Area Forecast Discussion


301 
FXUS64 KEPZ 251047
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
447 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
We will see quiet and warmer weather through the weekend, with our
high temperatures running several degrees above average. For the
first part of next week, we will have a couple of breezy to windy
afternoons with our high temperatures near seasonal averages.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
After several days of active weather, do to an upper level trough
that moved across northern Mexico, we are now in more of a quiet 
weather pattern for the next several days. A short wave ridge 
aloft will begin to warm our temperatures. Today we will be a few 
degrees above average and on Friday we will see our high 
temperatures 5 to 8 degrees above average. One potential fly in 
the ointment is that a few models have been trying to kick out a 
few rain showers across central New Mexico including the Gila 
Region, this afternoon and again on Friday, due mainly to some 
weak surface convergence. For now I have kept most the area dry, 
with just a small part of the Gila Region getting a slight chance 
for rain. 
The weekend is looking nice as a zonal flow allows westerly
surface winds to move into the area. These westerly winds will
keep us dry with our high temperatures continuing to run 5 to 8
degrees above average. Most lowland locations will be flirting
with the 90 degree mark both Saturday and Sunday. On Monday our
next upper level storm system approaches the area. Right now there
continues to be a difference in timing between the GFS and ECMWF
models. The GFS continues to be about 12 hours faster with the
system. The GFS brings the trough across late Monday night into
Tuesday morning which gives us breezy to windy conditions on
Monday and Tuesday, but not too strong either day. The EC model 
is slower and brings the system across the area on Tuesday, which 
would give us a potential for stronger winds on Tuesday. For now 
I'll keep things breezy to windy both Monday and Tuesday. Behind 
the upper trough for the middle part of next week, we will see a 
slight cool down, but temperatures will still be a few degrees 
above average.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 25/00Z-26/00Z... 
VFR through out whole period. P6SM SKC with winds northwest to 
northeast AOB 10KTS. Calm and mostly variable winds after 00Z, until 
6Z when relatively faster winds 10KTS-15KTS enter in from the 
east and fill in starting at 130 and eventually turning to 180 
after 12Z. 
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper ridge will build over the Rockies through the weekend which 
will bring above average highs with many lowland locations into the 
upper 80s to lower 90s Friday through Sunday. Minimum relative 
humidity values will be falling back into the single digits to mid 
teens for much of the next week, but winds will not be a big concern 
until early next week when critical or near critical conditions are 
possible Monday through Wednesday. Vent rates today mainly good to 
very good, but improving to excellent into the weekend and early 
next week as high mixing heights are expected. 
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 87  60  90  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Sierra Blanca           81  53  84  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Las Cruces              87  55  88  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Alamogordo              83  54  86  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloudcroft              66  43  63  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Truth or Consequences   85  57  86  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Silver City             78  51  79  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Deming                  86  52  88  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Lordsburg               86  53  88  55 /   0   0   0   0 
West El Paso Metro      85  60  88  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Dell City               84  54  87  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Hancock            86  58  89  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Loma Linda              82  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Fabens                  85  59  89  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Teresa            85  57  89  61 /   0   0   0   0 
White Sands HQ          84  60  87  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Jornada Range           85  53  87  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Hatch                   86  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus                87  54  89  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Orogrande               82  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Mayhill                 71  46  74  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Mescalero               72  46  72  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Timberon                68  45  71  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Winston                 78  41  78  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Hillsboro               83  53  83  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Spaceport               85  53  86  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Lake Roberts            81  40  78  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Hurley                  81  50  82  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Cliff                   85  47  84  48 /   0   0   0   0 
Mule Creek              82  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Faywood                 81  52  82  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Animas                  87  54  89  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Hachita                 86  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Antelope Wells          85  54  88  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloverdale              83  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0 
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Brice/Dhuyvetter