FXUS61 KAKQ 240902
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
502 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
High pressure will slide farther out to sea during today, as a
warm front lifts into the area from the west. A weak surface
trough will cross the region tonight into Tuesday morning, then
slides offshore during Tuesday. High pressure will build into
and over the area for Tuesday night into Thursday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...
Early this morning, weak sfc high pressure was centered just off
the Mid Atlc coast. The sky was clear or mostly clear acrs the
area with temps ranging thru the 60s to near 70. The high will
shift farther out to sea during today, as a warm front lifts
into the area from the WSW. The warm front will lift ENE thru
the region during today, possibly accompanied by isolated to
sctd showers/tstms mainly over the NW counties (20-50% PoPs).
Any stronger storm could produce gusty winds and heavy
downpours. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny, very warm and
increasingly more humid today with highs ranging from the mid
80s to lower 90s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...
A weak s/w aloft and sfc trough (tough to call it a cold
front/more of a sfc dew point front) will cross the area tonight
into Tue morning, then slides offshore during Tue. Will have
PoPs 20-50% for tonight into early Tue morning, with highest in
the W and N. Will hang onto 15-25% PoPs over the ern third of
the region during Tue, as the boundary may linger there. Tue
will become very warm-hot, but with some lowering of the dew
points, esply over the wrn half of the area. Sfc high pressure
builds into and over the region from the west Tue night and
Wed, resulting in dry wx and very warm conditions with moderate
Lows tonight 70-75. Highs on Tue in the lower 90s
inland/Piedmont, and in the mid 80s to near 90 at the coast.
Lows Tue night will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs
on Wed around 90 inland/Piedmont, and in the mid to upper 80s
at the coast.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...
The extended forecast period will feature typical Summer wx. A
very warm-hot period of wx w/ hi pres sfc-aloft remaining near
the SE CONUS coast. Cannot rule out ISOLD (diurnal) convection
Thu-Fri. Blend of the models suggests sharpening of trough aloft
next weekend into the NE/Mid-Atlantic states which may result in
better pcpn CHCs/higher PoPs (than climo).
Lows Wed night in the u60s-l70s. Highs Thu-Sat mainly in the
u80s-l90s...w/ nighttime lows in the u60s-m70s. Highs Sun in
the 80s N to around 90F S.
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...
Weak high pressure centered just off the Mid Atlc coast early
this morning, will shift farther out to sea during today as a
warm front lifts into the area from the WSW. SCT-BKN CU are
expected to develop late this morning thru this aftn along with
SSW winds 8-12 kt. A chc of showers/tstms will affect the area
from late this aftn into early Tue morning, as the warm
front/weak trough of low pressure moves thru the region. Will
have 30-50% chc from RIC-SBY-PHF, and 20-30% for ORF/ECG. Brief
flight restrictions are possible in any showers/tstms, otherwise
expect mainly VFR conditions today into early Tue morning.
Other than isolated PoPs over the ern third of the area during
Tue, expect mainly dry wx late Tue thru Thu.
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...
Latest Obs reflect S-SW flow 10-15 kt across the waters this
morning. Sfc high pressure lingers offshore today, as a weak
warm front lifts across the region, and a cool front/trough
approaches from the west. Winds remain S-SW ~10-15 kt. Pressure
gradient tightens this afternoon and this evening, as sfc
trough approaches. Winds will back to the E-SE ~15 kt, with
occasional gusts ~20 knots by late this afternoon through late
evening. Expect predominate winds to remain sub-SCA, but some
short-lived SCA gusts are possible in the lower and middle Bay
this evening. Due to the marginal nature of these winds, will
hold off with issuance of any SCA headlines for now. waves
1-2ft, but seas increase to 2-3 ft tonight in wind wave and
building SE swell.
A weak, perhaps convectively-enhanced, trough will cross the
area on Tuesday aftn/evening with winds veering around to the
west in the Bay for a period before resuming southwesterly flow
ahead of a weak cold front. The front crosses the area late
Tuesday/early Wednesday, but with little to no airmass change
behind the front, winds will become NNE but remain aob 10 knots
in its wake, becoming SSE by Wed night. The remainder of the
week will see generally quiet marine conditions with prevailing
southerly flow, ~10-15 knots, and waves/seas 1-2 ft.