FXUS62 KCAE 220530
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
130 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Deep low pressure will continue lifting north along the New
England coast. Dry high pressure and cool temperatures will
dominate through Friday. East coast troughing will bring more
active weather for the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Weakening pressure gradient over the region tonight and winds
have diminished. However, winds will still be somewhat gusty
on area lakes.
Dry airmass and downslope flow over the forecast area resulting
in clear skies. Mixing overnight due to the low-level winds may
keep temps up. However, with good cold advection across the
region, stayed close to guidance with mid 30s for minimum
temperatures. Frost not expected due to strong boundary layer
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper trough axis will scoot off the coast on Thursday
while surface high pressure builds into the region from the
west. Winds will be lighter on Thursday as the pressure gradient
relaxes with gusts less than 20 mph. Northwest winds become
light Thursday night, and although temperatures are forecast
near or just above freezing, frost may be possible by Friday
morning. High pressure will push further east on Friday
continuing to promote dry weather across the area. The airmass
will moderate slightly between Thursday and Friday with warming
temperatures and higher dew points. Moisture will deepen some
Friday night associated with an area of low pressure approaching
the area from the Mississippi Valley region. However, there is
only a slight chance of showers over the northwest counties.
Temperatures Friday night are expected to be too warm for any
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface low pressure over the Mississippi Valley region will
bring a warm front into the area on Saturday where it is
expected to stall and then sink south of the area Saturday
night. Cool high pressure will wedge into the area from the
north in the wake of the front and will promote northeasterly
low level flow. Wedging is expected to continue on Monday before
weakening on Tuesday. Continued to indicate generally slight
chance or chance pops through Monday with drier conditions
expected Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be cool under
the wedge over the weekend and will see a warming trend by the
middle of next week.
.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence for VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Dry airmass resulting in clear skies. Northwest winds around 10
knots. Could see wind gusts around 20 knots during the
afternoon. Winds becoming light this evening as high pressure
builds in from the west.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of showers and associated
restrictions Saturday afternoon through Monday as a frontal
bounday moves through the area. Wedge conditions possible on