Area Forecast Discussion


657 
FXUS65 KABQ 251729 AAB
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1129 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Cold front extending from KLVS-KCQC-KCVS at 17Z to continue moving 
south and westward with occasional nely gusts to around 35kt along 
and in the wake of the boundary. Increasing instability over the nrn
mts will result in isold to sct showers and tstms aft 19Z, which may
be enhanced by the frontal boundary as the convection moves from nw
to se off the higher terrain and into ne NM. Convection to also
develop swd along the central mt chain and possibly from KSAF-KABQ 
as the cold front pushes into the RGV aft 26/00Z. MVFR cigs/vsbys as
well as gusts to 40kt may occur with of the activity over ne and 
north central and mts be occasionally obscured. MVFR cigs/vsbys are
expected to develop along the east slopes of the central mt chain aft
26/06Z as convection wanes, and persist until around 26/15Z.  
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
A back door cold front will move through eastern New Mexico this 
morning with windy north to northeast winds. The front will move 
onto the east slopes of the central mountain chain this afternoon 
and set the stage for showers and thunderstorms. The higher rain 
amounts will focus in the area from near Angel Fire to Raton and Des 
Moines. A few more showers and storms are possible Friday but warmer 
temperatures and drier conditions will keep activity mainly dry with 
gusty and erratic outflow winds. Another back door cold front will 
enter northeastern New Mexico Saturday with another round of showers 
and storms through Saturday night. Sunday will be dry, breezy, and 
warm over the entire area. The next storm system is on target for 
Monday and Tuesday with cooler temperatures, more wind, and better 
chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The overall weather pattern through the weekend will feature warmer 
temperatures, periodic frontal intrusions across eastern NM, and 
daily rounds of showers and storms along and east of the central mt 
chain.
The first back door cold front is moving quickly south thru eastern 
CO early this morning and will push through Clayton around sunrise. 
North winds will briefly hit wind advisory criteria within Union 
County this morning. Surface winds will veer around to the east and 
southeast thru the day which will improve upslope flow along the 
central mt chain. Model guidance continues to trend toward greater 
coverage of showers and storms from the Sangre de Cristo Mts east 
into the high plains late today into tonight. QPF has also trended 
up with 0.25-0.50" possible along the CO border. Farther west into 
the RGV enough mid and low level moisture will be present for a few 
light showers with gusty and erratic outflow winds this evening.
Friday will feature stronger and drier west to southwest flow over 
the region with much warmer temperatures. A few showers and storms 
with gusty and erratic outflows are still possible along and east of 
the central mt chain. Saturday will be similar to Friday but with 
even warmer temperatures and less coverage of dry shower activity. 
The next back door cold front will enter northeastern NM by late 
Saturday afternoon. Guidance is once again trending wetter with 
greater coverage of showers and storms along the CO border thru 
Saturday evening. This boundary will mix out quickly Sunday as flow 
aloft increases ahead of the next upper wave approaching from the 
west. Temperatures will be the warmest on Sunday with low humidity 
and widespread breezy west to southwest winds. The next system is on 
target for Monday and Tuesday and is again trending farther south 
and wetter with a moist back door cold front entering eastern NM. 
Guyer
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The drying trend will continue today most places, except the 
northern mountains and northeast highlands, where a gusty back door 
cold front will arrive with some improved moisture. The front will 
produce wind gusts up to 50 mph across the northeast plains for a 
while this morning. Meanwhile, a weak disturbance in northwest flow 
aloft will interact with the moisture to produce scattered to 
isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of the north 
central mountains this afternoon and evening. The front will push 
through gaps in the central mountain chain with a gusty east canyon 
wind from Santa Fe southward tonight. In the wake of the front, much 
of the forecast area will experience a few percent of humidity 
improvement on Friday. A stronger disturbance will also cross the 
central and southern Rockies on Friday producing scattered to 
isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern and central areas.
Another back door cold front will dip into the northeast on Saturday
with another chance of showers and thunderstorms along and east of 
the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Except for some cooling across parts 
of the northeast today, highs are expected to continue an upward 
trend through the end of the week.
Fire weather concerns will increase early next week as an upper 
level trough crosses the Four Corners region, and a broad, slow-
moving upper level low pressure system then gradually crosses the 
northern and central Rockies. Models still differ on the timing of 
the upper level trough that will cross the Four Corners Monday 
through Tuesday or Tuesday night. However, southwest winds are 
expected to strengthen ahead of the system on Sunday, when gusts 
from 30 to 40 mph will be possible, with the strongest winds along 
and east of the central mountain chain. With widespread critically 
low humidities, Haines from 5 to 6 and high temperatures around 7 to 
14 degrees above normal, widespread critical fire weather conditions 
are likely Sunday along and east of the central mountain chain. 
Critical conditions should abate Monday and Tuesday as the upper 
trough crossing the region draws a moist back door cold front 
through the plains and produces a chance of showers and 
thunderstorms across northern and eastern areas.  However, dry air 
will invade from the southwest on Wednesday, and winds should again 
strengthen, with a risk of critical fire weather conditions becoming 
more widespread again in the east where high temperatures may still 
be above normal despite some cooling in the wake of the upper trough.
44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$