Area Forecast Discussion


204 
FXUS64 KEPZ 172237
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
337 PM MST Sat Nov 17 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and seasonable weather should continue into next week
and through Thanksgiving Day, as westerly flow aloft persists. A
weak cool front moves in from the east on Sunday. Very few clouds
with this feature, but temperatures will cool around 7 to 10
degrees from today. The cool air will stay around Monday but then
temperatures will rebound to normal or slightly above normal the
remainder of the holiday week. A weak disturbance aloft will move
across the Borderland Tuesday night and Wednesday, resulting in a
slight chance of showers, mainly east of the Rio Grande Valley.
Thanksgiving Day looks to be sunny with some high clouds and high
temperatures a bit above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a nice week of weather ahead, assuming one likes dry
weather with mostly seasonable temperatures. Currently the area
sits under mostly a southern branch of the polar jet flow as flow
splits around large eastern Pacific ridge. Several weak
disturbances and considerable high level moisture reside in this
southerly branch and will intermittent patches of high clouds next
two days. To our north, a sharply positively tilted trough
extending from Hudson Bay low down across the Great Lakes to
Nebraska and out to northern Nevada. This feature has helped
induce a cold front down the Texas Panhandle and eastern New
Mexico. Front is pretty much dammed up against the Sac mtns. 
Hudson Bay trough gradually dropping south to the CWA, reaching
west Texas Monday night and dissipating over the area as next
short wave ridge moves across. Expect moderate cooling on Sunday,
perhaps 7 to 10 degrees from today. Front may develop low stratus
up against the eastern Sac mtns Sunday but don't think much of any
chance for light precip. Models just not showing much increase of
dewpoints or low level RH to justify considerable clouding in over
the eastern CWA. 
As mentioned above short wave ridge moves over the area Monday as
upper trough dissolves in place. Should see a break in the high
clouds with the strong subsidence. Sun should help warm Monday up
a bit, but still lacking the west/southwest surface winds to flush
the cool air out. Small Pacific upper low quickly cuts across the
area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Both GFS/ECMWF similar with this
feature, showing some light showers over the eastern CWA beginning
Tuesday night. Will limit showers to Rio Grande Valley east as
that is where the higher dewpoints exist. Yesterday models showed
very modest instability but today that has all but disappeared, 
so don't believe there is any potential for thunder.
Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day...another short wave ridge will
move across the area Wednesday as upper low exits. Temperatures
should warm back to normal or slightly above normal. Upper trough
quick on the heels of the ridge will cut across the central
Rockies Thursday. Will likely bring batch of higher clouds but
little else on Turkey day. Trough does induce weak lee side
troughing over eastern Colorado so afternoon breezes likely;
otherwise a very nice Thanksgiving Day.
Friday and weekend...big difference between GFS/ECMWF as GFS 
shows strong zonal flow and warm temperatures. Euro drops
northwest Pacific low down to Colorado Saturday night, giving the
area a chance of showers Saturday night and Sunday. For now will
stick with GFS solution.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z... 
VFR conditions continue thru the period. Upper level high pressure 
continues over the region. However, a back door cold front will be 
moving in after 03Z over the eastern zones. Therefore, expect 
winds around 5 kts early on shifting to the east and southeast 
between 5 to 10 kts after 03Z over KELP and areas east of the Rio
Grande. Stronger gusts will be possible in the western slopes of 
area mountains. Winds west of the Rio Grande remain generally from
the west around 5 kts.
$$
.FIRE WEATHER... 
An upper ridge over the West Coast remains in place which was 
favoring a northwest flow over the region. An upper level 
disturbance to our north will shift the winds aloft and make them 
more to the west allowing the inclusion of more dry air. Any chances 
of precipitation with this system stay well north of the Borderland. 
Tonight, a weak backdoor cold front will make its way through the 
region. The eastern zones will observe the greatest difference in 
temperature tomorrow with up to 10 degrees below of what was 
observed today. However, the western zones will see a difference of 
up to 5 degrees. The front is shallow, so temperatures should jump 
back to near normal for the season by Monday. There is some moisture 
behind the front increasing the values from the teens and low 20s of 
today into the 20s and 30s by tomorrow and the rest of the week. The 
upper ridge starts moving east on Monday favoring warmer 
temperatures the first half of the week. By Wednesday we would have 
a chance for precipitation as an upper trough slides in. For the 
rest of the period we will be dry. Ventilation categories will be 
generally poor with some areas seeing fair conditions, except on 
Tuesday when higher mixing levels improve the rates to the good 
category. 
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 38  60  36  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Sierra Blanca           32  55  32  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Las Cruces              32  58  32  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Alamogordo              33  56  32  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloudcroft              26  45  24  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Truth or Consequences   32  59  33  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Silver City             30  60  30  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Deming                  28  61  30  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Lordsburg               30  62  33  65 /   0   0   0   0 
West El Paso Metro      38  60  35  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Dell City               31  55  31  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Hancock            36  61  35  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Loma Linda              34  55  33  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Fabens                  36  62  33  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Teresa            34  59  33  63 /   0   0   0   0 
White Sands HQ          37  57  34  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Jornada Range           27  57  28  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Hatch                   27  60  28  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus                33  62  33  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Orogrande               33  56  33  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Mayhill                 26  50  26  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Mescalero               29  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Timberon                26  50  26  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Winston                 24  59  26  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Hillsboro               28  61  31  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Spaceport               26  58  28  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Lake Roberts            20  61  25  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Hurley                  29  61  28  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Cliff                   17  63  19  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Mule Creek              17  63  19  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Faywood                 29  61  30  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Animas                  28  64  33  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Hachita                 26  62  29  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Antelope Wells          31  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloverdale              31  66  35  66 /   0   0   0   0 
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
Hefner/Crespo