Hawaii 30 & 90 Day Narrative

895 
FXHW40 KWBC 171331
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EST THU JAN 17 2019
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2019
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES WERE AROUND ZERO DEGREE C TO POSITIVE 
ONE-HALF DEGREE C NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE LAST 4 WEEKS.
FOR JANUARY 2018 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2018, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 
WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 51.96 INCHES (140 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 16.93 INCHES (99 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 21.67 INCHES (122 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 174.97 INCHES (138 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH 
AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR FEBRUARY 2019. THIS INCREASES THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE 
NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES FOR HAWAII IN FEBRUARY 2019. MOST 
DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS 
DURING FEBRUARY 2019, WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW-FREQUENCY STATE 
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC.
           TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE    LIM  FCST  BLW  MEDIAN  ABV
HILO       A45   71.4   0.5  B55   5.0   8.4   11.1
KAHULUI    A45   71.9   0.6  B55   0.9   1.1   1.8
HONOLULU   A45   73.3   0.5  B55   0.7   1.0   1.4
LIHUE      A45   71.7   0.6  B55   1.3   1.8   4.0
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2019 - FMA 2020
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS 
AND ALASKA FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE ENSO OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS 
RELEVANT TO THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE CURRENT STATE OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE 
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE ABOVE 
AVERAGE ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. POSITIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES 
HAVE PERSISTED WHILE DECREASING IN MAGNITUDE ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC OCEAN,WHILE NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE 
EXPANDED BETWEEN 90-110W. CONVECTION WAS ENHANCED WEST OF THE DATE LINE AND 
SUPPRESSED EAST OF THE DATE LINE, WHILE LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE NEAR 
AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN, AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WERE 
ANOMALOUS WESTERLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MOST MODELS INDICATE PROBABLE 
DEVELOPMENT OF EL NINO WITH PROBABILITIES NEAR 65% FOR CONTINUATION INTO 
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING 2019.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII 
FROM FMA TO JAS 2019 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS THE REGION ACCORDING TO STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. EQUAL CHANCES 
(EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR ALL OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR ASO 2019 AND BEYOND, DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN 
CLIMATE CONDITIONS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES.
WITH THE PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT OF AN EL NINO, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR 
HAWAII FOLLOWS HISTORICAL EL NINO IMPACTS THAT INDICATE STRONG CORRELATIONS 
BETWEEN EL NINO AND INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN 
WINTER AND SPRING. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS CONSISTENT WITH NMME DYNAMICAL 
MODEL FORECASTS AND STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING CONSTRUCTED ANALOG, CANONICAL 
CORRELATION ANALYSIS, AND AN ENSO-OCN TOOL (THAT COMBINES THE IMPACTS OF EL 
NINO AND DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY), FOR FMA THROUGH MJJ 2019. THERE IS 
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE PRECIPITATION 
FORECAST AMONG AVAILABLE FORECAST TOOLS IN JJA 2019 AND LONGER LEADS, SO EQUAL 
CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED.
                      HILO
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2019  A65  71.7   0.4   B65   24.6   34.1   45.5
MAM 2019  A60  72.0   0.5   B60   22.5   28.4   34.0
AMJ 2019  A60  72.9   0.5   B50   21.4   23.7   29.0
MJJ 2019  A55  74.0   0.4   B45   20.2   27.5   29.1
JJA 2019  A45  75.2   0.4    EC   19.4   27.2   31.4
JAS 2019  A40  76.1   0.4    EC   25.2   28.6   33.4
ASO 2019   EC  76.4   0.4    EC   26.1   28.8   33.3
SON 2019   EC  76.2   0.4    EC   24.3   30.2   40.8
OND 2019   EC  75.5   0.4    EC   28.3   34.5   42.0
NDJ 2019   EC  74.2   0.4    EC   26.4   36.6   43.0
DJF 2020   EC  72.8   0.4    EC   19.6   30.2   33.3
JFM 2020   EC  71.8   0.4    EC   22.0   32.0   44.5
FMA 2020   EC  71.7   0.4    EC   24.6   34.1   45.5
                      KAHULUI
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2019  A65  72.3   0.4   B65   3.2    4.1    6.4 
MAM 2019  A60  73.0   0.4   B60   2.5    3.5    4.6 
AMJ 2019  A60  74.3   0.5   B50   1.2    1.6    2.2 
MJJ 2019  A55  76.0   0.5   B45   0.7    1.1    1.8 
JJA 2019  A45  77.7   0.4    EC   0.7    1.1    1.5 
JAS 2019  A40  79.0   0.4    EC   0.8    1.1    1.6 
ASO 2019   EC  79.4   0.4    EC   0.8    1.6    2.5 
SON 2019   EC  79.1   0.4    EC   2.1    3.3    4.8 
OND 2019   EC  77.8   0.4    EC   4.2    5.3    8.1 
NDJ 2019   EC  75.9   0.4    EC   5.2    7.6    9.5 
DJF 2020   EC  73.8   0.4    EC   4.6    6.9    8.7 
JFM 2020   EC  72.5   0.4    EC   4.2    6.2    8.2 
FMA 2020   EC  72.3   0.4    EC   3.2    4.1    6.4 
                      HONOLULU
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2019  A60  73.8   0.4   B65   1.9    3.2    4.7 
MAM 2019  A55  74.8   0.4   B60   1.8    2.6    3.0 
AMJ 2019  A55  76.3   0.4   B50   1.2    1.6    1.8 
MJJ 2019  A50  78.2   0.4   B45   0.8    1.4    1.6 
JJA 2019  A45  79.9   0.4    EC   0.7    0.8    1.3 
JAS 2019  A40  81.3   0.4    EC   1.0    1.4    1.7 
ASO 2019   EC  81.7   0.4    EC   1.6    2.4    3.1 
SON 2019   EC  81.4   0.4    EC   2.5    4.0    5.6 
OND 2019   EC  80.0   0.4    EC   4.4    6.4    8.5 
NDJ 2019   EC  77.7   0.5    EC   3.9    5.6    8.8 
DJF 2020   EC  75.3   0.5    EC   3.7    5.6    8.6 
JFM 2020   EC  73.9   0.4    EC   2.1    4.6    7.8 
FMA 2020   EC  73.8   0.4    EC   1.9    3.2    4.7 
                      LIHUE
          TEMPERATURE           PRECIPITATION
         FCST   AVE   LIM  FCST   BLW  MEDIAN   ABV
FMA 2019  A55  72.1   0.5   B65   5.8    8.4    9.9 
MAM 2019  A50  72.8   0.5   B60   5.3    6.6    8.0 
AMJ 2019  A50  74.2   0.5   B50   4.7    5.5    6.0 
MJJ 2019  A45  76.0   0.5   B45   4.9    5.4    5.9 
JJA 2019  A40  77.7   0.4    EC   4.4    5.3    6.9 
JAS 2019  A40  79.0   0.3    EC   5.3    6.1    7.8 
ASO 2019   EC  79.4   0.3    EC   6.2    7.9    8.4 
SON 2019   EC  79.1   0.3    EC   9.2    10.0   11.2
OND 2019   EC  77.8   0.3    EC   9.2    11.7   15.6
NDJ 2019   EC  75.7   0.3    EC   8.6    12.1   16.9
DJF 2020   EC  73.6   0.4    EC   7.5    8.4    14.0
JFM 2020   EC  72.2   0.4    EC   6.5    8.8    13.8
FMA 2020   EC  72.1   0.5    EC   5.8    8.4    9.9 
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1981-2010 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL 
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE 
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT 
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR 
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT 
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL 
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL 
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID 
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS 
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE 
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU FEB 21, 2019.
$$