Hawaii 30 & 90 Day Narrative

805 
FXHW40 KWBC 181331
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU JAN 18 2018
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2018
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE 
ONE-HALF DEGREE C OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FOR JANUARY 2017 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 
WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 23.55 INCHES (64 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 22.62 INCHES (132 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 24.49 INCHES (137 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 105.15 INCHES (83 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART 
OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FEBRUARY 2018. CONSIDERING 
RECENT COOLER SSTS NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, 
NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR LIHUE, 
HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND HILO IN FEBRUARY 2018. MOST DYNAMICAL TOOLS ALSO FAVOR 
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HILO, KAHULUI, HONOLULU AND LIHUE DURING 
FEBRUARY 2018, WHICH IS BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING ENSO CONDITIONS.  
           TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE    LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO        EC   71.4   0.5  A40   5.0   8.4   11.1
KAHULUI     EC   71.9   0.6  A40   0.9   1.1   1.8
HONOLULU    EC   73.3   0.5  A40   0.7   1.0   1.4
LIHUE       EC   71.7   0.6  A40   1.3   1.8   4.0
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2018 - FMA 2019
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS 
AND ALASKA FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, AND 
FOR THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE 
CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. LA NINA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE 
PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN, AND ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE 
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENED RECENTLY. 
ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION ANOMALIES WERE POSITIVE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE 
LINE, WHILE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS WERE STRONGER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN 
AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE NCEP CFS AND ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OF THE NMME 
FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF LA NINA AT LEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE 
WINTER 2017-18, WITH A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL MOST LIKELY DURING THE 
SPRING. THE OFFICIAL CPC/IRI OUTLOOK FOR ENSO INDICATES AN85 PERCENT OR GREATER 
CHANCE OF LA NINA CONTINUING THROUGH JFM 2018.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII 
FROM FMA 2018 TO JAS 2018 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ASO 2018 AND BEYOND.
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII 
FROM FMA 2018 TO MAM 2018. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AMONG AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AND 
STATISTICAL TOOLS (CONSTRUCTED ANALOG AND CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS) IN 
AMJ AND LONGER LEADS, SO EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN 
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED.  
                      HILO
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2018  A60  71.7   0.4   A50   24.6   34.1   45.5
MAM 2018  A55  72.0   0.5   A40   22.5   28.4   34.0
AMJ 2018  A55  72.9   0.5    EC   21.4   23.7   29.0
MJJ 2018  A50  74.0   0.4    EC   20.2   27.5   29.1
JJA 2018  A45  75.2   0.4    EC   19.4   27.2   31.4
JAS 2018  A40  76.1   0.4    EC   25.2   28.6   33.4
ASO 2018   EC  76.4   0.4    EC   26.1   28.8   33.3
SON 2018   EC  76.2   0.4    EC   24.3   30.2   40.8
OND 2018   EC  75.5   0.4    EC   28.3   34.5   42.0
NDJ 2018   EC  74.2   0.4    EC   26.4   36.6   43.0
DJF 2019   EC  72.8   0.4    EC   19.6   30.2   33.3
JFM 2019   EC  71.8   0.4    EC   22.0   32.0   44.5
FMA 2019   EC  71.7   0.4    EC   24.6   34.1   45.5
\N                      KAHULUI
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2018  A60  72.3   0.4   A50   3.2    4.1    6.4 
MAM 2018  A55  73.0   0.4   A40   2.5    3.5    4.6 
AMJ 2018  A55  74.3   0.5    EC   1.2    1.6    2.2 
MJJ 2018  A50  76.0   0.5    EC   0.7    1.1    1.8 
JJA 2018  A45  77.7   0.4    EC   0.7    1.1    1.5 
JAS 2018  A40  79.0   0.4    EC   0.8    1.1    1.6 
ASO 2018   EC  79.4   0.4    EC   0.8    1.6    2.5 
SON 2018   EC  79.1   0.4    EC   2.1    3.3    4.8 
OND 2018   EC  77.8   0.4    EC   4.2    5.3    8.1 
NDJ 2018   EC  75.9   0.4    EC   5.2    7.6    9.5 
DJF 2019   EC  73.8   0.4    EC   4.6    6.9    8.7 
JFM 2019   EC  72.5   0.4    EC   4.2    6.2    8.2 
FMA 2019   EC  72.3   0.4    EC   3.2    4.1    6.4 
\N                      HONOLULU
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2018  A60  73.8   0.4   A50   1.9    3.2    4.7 
MAM 2018  A55  74.8   0.4   A40   1.8    2.6    3.0 
AMJ 2018  A55  76.3   0.4    EC   1.2    1.6    1.8 
MJJ 2018  A50  78.2   0.4    EC   0.8    1.4    1.6 
JJA 2018  A45  79.9   0.4    EC   0.7    0.8    1.3 
JAS 2018  A40  81.3   0.4    EC   1.0    1.4    1.7 
ASO 2018   EC  81.7   0.4    EC   1.6    2.4    3.1 
SON 2018   EC  81.4   0.4    EC   2.5    4.0    5.6 
OND 2018   EC  80.0   0.4    EC   4.4    6.4    8.5 
NDJ 2018   EC  77.7   0.5    EC   3.9    5.6    8.8 
DJF 2019   EC  75.3   0.5    EC   3.7    5.6    8.6 
JFM 2019   EC  73.9   0.4    EC   2.1    4.6    7.8 
FMA 2019   EC  73.8   0.4    EC   1.9    3.2    4.7 
\N                      LIHUE
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2018  A60  72.1   0.5   A50   5.8    8.4    9.9 
MAM 2018  A55  72.8   0.5   A40   5.3    6.6    8.0 
AMJ 2018  A55  74.2   0.5    EC   4.7    5.5    6.0 
MJJ 2018  A50  76.0   0.5    EC   4.9    5.4    5.9 
JJA 2018  A45  77.7   0.4    EC   4.4    5.3    6.9 
JAS 2018  A40  79.0   0.3    EC   5.3    6.1    7.8 
ASO 2018   EC  79.4   0.3    EC   6.2    7.9    8.4 
SON 2018   EC  79.1   0.3    EC   9.2    10.0   11.2
OND 2018   EC  77.8   0.3    EC   9.2    11.7   15.6
NDJ 2018   EC  75.7   0.3    EC   8.6    12.1   16.9
DJF 2019   EC  73.6   0.4    EC   7.5    8.4    14.0
JFM 2019   EC  72.2   0.4    EC   6.5    8.8    13.8
FMA 2019   EC  72.1   0.5    EC   5.8    8.4    9.9 
\NFORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS
 CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY 
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE 
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT 
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR 
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE 
ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL 
BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL 
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID 
PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS 
SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE 
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 15, 2018.
$$