONUS 
EXCEED 60 PERCENT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 60 
PERCENT FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR NORTHWESTERN 
ALASKA. WIDESPREAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY THE FINAL-CON, 
ESPECIALLY ITS NMME, OCN, AND ENSO CONSTITUENTS. CONSIDERABLE SUPPORT ALSO 
COMES FROM THE IMME, THE CFS, AND THE OLDER LEGACY CON TOOL. THE BROAD REGION 
OF LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (33%-40%) ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE CONUS IS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF A FAIRLY COOL OCTOBER. THE 
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BUILDUP OF COLDER AIR ACROSS WESTERN 
CANADA, WHICH APPEARS POISED TO DRIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THIS REGION, AT LEAST 
DURING THE FIRST WEEK OR TWO OF OCTOBER. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH THE 
PREDICTED DURATION OF AN AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM RIDGE; WHETHER IT REMAINS 
PERSISTENT, OR ENDS UP BEING A TRANSIENT FEATURE. IN ALASKA, THE HIGHEST 
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY RELATIVELY WARM 
SSTS (WESTERN ALASKA), AND BY RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS RESULTING IN A 
SIGNIFICANT DELAY IN THE ONSET OF ICE COVER (NORTHERN ALASKA). 
FOR LEADS 2-6 (NDJ 2018-19 THROUGH MAM 2019), THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS ARE 
BASED ON THE PREMISE OF A WEAK EL NINO, AND CONSIDERATION OF A WIDE ARRAY OF 
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL TOOLS (NOTED EARLIER). THE GENERAL IDEA IS TO DEPICT 
THE ANTICIPATED WAXING AND WANING OF EC COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH 
REPRESENTS THE AREA OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY DURING THESE SEASONAL LEADS. DURING 
THESE SAME SEASONS, THE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DECLINE 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES REGION DURING NDJ AND DJF, BEFORE FAVORING 
EC IN JFM AND FMA 2019. THE PREDICTED SPATIAL EXTENT OF EC DIMINISHES ACROSS 
THIS AREA IN MAM 2019. THE CALIBRATED NMME, THE FINAL-CON, AND THE LEGACY CON, 
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATED CHANCES OF NON-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 
NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES, MEANING EITHER EC OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH 
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EL NINO INTENSITY DURING THE AUTUMN AND 
WINTER, IT WAS DECIDED AT THIS TIME TO FAVOR EC OVER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. 
IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS PREDICTED WARM EVENT MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS MOST 
NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALY PROJECTIONS INDICATE.
THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS FOR LEADS 7-13 (AMJ THROUGH OND 2019) ARE 
BASED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY ON DECADAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS, WHICH FAVOR ANOMALOUS 
WARMTH FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES 
WHERE EC IS FAVORED FOR LEADS 8-11 (MJJ THROUGH ASO 2019), AND THE SOUTHEAST 
FOR LEADS 12-13 (SON AND OND 2019). MOST OF ALASKA IS ALSO FAVORED BY DECADAL 
TRENDS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEADS 12 AND 13 (SON AND OND 
2019) WHEN EC IS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE.
PRECIPITATION
FOR OND 2018, THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM 
FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, THE GULF COAST STATES, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES 
FROM FLORIDA TO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, EXTREME SOUTHERN 
NEVADA, AND WESTERN ARIZONA HAVE TWO OPPORTUNITIES TO REACH THE UPPER TERCILE 
FOR SEASONAL PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY IS FAVORED TO BE IN OCTOBER, 
WITH ANOMALOUSLY WARM SSTS STILL OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MEXICAN 
COASTS, AND THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES AND 
ATTENDANT GULF SURGES TO FOCUS MOISTURE INTO THAT REGION OF THE FAR 
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE SECOND OPPORTUNITY IS FAVORED LATE IN THE OND SEASON, 
WITH INCREASING ODDS OF EL NINO. THE FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST CONUS IS 
ATTRIBUTED TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A WEAK EL NINO THIS COLD SEASON. THE 
PREDICTED NORTHWARD EXTENSION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST IS 
LARGELY DUE TO HISTORICAL TRENDS. WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO 
FAVORED IN ALASKA, WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE SST-CA (CONSTRUCTED ANALOG ON 
SSTS) TOOL, THE CFS, THE EXPERIMENTAL CBAM, THE FINAL-CON, AND THE IMME 
(ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF ALASKA). RELATIVELY WARM SSTS OFF 
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS ALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS. THE DELAYED ONSET OF ICE COVER 
OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN/BEAUFORT SEA REGION IN THE PAST FEW DECADES ALSO LENDS 
SOME SUPPORT FOR FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTH SLOPE REGION. 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWEST, PERHAPS AS 
FAR EAST AS CENTRAL MONTANA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS IS 
INDICATED BY SUCH TOOLS AS THE NMME, IMME, SST-CA, AND CBAM TO VARIOUS DEGREES. 
IN ADDITION, DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS USUALLY BEGIN TO SET UP ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN CONCERT WITH A DEVELOPING EL NINO.
FOR LEADS 2 AND 3 (NDJ AND DJF 2018-19), THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS 
FAVOR THE MEAN STORM TRACK AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER 
OF THE CONUS, LARGELY IN RESPONSE TO THE PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK EL 
NINO. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING EL NINO AT THIS 
TIME, THE 50%-60% PROBABILITY REGIONS FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER 
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST REGIONS OF THE CONUS FROM THE PREVIOUS SET OF 
OUTLOOKS HAVE BEEN DROPPED. THE FAVORED AREA OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION 
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING 
THESE TWO SEASONS. THE ALASKA PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR NDJ AND DJF 2018-19 
ARE BASED PRIMARILY BY DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR LEADS 4-6 (JFM THROUGH MAM 
2019), THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO WORK OFF THE PREMISE OF A WEAK EL 
NINO EVENT. THIS UNDERLYING PREMISE, ALONG WITH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE, FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF A SOUTHERN STORM TRACK, A PERIOD OF 
FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THE 
REMOVAL OF THE DRIER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS INDICATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. 
JFM AND FMA 2019 ALSO FAVOR THE INTRODUCTION OF FAVORED BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA.
THE SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR SUBSEQUENT LEADS 7-13 (AMJ THROUGH OND 
2019) ARE ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY BASED ON DECADAL PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THESE 
OUTLOOKS ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE CORRESPONDING PREVIOUS SET OF OUTLOOKS, 
WITH NO NEW INFORMATION AVAILABLE AS TO WHICH DIRECTION THESE OUTLOOKS CAN BE 
RELIABLY TILTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WESTERN ALASKA FOR LEADS 12 AND 13 (SON 
AND OND 2019) WHERE OPEN WATER LATER INTO THE AUTUMN SEASON IS LIKELY TO 
INCREASE THE ODDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THERE.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY ARTUSA
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1981 AND 2010, FOLLOWING 
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3 
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD.  THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES 
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT 
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR 
VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM 
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT 
MONTH ON OCT 18 2018
1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 19, 2011 
FORECAST RELEASE.
$$