Area Forecast Discussion


587 
FXUS61 KCAR 181017
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
517 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moving to the south of the state this morning will
bring light snow to the area into the mid morning hours. High
pressure builds in tonight. A warm front will lift north of the
region Monday then sink back south and stall Monday night into 
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc low is south of Cape Cod as of 08z and heading ene with 
time drg the ovrngt hrs. Snow has blossomed ovr most of New 
England with srn areas for the past 2-3 hrs. Expect this wl 
continue to expand with time and eventually move into nrn zones 
in the next hour or two. Snow wl lkly be vry brief acrs the 
north with only arnd 1 inch expected to fall thru the early
morning. Srn zones wl lkly see snow blossom along inverted trof
fm now thru 12z with heaviest axis shifting thru the mrng. This
wl be assoc with left exit region of upr lvl jet streak as it 
conts to dive south arnd base of s/wv trof zipping thru Great 
Lks at this time.
Hires models continue to advertise enhanced snowfall occurring 
mainly ovr Washington County as trof clrs the state btwn 15z-18z. 
Hv bumped total snow amnts up just a tad mainly to the north of 
Penobscot Bay up thru the Dover-Foxcroft area. May see around 3-4 
inches in these locations. Wl continue with winter wx advisory for 
coastal Hancock but wl not make any chgs to headlines at this
time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will exit to the east Monday while a warm front
lifts north of the region. Mostly cloudy/partly sunny skies are
expected across northern areas Monday, with mostly/partly sunny
skies Downeast. High pressure builds north of Maine Monday 
night which will allow the frontal boundary to sink back across 
the forecast area and stall, though where the front stalls is 
still uncertain. A disturbance will cross the region Monday 
night with an area of precipitation. South of the frontal 
boundary expect precipitation in the form of rain, with snow or 
a wintry mix in the colder air north of the front. The front 
remains stalled across the forecast area Tuesday. Precipitation 
will remain in the form of rain south of the front. To the north
of the front, expect snow or a wintry mix in the morning 
possibly changing to rain during the afternoon. Low pressure 
tracks northwest of the region Tuesday night drawing the 
boundary back north in the form of a warm front. Generally 
expect rain across the forecast area Tuesday night, though a 
wintry mix is possible early across northern areas. Fog is also 
expected across the forecast area Tuesday into Tuesday night. 
Temperatures will be at above normal levels Monday/Tuesday 
though temperatures will be dependent on the location of the 
front.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The low tracks north of Maine Wednesday, drawing a cold front
across the region later Wednesday. Rain showers are expected in
advance of the front Wednesday. Rain showers will end Downeast
in the wake of the cold front Wednesday night, with rain showers
tapering to snow showers across the north and mountains. High
pressure then builds across the region Thursday into Friday.
Uncertainty exists Friday night into Saturday regarding the 
timing of possible low pressure. Temperatures will be at much 
above normal levels Wednesday. Temperatures Thursday through 
Saturday will be at near normal, to slightly above normal, 
levels.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Nrn terminals MVFR for next 1-2 hrs before IFR snow 
briefly moves in after 08z. FVE will likely remain MVFR thru 16z
Sun, with CAR, PQI and HUL becoming MVFR again after 12z. For 
BGR and BHB expect IFR through 13z in the morning as snow will 
impact areas as system moves south of the state. MVFR expected 
after 15z before skies clear by 18z.
SHORT TERM: Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across 
northern areas Monday, with generally VFR conditions across the
remainder of the region. MVFR to LIFR conditions will develop 
Monday night then persist into Tuesday. IFR/LIFR conditions are
then expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with VFR/MVFR
conditions later Wednesday. VFR conditions are expected 
Thursday. 
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind gusts remain just below SCA levels this morning
before dropping further through tonight. Seas will remain around
3-4 feet through the end of the period.
SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions are expected Monday
through Tuesday night. Visibilities will be reduced in rain and
fog Monday night into Tuesday night.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for 
     MEZ029.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Near Term...Farrar
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Farrar/Norcross
Marine...Farrar/Norcross