Area Forecast Discussion


381 
FXUS64 KAMA 242245
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
545 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.AVIATION...
00Z Issuance...All sites are expected to remain VFR through the
period. Winds will generally be southerly to southwesterly with
gusts picking up in the morning to around 20kts for the day.
Confidence of any storms to hit the TAF sites tomorrow afternoon
is very low. 
Beat
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 244 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ 
SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Tuesday...
A couple windows for thunderstorms can be found over the next 24-36 
hours. Though it may be modulated some by storms upstream, low level 
moisture should be fairly impressive this evening and overnight. 
Think that lack of synoptic forcing will limit coverage of 
convection this evening as instability alone may not be enough given 
rising heights. If any storms form, they will have a chance to be 
strong to severe, but the overall limited nature of instability (ie 
1500 J/kg-ish) this evening should keep anything from getting too 
out of hand.
Interestingly, models indicate a robust elevated instability 
environment (up to 5000 J/kg MUCAPE) early Tue AM, but storm 
initiation looks quite unlikely.  If for some reason a storm is able 
to form in the early morning hours Tuesday, barely sufficient shear 
would give it the potential to produce severe weather, namely large 
hail.
The environment looks to become nearly uncapped tomorrow afternoon 
ahead of and even behind a developing sfc trough.  Continued height 
rises may keep storm chances more limited than they otherwise would 
be, but would not be surprised at all to see a few storms form 
tomorrow afternoon/evening, mainly along and east of US 60. 
Instability/shear could support a few multicells and possible even 
some brief supercellular features with anything that can form.
Temps will be on their way up with highs mainly in the 90s expected 
tmrw.
Simpson 
LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Monday... 
Models and ensembles remain in good agreement with mid-level pattern.  
500 mb heights rise Tuesday night and Wednesday as ridge axis expands
through West Texas and the Panhandles.  Ridge will dominate the weather 
picture for the next several days across the southern plains and eastern
New Mexico with very light mid-level flow over the forecast area through
Thursday. By Friday, ridge axis begins migrating west, with some 
signs of an easterly wave or weakness reaching the Texas Gulf 
coast on Saturday.  This weakness expected to move northwest 
across Texas Sunday and Monday.  All of this spells warm 
conditions with high temperatures mainly in the lower- to mid-90s 
and low mainly evening pops for thunderstorms.  Palo Duro Canyon 
expected to reach highs in the mid- to upper-90s.
Tuesday evening pops across southeast and east have been increased 
slightly.  Ridge-rounding vorticity maximum encounters instability axis
along and east of dryline.  On Wednesday, afternoon isolated 
thunderstorms expected to move into western sections from eastern New
Mexico, spreading east and northeast during the evening, following 
700 mb theta-e axis as another perturbation traverses the area.  
Isolated evening thunderstorms may occur on Thursday as another 
disturbance encounters the instability plume.  Friday through Sunday
expected to be dry, owing to the weak flow aloft with the retrograding
ridge.  Low pops offered by Blend in northwest have been accepted Sunday 
night and Monday.
Cockrell
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
16/14