Area Forecast Discussion


886 
FXUS64 KEPZ 161015
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
415 AM MDT Mon Jul 16 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
We should see one more day of a moist environment with scattered
thunderstorms and a threat of flooding. Then as our upper flow
becomes northeast, Tuesday will start a drying, warming trend that
should last into the weekend. There will still be isolated
thunderstorms Tuesday across the mountains and near the Arizona
border. Otherwise mostly clear skies will rule the rest of the
week, with high temperatures warming to well above normal. By
Wednesday into the weekend, the desert areas will be flirting with
triple digits again.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Looks like one more day of our monsoon before we take a break and
experience more June-like weather. Ridge of high pressure persists
from southern California across southern Colorado and over to the
southern Piedmont area. To the south of this ridge an inverted
trough (best found at the higher upper levels) exists just east of
the Big Bend will continue drifting west across northern Mexico
and southern New Mexico, reaching Arizona by early Tuesday
morning. No significant changes to our airmass for today, so
expect scattered thunderstorms again. Inverted trough will have to
be watched. Though most/all jet dynamics should remain over
northern Mexico, NAM12 (and GFS somewhat) is showing nice 
synoptic lift in omega fields sweeping from east to west across 
the CWA this afternoon and evening. HRRR rain and convection 
fields also showing this pattern of thunderstorms beginning in the
east this afternoon and spreading west tonight, with the activity
east of the Rio Grande Valley ending by early evening. PWs still
in the 1.2 to 1.4 inch this afternoon/evening so still expecting 
some more heavy rain and flood potential. 
Still looks like rather nicely defined drying, warming trend
starting Tuesday. Upper ridge re-orients itself as split high
centers further split due to upper trough sweeping across the
northeast U.S. Western high center reforms over the eastern Great
Basin by Wednesday and Thursday as the eastern high center
retreats back out to the more typical Bermuda high position. Upper
flow turns to the northeast and begins entraining drier air into
the region. PWs down mostly below one inch by Wednesday, and
dewpoints should fall back into the 40s. Upper high center
gradually drops down to New Mexico by Friday/Saturday. All this
means a nice warmup back above normal after Tuesday. Desert highs
should reach triple digits Wednesday through the weekend. Models
still showing strong subsidence and warm advection aloft (though
not seeing -2C 500mb temps on the latest models. Still 500mb temps
quite warm and throughout the last half of the week and not very
conducive to convection. Bottom line...after Tuesday low POPs
limited to the mountains and near the Arizona border.
Both GFS/ECMWF continue to show upper high retreating back toward
Arizona at the beginning of next week, allowing recycled moisture
back down over the CWA, with low POPs perhaps for all areas.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 16/12-17/12Z. 
Genly VFR conditions through the period. Convection beginning over
the mountains and east of the Rio Grande Valley after 18Z and then
spreading to west of Rio Grande Valley after 23Z. Convective
conditions will be scattered thunderstorms of BKN100CB with
isolated CIGS AOB 030 vsbys 1-3SM in +TSRA. Small hail and wind
gusts of 35-45 kts also possible with some of these storms.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture is expected to remain in place today with
good chances for wetting precipitation for all areas. A drying 
trend will begin on Tuesday as deeper moisture is pulled westward 
into Arizona and high pressure builds over the state. Circulation 
around the high will import drier air into the region and reduce 
chances for showers and thunderstorms to a more isolated and 
mainly mountain based occurrence for the remainder of the week.
High temperatures near normal today and Tuesday, will warm to well
above normal for the remainder of the week.
Minimum relative humidity values will drop to the upper teens by the 
middle of the week and continue into next weekend.  Vent rates will 
continue be in the good to very good range. Non-thunderstorm induced 
easterly winds will remain light and generally under 10 mph. Wind 
gusts from thunderstorms will have speeds of 40 to 50 mph. 
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 92  73  96  75 /  40  30   0   0 
Sierra Blanca           90  67  94  71 /  50  20   0   0 
Las Cruces              90  67  95  69 /  40  40   0   0 
Alamogordo              91  68  94  70 /  30  30   0   0 
Cloudcroft              69  51  73  53 /  60  40  10   0 
Truth or Consequences   90  69  92  71 /  30  40   0   0 
Silver City             83  64  89  65 /  50  50  30  10 
Deming                  89  65  94  67 /  30  30   0   0 
Lordsburg               88  67  94  69 /  30  50  20  10 
West El Paso Metro      90  70  94  74 /  40  30   0   0 
Dell City               95  66  97  71 /  40  20   0   0 
Fort Hancock            93  70  97  73 /  50  20   0   0 
Loma Linda              89  66  92  70 /  50  30   0   0 
Fabens                  91  66  95  72 /  40  30   0   0 
Santa Teresa            91  69  95  71 /  40  30   0   0 
White Sands HQ          90  70  94  72 /  40  30   0   0 
Jornada Range           91  66  95  69 /  40  30   0   0 
Hatch                   91  67  95  69 /  30  40   0   0 
Columbus                89  67  95  69 /  30  30   0   0 
Orogrande               92  68  95  73 /  40  30   0   0 
Mayhill                 78  56  83  58 /  50  40  10   0 
Mescalero               78  56  85  58 /  50  40  10   0 
Timberon                77  54  80  58 /  60  40  10   0 
Winston                 83  57  86  62 /  40  50  30  10 
Hillsboro               89  63  92  67 /  40  40  20   0 
Spaceport               90  64  93  68 /  30  30   0   0 
Lake Roberts            82  52  87  58 /  50  60  30  10 
Hurley                  85  61  88  65 /  40  50  20  10 
Cliff                   87  62  92  60 /  40  60  20  20 
Mule Creek              85  64  91  61 /  50  60  30  20 
Faywood                 87  62  90  66 /  40  40  20  10 
Animas                  89  65  95  67 /  30  60  20  10 
Hachita                 88  65  94  66 /  30  40  10  10 
Antelope Wells          87  64  92  65 /  40  60  10  10 
Cloverdale              84  62  91  65 /  50  60  10  10 
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
17 Hefner