FXUS64 KCRP 212155
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
355 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...
Cold front continues to move southeast at 10 to 15 mph toward the
coast, along a line from Magnolia Beach to Sinton to Alice to
Hebbronville. Scattered storms are developing just behind the
boundary. Some of these storms could become strong producing hail as
latest SPC mesoanalysis indicated MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg.
Will continue to use a blend of NAM/ARW/SREF for the movement of
the cold front through the forecast period. The GFS model this
winter has been woeful with shallow arctic air masses. Went very
close to MET guidance for temperatures through the period. The
front will move move into the coastal waters this evening and
stall over the offshore waters from 40-50 nm offshore. The
boundary is expected to be nearly stationary through the day
Thursday and then slowly retreat back toward the coast Thursday
Scattered to numerous showers with isolated thunderstorms will be
possible along and behind the boundary this evening. Isentropic
lift will keep threat of convection going late tonight into
Thursday morning. There may be a lull in precip activity during
the afternoon Thursday as isentropic lift diminishes. But another
short wave trough will be moving northeast toward the region
Thursday night with isentropic lift strengthening especially over
the Brush Country. Will increase PoPs back to 50 percent for the
Brush Country with 40 percent chance for the coastl plains and
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Active weather continues through the long term period. We will start
out with the stalled boundary offshore Thursday/Thursday night
pushing back inland on Friday. Leaning heavily on NAM/SREF and
against the GFS that moves the boundary back in already on Thursday.
Should be a somewhat dry day on Friday with just a slight chance for
a shower along the front and highs warming back into the 70s.
Low level moisture surges back into the area though with dpts back
into the mid 60s by late in the day. Onshore flow continues Saturday
ahead of another cold front and with a continued southerly mid-level
flow should get quite warm that day...into the 80s for much of the
area. This all depends on frontal timing, with current expectations
of frontal passage in the evening or overnight.
The Sunday front again doesn't look like it will be a clean passage
with upglide flow developing quickly on Sunday through the eastern
part of the forecast area. Western areas should be drier and could
see some sunshine on Sunday. Expect more of the same early next week
with rain chances continuing. High temperatures drop into the 60s
and low 70s behind the front Sunday and then gradually warm back
into the 70s early week. Another cold is possible by the latter half
of the week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi 48 56 54 76 67 / 60 50 40 10 20
Victoria 44 53 51 76 66 / 60 50 40 10 20
Laredo 45 56 52 75 64 / 40 40 50 20 20
Alice 46 54 52 78 66 / 50 50 40 10 20
Rockport 49 56 55 75 66 / 60 40 40 10 20
Cotulla 43 53 48 72 62 / 40 50 50 20 20
Kingsville 48 55 54 79 67 / 60 50 40 10 20
Navy Corpus 49 57 56 74 66 / 70 40 40 10 20