Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KCLE 250718
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
318 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018
Low pressure will develop over Lake Michigan today and then move 
northeast through the central Great Lakes.  Meanwhile, the low will 
deepen and force a warm front to lift northeast across the area 
early this afternoon. A cold front will move east across the local 
area late tonight and Wednesday morning.  High pressure will build 
northeast out of the Central Plains states to Pennsylvania by 
Wednesday night. Another low pressure system will move northeast to 
James Bay by Thursday night forcing a cold front east across the 
area Friday.
Large amplitude upper level ridge will build east into the eastern 
Pacific Ocean forcing vigorous upper level trough to dive into the 
mid section of the United States.  This in turn will cause ridging 
to amplify over the east coast through tonight.  The upper level 
trough will become somewhat negatively tilted by tonight and this 
will cause surface low pressure to increase in intensity as it 
tracks northeast into central Ontario, Canada.  Warm air will 
continue to push northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico with a strong 
support of deep moisture from the Gulf as well.  Surface high 
pressure will begin to build in from the west with much drier and 
cooler air Wednesday.
In the mean time, large area of rain over the eastern half of the 
area will continue to advance northeast and out of the region. 
Models suggest some destabilization will take place over the western 
portions of the area during the next few hours as reinforcing warm 
front and this air will advance east through the morning hours. 
begins to lift north.  This trend will support the threat for 
thunderstorms from west to east during the day today. Latest radar 
and lightning detection systems indicate thunderstorms will continue 
to develop in the more unstable air over Indiana and advance 
northeast today.  Main concern today will be the proximity of the 
warm front to the local area. Nose of the low level jet will push 
northeast into the local area by this evening.  925 MB winds alone 
reach 45 knots over northern Ohio and western Lake Erie.  Hodographs 
support the possibility for tornadoes; especially in the western 
third of the forecast area.  But, main threat will be strong 
damaging winds in thunderstorms.
As the cold front approaches, the threat for showers and 
thunderstorms; some possibly severe, will move east into the area 
this evening. Front is not expected to push east of the area until 
late Wednesday morning. There is a diminishing threat for 
thunderstorms toward Wednesday morning just ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures will remain mild today and tonight in the warm sector 
and then drop back a tad for Wednesday post cold front. 
By the start of the short term the entire area will be dry as high 
pressure begins to build over the region.  The high will dominate 
through the end of the workweek and will see dry weather persist 
into the weekend.  Thursday will be a cool day but the area should 
rebound to near normal for Friday.
Not many changes to the long term today.  Models still struggling to 
determine where a stalled front will set up over the weekend.  Best 
guess right now is that it will be somewhere near Lake Erie which 
means precip chances late Saturday through early Sunday will be at 
the northern end of the area.  The front will eventually push south 
of the area on Sunday and have removed all mention of rain from the 
forecast.  Better chances for precip will occur later Monday into 
Monday night as a wave approaches from the west. Saturday and Monday 
will see seasonable high temperatures but Sunday will be cool. 
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A mix of LIFR ceiling and VFR ceilings with the rain taking
place across the forecast area this morning. Expecting large
area of rain to continue to push northeast of the area this
morning. Then, expecting a chance for showers and thunderstorms
across the entire area today well ahead of the cold front. Best
chance for a return back to rain will be later this evening just
ahead of the cold front. Ceilings will be up and down through
the day into the evening. Winds will be breezy through this
forecast period as well ahead of the front in the southerly
flow. Strongest winds and nearly VFR conditions expected at Erie
in the downsloping flow.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR across NE OH/NW PA Wednesday into Thursday.
Winds at the Erie Airport continue to gust to 30 knots but buoy 
reports just offshore show winds of no more than 20 knots.  West of 
Erie winds along the shore are generally no more than 15 knots 
although I suspect they may be a tad higher further out.  Winds will 
continue to slowly diminish this morning and will let the small 
craft expire at mid morning.  South to southwest flow generally no 
more than 15 knots will then continue till a cold front arrives late 
tonight and Wednesday morning.  The front should be east of the lake 
by 18z. Northwest flow behind the front should be strong enough for 
more small craft headlines.  Winds will quickly diminish Wednesday 
night as a ridge builds across the lake.  Light southwest flow is 
expected both Thursday and Friday. Another weak boundary will sag 
south across the lake Friday night causing the flow to briefly 
return to a northerly direction.  The front will stall just to the 
south on Saturday with the flow becoming light and variable. 
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for 
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Kubina