Area Forecast Discussion


436 
FXUS64 KAMA 161107
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
607 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs...
Another day of scattered to isolated thunderstorms is expected.
VFR conditions will prevail otherwise with light surface winds and
no low clouds.  Higher coverage of thunderstorms expected in
northern sections, closer to weak surface boundary and in region
of higher instability.  Have included PROB30 for thunder at 
northern terminals between 21z and 03z Tuesday.  Brief MVFR or
lower visibilities may occur in thunderstorms.  Erratic gusts can
be expected near thunderstorms.
Cockrell 
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 426 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/ 
DISCUSSION..
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible again this
afternoon and evening. Retained the POPs from previous package 
keeping isolated coverage in southern TX Panhandle even though 
some of the CAMs (TTU/HRRR) suggest more scattered coverage. This 
was based on satellite/model trends that indicate drier and warmer
mid/upper level air moving in from the southeast which should 
limit updraft intensity due to smaller CAPE values and more dry 
air entrainment compared to locations further north. NAM/GFS/RAP 
have trended down on instability for most of the area with latest 
model soundings showing relatively small MLCAPE values (<1000 
J/kg) in the afternoon as low level moisture mixes east. That 
being said, a narrow plume of monsoonal moisture (w/ decent 700mb 
theta-E advection) should be draped across the northern zones as a
subtle shortwave helps kick off thunderstorms from the Raton Mesa
down into the OK Panhandle. Storms that develop could produce 
heavy rain and gusty winds, especially given the steep low level 
lapse rates in the late afternoon. Other storms could develop 
further south along pre-existing boundaries. Storm motion will be 
near zero given very weak wind field throughout the vertical 
column, so localized flooding will also be a concern with storms 
today. High temperatures today will be similar to yesterday, with 
mid 90s being common. 
Upper level high pressure over southeast CONUS and southwest 
CONUS begin to merge Monday into Tuesday. The high pressure aloft 
is expected to strengthen through Thursday as the 200mb center 
shifts over NM/AZ. Precip chances look to be lower and mainly 
confined to the northern and eastern zones Tuesday and Wednesday, 
as relatively dry low level air starts invading the area. There is
some uncertainty, especially with Wednesday as weak northwest 
flow does begin to show up in the models from 500mb-200mb. There 
is also one model (NAM) suggesting a frontal boundary will surge 
into the area Tuesday night and stall on Wednesday, but this is 
definitely the outlier solution at this time. All other models 
suggest rising temperatures with 850mb temps around 30-34 deg C 
Wed through Friday, with Thursday being the warmest day. Thus,
unless there is a major change to the forecast, heat advisory 
temperatures will be possible for portions of the area, 
especially Thursday and Friday.
Ward
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  69  97  70  98 /  20  20   5   5   5 
Beaver OK                  96  70  96  71  99 /  40  30  20  10   5 
Boise City OK              91  66  94  66  94 /  40  40  20  20  10 
Borger TX                  96  71  99  74 102 /  30  30  10  10   5 
Boys Ranch TX              95  69 100  69 100 /  30  30   5  10   5 
Canyon TX                  94  68  98  70  98 /  20  20   5   5   5 
Clarendon TX               96  70  98  69  99 /  20  20   5   5   5 
Dalhart TX                 93  64  95  67  95 /  40  40  10  20  10 
Guymon OK                  95  68  97  69  96 /  40  30  20  20   5 
Hereford TX                92  67  95  69  98 /  20  20   5   5   5 
Lipscomb TX                97  71  96  72 101 /  40  30  20  10  10 
Pampa TX                   94  69  96  69  99 /  30  30  20   5   5 
Shamrock TX                98  72  99  72 100 /  20  20  10   5   5 
Wellington TX              99  72 101  73 102 /  20  20   5   5   5 
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
03/07