Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS61 KCLE 151805
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
205 PM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018
A weak front will cross the area today and continue southeast of 
the area. Low pressure will move across the Great Lakes region 
on Monday and extend a cold front across the area Monday night. 
High pressure will build in behind the cold front and become 
centered over the area by Wednesday. Low pressure will then 
approach the Great Lakes region by the end of the week.
A weak cap near 800 mb and subsidence aloft seem to be winning
out so far today with respect to convective development. A
thicker cu field has formed both along the lake breeze and
across inland portions of NE Ohio and NW PA. Meanwhile cu is
struggling to develop in NW Ohio. Will update the forecast to
remove any mention of precip and partly cloudy conditions for
NW Ohio and lower pops across the east where any showers that 
develop look like they will be more isolated in coverage. Will 
keep the isolated thunderstorm wording but not convinced we will
get thunder given the skinny cape and weak lapse rates aloft. 
Previous discussion...
Low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region on Monday 
and will move into a warm and humid airmass. Diurnal convection 
will be expected on Monday afternoon given the airmass and with 
a cold front moving in from the west. The best precipitation 
timing will be with the front itself and have kept some likely 
pop mention for Monday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday and 
Monday continue to be warm with upper 80s to near 90 for Sunday 
and perhaps a touch cooler on Monday, but still above normal.
Cold front will be moving east through the area Monday night. 
Expecting convection to be ongoing at the start of the short term 
period, especially across the eastern part of the forecast area. 
Have sped up pops progressing through the area Monday night and 
early Tuesday, but forecast remains fairly similar to previous 
iteration. High pressure will quickly build into the region Tuesday 
and drift across the region through Wednesday night, with dry 
conditions expected. Have pops tapering off early Tuesday across the 
eastern part of the area, but expecting most of the area to be dry 
by 12Z Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will be in the low 80s, but will 
struggle to reach 80 across much of the area on Wednesday.
High pressure will keep conditions dry Thursday and Thursday night 
as it moves off the mid Atlantic coast. Models are converging on a 
seasonably strong, vertically stacked low developing across the 
western Great Lakes Friday, slowly drifting eastward through the 
Great Lakes through the weekend. Have opted for mid/high chance pops 
Friday through Saturday, tapering off to lower chance pops Saturday 
night and Sunday given subtle model differences with the evolution 
of the cutoff low. Regardless, confidence is steadily increasing on 
a period of above normal precip and near to below normal 
temperatures for next weekend. Have generally kept temps closer to 
MOS numbers vs. raw guidance, which is yielding highs Thursday and 
Friday in the low 80s, and right around 80 Saturday and Sunday.
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions in place to start the TAF cycle with a thicker cu
field located along the lake breeze and across inland NE OH/NW
PA. A few small showers are trying to develop along these 
boundaries but moisture is limited and an overall lack of 
forcing will greatly limit coverage. Only included a VCTS at CAK
later this afternoon and will continue to monitor radar trends 
for any indications the coverage will be greater. YNG could see 
a showers but other sites not expected to see precip. Otherwise 
mostly clear skies tonight may allow for some shallow MVFR 
ground fog to develop, mainly in the 10-13Z window. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms expected to fill in Monday afternoon 
into Monday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Lake 
breezes have developed at CLE/ERI with light southwest winds 
OUTLOOK...Brief non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms 
Monday afternoon and night. 
Quiet conditions expected on the lake today through Monday, with 
winds light and variable as a weak front washes out north of the 
lake. Winds will increase out of the south/southwest Monday, but 
will remain less than 10 kts, as a cold front approaches the lake. 
The front will move across the lake Monday night into Tuesday, with 
winds becoming north-northwest 10-20 kts Tuesday and Tuesday night, 
gradually weakening through midweek as high pressure builds across 
the lake. Southerly winds will increase again late in the week as 
low pressure approaches from the west.
NEAR TERM...KEC/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt