FXUS64 KBRO 251937
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
237 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday night): 500mb ridge across
northern Mexico and the 500mb trough across the eastern United
States will continue to provide subsidence across south Texas
tonight into Friday. At the surface...high pressure across the
southern plains will settle across eastern half of the state
tonight into Friday. The dry air and clear skies across the CWA
will allow lows to fall into the lower to mid 60s tonight. Expect
very warm temperatures Friday with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s across the Rio Grande valley Fri afternoon with not much in
the way of cloud cover tomorrow. Lows Fri night will return to
near normal with an onshore flow returning across the lower Texas
coast as the surface ridge across Texas moves eastward.
LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday): The forecast will continue
to advertise a fairly quiet and generally dry long term period.
The mid level pattern will remain fairly zonal through the period.
A mid level feature which was previously forecast to move into
the Southwest United States with destabilizing flow over Texas and
the RG valley now looks like it will eject more quickly into the
Plains. Still, southwest flow aloft over the Sierra Madre range
could help kick off a few showers or storms Tuesday night, though
activity is not forecast to make it into the area from the west.
The same situation will be possible Wednesday night. The better
dynamics will be farther north as weak short wave troughs traverse
the mid level flow, and storm systems develop and move east over
Moderate southeast winds will prevail most of the period, becoming
breezy at times near the coast, with near normal to above average
temperatures. High temperatures will be in the mid 80s east to mid
90s west, with a few upper 90s there on Tuesday and Wednesday. More
clouds will be in the forecast for the week after a sunny weekend as
moisture builds up in the lower levels. Dew points will drift higher
for eastern sections, to the lower 70s, and to near 70 out west,
ensuring above normal overnight low temps.
Tonight through Friday night: Seas were near 4 feet with north
winds near 10 knots at buoy020 early this afternoon. Light east to
northeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters tonight
with surface high pressure across northeast Mexico and the
northwest Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will remain weak
across the lower Texas coast Friday. Light north to northeast
winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Friday before
veering to the east and southeast Fri night as surface high
pressure across east-central Texas Friday moves eastward Fri
Saturday through Tuesday night: High pressure will remain
in control over the Northwest Gulf this weekend and into early
next week. Moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas
permeate the long term forecast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNSVILLE 63 88 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARLINGEN 61 89 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
MCALLEN 64 91 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 64 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 80 70 76 / 0 0 0 0
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