Area Forecast Discussion


202 
FXUS64 KCRP 212155
AFDCRP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
355 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...
Cold front continues to move southeast at 10 to 15 mph toward the
coast, along a line from Magnolia Beach to Sinton to Alice to
Hebbronville. Scattered storms are developing just behind the
boundary. Some of these storms could become strong producing hail as
latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg. 
Will continue to use a blend of NAM/ARW/SREF for the movement of
the cold front through the forecast period. The GFS model this
winter has been woeful with shallow arctic air masses. Went very
close to MET guidance for temperatures through the period. The 
front will move move into the coastal waters this evening and 
stall over the offshore waters from 40-50 nm offshore. The 
boundary is expected to be nearly stationary through the day 
Thursday and then slowly retreat back toward the coast Thursday 
night. 
Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms will be
possible along and behind the boundary this evening. Isentropic
lift will keep threat of convection going late tonight into
Thursday morning. There may be a lull in precip activity during
the afternoon Thursday as isentropic lift diminishes. But another
short wave trough will be moving northeast toward the region
Thursday night with isentropic lift strengthening especially over
the Brush Country. Will increase PoPs back to 50 percent for the
Brush Country with 40 percent chance for the coastl plains and
coastal waters.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Active weather continues through the long term period. We will start 
out with the stalled boundary offshore Thursday/Thursday night 
pushing back inland on Friday. Leaning heavily on NAM/SREF and 
against the GFS that moves the boundary back in already on Thursday. 
Should be a somewhat dry day on Friday with just a slight chance for 
a shower along the front and highs warming back into the 70s. 
Low level moisture surges back into the area though with dpts back 
into the mid 60s by late in the day. Onshore flow continues Saturday 
ahead of another cold front and with a continued southerly mid-level 
flow should get quite warm that day...into the 80s for much of the 
area. This all depends on frontal timing, with current expectations 
of frontal passage in the evening or overnight. 
The Sunday front again doesn't look like it will be a clean passage 
with upglide flow developing quickly on Sunday through the eastern 
part of the forecast area. Western areas should be drier and could 
see some sunshine on Sunday. Expect more of the same early next week 
with rain chances continuing. High temperatures drop into the 60s 
and low 70s behind the front Sunday and then gradually warm back 
into the 70s early week. Another cold is possible by the latter half 
of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    48  56  54  76  67  /  60  50  40  10  20 
Victoria          44  53  51  76  66  /  60  50  40  10  20 
Laredo            45  56  52  75  64  /  40  40  50  20  20 
Alice             46  54  52  78  66  /  50  50  40  10  20 
Rockport          49  56  55  75  66  /  60  40  40  10  20 
Cotulla           43  53  48  72  62  /  40  50  50  20  20 
Kingsville        48  55  54  79  67  /  60  50  40  10  20 
Navy Corpus       49  57  56  74  66  /  70  40  40  10  20 
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
TMT/89...SHORT TERM
PZ/83...LONG TERM