Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KBRO 161051 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
551 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
...12z Aviation Update...
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle. A
few passing high clouds can be expected from time to time this
morning, however, these clouds should remain around 15-20kft. The
primary story will be winds as southerly/southeasterly surface
flow will increase by late morning and continue through sunset. 
Some gusts up to around 25kt can't be ruled out. Guidance is
pinging some low level cloud development early Tuesday as this
cycle ends, however, not confidence that we'll drop below VFR at 
this time. 
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/ 
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday): The upper level inverted trough 
will continue to move westward today. Behind it, a plume of mid 
level moisture is in place, which will keep some mid and high level 
cloudiness across portions of the region this morning. The primary 
story today will be the continuation of the last few days...strong 
surface heating with temperatures approaching the century mark along 
and west of the I69C corridor as well as winds gusting from 20-25kts.
Temperatures overnight tonight will continue to be around or perhaps 
even slightly above average across the region. In the afternoon, 
heat index values will top 100 degree for most locations. Although 
heating is strong, a strongly mixed boundary layer will help 
mitigate heat index values. As high pressure continues to build 
westward through the short term, expect hot, dry, and windy 
conditions to prevail. 
LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday): Hot and humid 
conditions will prevail across deep south Texas as 500mb ridging 
remains centered over Texas through the weekend. No rainfall is 
expected through the forecast period as low to mid level moisture 
remains very limited. Above normal temperatures are expected to 
continue through Sunday. High temperatures each day will range from 
the 80s at the beaches, mid to upper 90s near the coast, and a 
few degrees above 100 degrees west of the I-69E corridor. Heat 
index values will range between 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon 
and may approach heat advisory conditions in some area by the end
of the week. Overnight low temperatures will generally be in the 
MARINE (Today through Tuesday): Buoys this morning across the 
Laguna Madre are indicating winds are just below cautionary 
wording at this time. Unfortunately, winds will increase again by 
mid to late morning between troughing upstream and a high pressure
building westward with time. Pressure gradient will be far more 
relaxed across the offshore waters than near shore. Expect 
cautionary wording for the Laguna at least.
Tuesday Night through Friday Night...A weak pressure gradient across 
the lower Texas coast will support generally moderate winds and low 
to moderate seas through the period. 
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