Area Forecast Discussion


106 
FXUS61 KAKQ 240902
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
502 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slide farther out to sea during today, as a
warm front lifts into the area from the west. A weak surface
trough will cross the region tonight into Tuesday morning, then
slides offshore during Tuesday. High pressure will build into
and over the area for Tuesday night into Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...
Early this morning, weak sfc high pressure was centered just off
the Mid Atlc coast. The sky was clear or mostly clear acrs the
area with temps ranging thru the 60s to near 70. The high will
shift farther out to sea during today, as a warm front lifts 
into the area from the WSW. The warm front will lift ENE thru
the region during today, possibly accompanied by isolated to
sctd showers/tstms mainly over the NW counties (20-50% PoPs).
Any stronger storm could produce gusty winds and heavy
downpours. Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny, very warm and 
increasingly more humid today with highs ranging from the mid 
80s to lower 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...
A weak s/w aloft and sfc trough (tough to call it a cold 
front/more of a sfc dew point front) will cross the area tonight
into Tue morning, then slides offshore during Tue. Will have 
PoPs 20-50% for tonight into early Tue morning, with highest in
the W and N. Will hang onto 15-25% PoPs over the ern third of
the region during Tue, as the boundary may linger there. Tue 
will become very warm-hot, but with some lowering of the dew 
points, esply over the wrn half of the area. Sfc high pressure
builds into and over the region from the west Tue night and 
Wed, resulting in dry wx and very warm conditions with moderate
humidity.
Lows tonight 70-75. Highs on Tue in the lower 90s
inland/Piedmont, and in the mid 80s to near 90 at the coast. 
Lows Tue night will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs 
on Wed around 90 inland/Piedmont, and in the mid to upper 80s 
at the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 PM EDT Sunday...
The extended forecast period will feature typical Summer wx. A 
very warm-hot period of wx w/ hi pres sfc-aloft remaining near
the SE CONUS coast. Cannot rule out ISOLD (diurnal) convection
Thu-Fri. Blend of the models suggests sharpening of trough aloft 
next weekend into the NE/Mid-Atlantic states which may result in
better pcpn CHCs/higher PoPs (than climo). 
Lows Wed night in the u60s-l70s. Highs Thu-Sat mainly in the 
u80s-l90s...w/ nighttime lows in the u60s-m70s. Highs Sun in 
the 80s N to around 90F S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...
Weak high pressure centered just off the Mid Atlc coast early
this morning, will shift farther out to sea during today as a
warm front lifts into the area from the WSW. SCT-BKN CU are 
expected to develop late this morning thru this aftn along with
SSW winds 8-12 kt. A chc of showers/tstms will affect the area
from late this aftn into early Tue morning, as the warm
front/weak trough of low pressure moves thru the region. Will
have 30-50% chc from RIC-SBY-PHF, and 20-30% for ORF/ECG. Brief
flight restrictions are possible in any showers/tstms, otherwise
expect mainly VFR conditions today into early Tue morning. 
Other than isolated PoPs over the ern third of the area during
Tue, expect mainly dry wx late Tue thru Thu.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 340 AM EDT Monday...
Latest Obs reflect S-SW flow 10-15 kt across the waters this
morning. Sfc high pressure lingers offshore today, as a weak
warm front lifts across the region, and a cool front/trough 
approaches from the west. Winds remain S-SW ~10-15 kt. Pressure 
gradient tightens this afternoon and this evening, as sfc 
trough approaches. Winds will back to the E-SE ~15 kt, with 
occasional gusts ~20 knots by late this afternoon through late 
evening. Expect predominate winds to remain sub-SCA, but some 
short-lived SCA gusts are possible in the lower and middle Bay 
this evening. Due to the marginal nature of these winds, will 
hold off with issuance of any SCA headlines for now. waves 
1-2ft, but seas increase to 2-3 ft tonight in wind wave and 
building SE swell. 
A weak, perhaps convectively-enhanced, trough will cross the 
area on Tuesday aftn/evening with winds veering around to the 
west in the Bay for a period before resuming southwesterly flow 
ahead of a weak cold front. The front crosses the area late 
Tuesday/early Wednesday, but with little to no airmass change 
behind the front, winds will become NNE but remain aob 10 knots 
in its wake, becoming SSE by Wed night. The remainder of the 
week will see generally quiet marine conditions with prevailing 
southerly flow, ~10-15 knots, and waves/seas 1-2 ft.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...ALB/TMG
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/RHR