Area Forecast Discussion


321 
FXUS63 KEAX 201153
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018
.Discussion...
Issued at 431 AM CST TUE FEB 20 2018
The cold front that pushed through yesterday has stalled across 
the center of MO from Joplin to Quincy. This has kept the rain and 
embedded storms going overnight as well as the freezing rain. The 
sub-freezing temperatures that ushered in behind the front have made 
it as far south and east to a line from the Olathe, KS to 
Unionville, MO. While observation sites have been reporting freezing 
rain for a few hours now, not much, if anything, has accumulated on 
the roadways due the road temperatures being about 32 degrees in the 
northwest corner of the forecast area and mid 30s in the KC Metro. 
While, road temperatures are not expected to increase, it is 
probably going to take a little more time for them to decrease below 
freezing. This is because the cold front hasn't moved much
keeping temperatures steady. Am starting to see a decreasing
trend in surface temperatures though, so would expect a similar
trend in the roadway temps soon as well. This doesn't mean we 
aren't seeing any ice accumulations on elevated surfaces 
vegetation though. We have received reports of up to 0.20 of an 
inch on elevated surface north of the KC metro and a light glazing
in the KC metro. The front is slated to start pushing east again 
this morning thanks to an upper level shortwave moving across the 
Plains. As the front moves, the sub- freezing temperatures will 
start to spread across the forecast area throughout the day. 
Precipitation chances will continue along and behind the front 
throughout the day as well. Therefore, the rain/freezing rain line
will push southeast, providing everyone with a chance for 
freezing rain. Given the convective nature of the expected 
precipitation and the amount of moisture coming in from the 
Eastern Pacific, we expected a significant amount of ice (up to 
0.30 of an inch) in the KC Metro and a few counties north of the 
KC Metro. Therefore an Ice Storm Warning is in effect now through 
6 PM tonight. Accumulations up to 0.25 of an inch are expected 
across northern MO and northwest MO/northeast KS, so the Winter 
Weather Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM tonight in those 
areas.
Atchison County, KS to Harrison County, MO will continue seeing 
on/off freezing rain this morning with up to 0.25 of an inch of 
ice expected. The precipitation should move out by early 
afternoon.
Linn County, KS to The KC Metro to Schuyler County, MO will 
continue seeing on/off freezing rain this morning as well, with 
more widespread freezing rain expected during the afternoon hours.
Up to 0.30 of an inch of ice is expected for KC Metro and
surrounding counties, with up to 0.25 expected along the MO/IA
border. The precipitation should move out near sunset.
Everyone else will see on/off showers and embedded storms this 
morning with a change over to freezing rain around late afternoon. 
Up to 0.05 of an inch of ice is possible. The precipitation should 
move out by midnight tonight.
After this system moves out we will see a brief break from the 
precipitation Wednesday, but a few more rounds of precipitation is 
forecast through the rest of the week. Temperatures during the day 
support liquid, with colder temperatures at night supporting more 
wintry precipitation. There are some model differences, so things
like timing and precipitation type will need to be fine-tuned as
we get closer. The active pattern should move out of the area
Sunday.
&&
.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 552 CST TUE FEB 20 2018
LIFR and IFR conditions are expected to continue through the
morning across the area as the cold front stays stretched across
MO. The front is also providing on and off precipitation with
freezing rain being observed west of a line from Linn County, KS
to Putnam County, MO and rain east of the line. More widespread 
freezing rain is expected later this morning into the early 
afternoon, for western MO and eastern KS. The precipitation will 
then start to move east with the front, exiting the STJ area 
around 18Z, the KC metro around 21Z, IRK around 00Z, and central 
MO closer to 03Z. As the precipitation moves east, the freezing 
rain will move east with it. Around STJ should see up to 0.25 of 
an inch, with the KC metro and surrounding areas are expected to 
see the most ice (up to 0.30 of an inch) and up to 0.02 possible 
around IRK and central MO. The lower ceilings and visibility will 
exit the area with the precipitation and front, leaving everyone 
VFR by 06Z.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-
     102.
     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for 
     MOZ001>007-011-012-015-016-020-023.
     Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ013-014-021-
     022-028>030-037-043.
&&
$$
Discussion...Grana
Aviation...Grana