Area Forecast Discussion


826 
FXUS63 KABR 251125 AAA
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
525 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018
See updated aviation discussion below.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018
Only real forecast challenge is the winds today. Not much of a 
gradient, however 1/2km winds are close to 30kts. A westerly 
component will aid in mixing, but at the same time we will 
experience widespread weak warm advection. Additionally, our snow
cover will limit mixing. Mixed winds in BUFKIT only top out 
around 20kts. Additionally, downslope conditions will also aid in 
enhancement in the lee of the Coteau. Will continue to mention 
blowing snow today, but appears the main issue will be drifting 
onto road surfaces warmed by the sun, but still below freezing
resulting in slick spots. Otherwise the next 24 hour period will 
be uneventful.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018
The region will be between surface high pressure to the south and 
low pressure to the north Monday morning. A weak frontal boundary 
will track across the CWA Monday night, with high pressure settling 
in on Tuesday. The models are beginning to come into closer 
agreement with a low pressure system set to track across the Central 
Plains on Wednesday to near the Great Lakes on Thursday. As far as 
precipitation with this system, the GFS and ECMWF continue to keep 
it south and east of the area, while the slightly further north 
Canadian brings some light snow to the far eastern CWA Wednesday 
night into Thursday. High pressure will bring quiet conditions 
Thursday night through Friday night. Another low pressure system 
approaches on Saturday, but for now, there is pretty good agreement 
that most of the precipitation associated with it will remain north 
of the CWA, so will just go with small POPs across the northern part 
of the area.
Mild temperatures will be the rule throughout the extended period, 
with highs in the upper 20s to upper 30s, and overnight lows in the 
upper single digits to the teens.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018
An area of MVFR cigs will slide across the central and eastern
part of the area this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will
prevail today and tonight.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Connelly 
LONG TERM...Parkin 
AVIATION...Parkin