Area Forecast Discussion


616 
FXUS64 KCRP 161123
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
623 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 12Z Aviation.
&&
.AVIATION...
Patchy fog and low clouds have been developing across portions of
the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads this morning, 
resulting in visibilities fluctuating between 2-5 miles with
ceilings between 2-3 kft at times. Kept the TEMPO for MVFR
cigs/vsbys across all eastern terminals through sunrise. VFR
conditions return this morning and should prevail through the rest
of the day. Southerly winds will increase this morning as the low
level jet mixes down with gusts from 20-25 knots. Winds will 
become more southeasterly during the afternoon with gusts around 
25 knots. Gusts will drop off again during the late evening hours 
Monday. Low level clouds and patchy fog should redevelop early
Tuesday morning but overall confidence is too low to include in
the TAFs at this time. 
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/ 
SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
Hot and dry will be the theme over the next week. Drier air (PWATs
ranging from ~1.2-1.3") and divergence across the region as the
ridge builds in will negate any rain chances. Winds will pick up 
again today as a 30-35 knot low level jet mixes down this morning,
resulting in borderline SCEC conditions across the southern bays 
and nearshore waters. Patchy fog will likely redevelop across the 
Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads Tuesday morning with 
conditions improving shortly after sunrise.
High temps will range from the low 90s along the coast to near 105
across the Brush Country. Heat indices will range from 105-109
degrees across the southern Coastal Bend on Monday with SPS
conditions becoming more widespread on Tuesday. 
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Very little change from the previous forecast with ridging aloft 
keeping a tight lid on the region. Hot, humid, and dry are the 
constants for the longterm period. Onshore flow, generally weak to 
moderate, will keep the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains deep in the 
Gulf moisture making for dangerous heat index values.  We could see 
a couple of days reach Excessive Heat Advisory criteria being 
reached across the Southern Coastal Bend later this week. This is 
the main threat during the longterm, the heat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  77  95  76  95  /   0  10   0   0   0 
Victoria          95  75  96  76  97  /  10   0  10   0  10 
Laredo           103  77 105  77 105  /   0   0   0   0   0 
Alice             98  74 100  75 100  /   0   0   0   0   0 
Rockport          91  81  92  79  91  /  10  10  10   0  10 
Cotulla          102  74 103  74 104  /   0   0   0   0   0 
Kingsville        97  76  98  76  99  /   0   0   0   0   0 
Navy Corpus       92  81  93  80  92  /  10  10  10   0  10 
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TC/95...AVIATION