Area Forecast Discussion


801 
FXUS64 KAMA 191906
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
206 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday Night...
An upper ridge will build in from the west tonight and over the 
Panhandles Saturday before exiting the forecast area by Saturday 
night. A shortwave trough will tracks east and north out of the 
southern and central Rockies late Saturday afternoon through 
Saturday night. Surface low develops over eastern/southeastern 
Colorado late tonight and early Saturday with a surface trough 
extending south across eastern New Mexico. The surface low and 
trough will deepen Saturday into Saturday with an 850 mb low level 
southwesterly jet 30 to 40 knots expected to develop Saturday night 
across the Panhandles. South and southwest surface winds will 
increase to around 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts Saturday afternoon 
through Saturday night. Dry and unseasonably warm through Saturday 
night. 
Schneider
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday... 
Flow aloft turns to southwest flow on Sunday thanks to the ridge 
passing to the east and a closed upper low digging into the western 
CONUS. The low continues to dig south until it gets to the desert 
southwest nearing Mexico. At the surface, the cold front has slowed 
down and looks to cross into the Panhandles early Monday morning. 
This will mean Easter Sunday should be dry and warm for the area 
with more sunshine. As the upper low gets closer, it sends out a 
couple shortwaves which will pass through the Panhandles on Monday 
and Tuesday, bringing precip chances back. Between the shortwave and 
the cold front Monday, there should be enough lift for 
thunderstorms. Medium range guidance suggests the front will hit 
Lubbock's area and then stall out and lift back towards the area on 
Tuesday. Thinking this may have some lift for isolated thunder with 
mostly rain showers. Cloud cover and precip will limit sun, thus 
cooler temps. By mid-week, models have some difficulty resolving 
what happens with the split flow from the northern and southern 
branches of the 500mb flow. In general, they try to show the low 
crossing Texas around Wednesday, and the surface front should push 
through the area, leaving dry air in its wake. Northwest flow and 
ridging aloft will keep the end of the week dry and back on a 
warming trend. 
Beat
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions may be present on Saturday and
Sunday in the northwest Panhandles. Fuels are starting to green up
but there are still pockets of dry fuels that may create some
initial attack activity. RH values will be dropping into the low
teens to near 10 percent and winds will be breezy around 15-25mph.
RFTI values will be around 2. 
Beat
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                47  87  55  85  50 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Beaver OK                  44  88  54  88  52 /   0   0   5   0   5 
Boise City OK              44  87  49  82  47 /   0   0   5   5   5 
Borger TX                  51  88  59  87  53 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Boys Ranch TX              45  89  53  86  50 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Canyon TX                  46  88  53  86  50 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Clarendon TX               45  88  58  89  53 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Dalhart TX                 42  88  49  83  49 /   0   0   5   0   5 
Guymon OK                  44  89  52  86  49 /   0   0   5   0   5 
Hereford TX                46  87  52  84  49 /   0   0   5   0   5 
Lipscomb TX                44  86  57  89  53 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Pampa TX                   46  85  55  85  50 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Shamrock TX                45  86  56  90  54 /   0   0   5   0   0 
Wellington TX              46  87  58  91  55 /   0   0   5   0   0 
&&
.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
11/16