Area Forecast Discussion


707 
FXUS64 KEPZ 212145
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
245 PM MST Wed Feb 21 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will be warming up over the next couple of days with
highs mainly in the 60s by Friday. The main impact across the
region during this entire period will be gusty winds with the
strongest ones occurring on Friday into Saturday morning. A cold
front will accompany these winds and drop temperatures about 10
degrees for the weekend before warming back up early next week.
Generally dry conditions are expected for the next week besides a
few isolated mountain showers. 
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A fairly active weather pattern will continue through the forecast
period with a series of disturbances moving out of the Pacific
northwest keeping a mean trough over the western CONUS. Each of
these disturbances that cross the Borderland will bring a cool
front and breezy to windy conditions. Temperatures will look to
mainly fluctuate by about 8-12 degrees over the next week with
highs near normal to about 10 degrees below normal. 
Southwest flow will increase over the region through Friday before
the next cold front moves through. Expect to see high temperatures
warm each of the next couple of days with highs Friday reaching
the 60s across the lowlands. Winds will start to increase Thursday
as lee trough develops across far eastern NM and remains in place
for Friday but with tightening gradient. Friday could experience
some near advisory level winds, especially west of Rio Grande with
patchy blowing dust. Upper trough and cold front cross region
Friday night and Saturday morning. Peak winds aloft move across
during this time with H70 speeds of over 50 knots. These winds
aloft will combine with tight surface gradient to keep good low
level mixing going and breezy conditions through the night. May
even get advisory level winds to develop in favored east slope
locations. 
Temperatures Saturday behind the system will cool down about 10
degrees with most locations in the 50s. Winds will start out
windy across region but should fall into the breezy category
during the afternoon. A period of more zonal flow will be over the
region Sunday which will keep breezy conditions going but with
temperatures starting to warm up a few degrees. Deeper storm
system will be digging into southern CA early next week with
southwest flow once again increasing and temperatures warming 
back into the 60s by Tuesday. Once again breezy to windy 
conditions will return Tuesday and Wednesday with a few snow 
showers possible Wednesday over the mountains with trough passage.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z... 
P6SM FEW-SCT040-050 SCT-BKN060-080 early this evening...then 
clearing before midnight. FEW-SCT250 moving in from the west 
towards early Thu morning. Winds 090-140/05-15kts mainly east of 
Rio Grande through 12Z...becoming light and variable through 
17Z...then 220-250/15-25G30kts through period. Winds elsewhere 
210-230 AOB 5kts through 17Z...then 220-250/15-25G30kts elsewhere.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
East to southeast winds will continue tonight mainly east of the 
Rio Grande, as remnants of a recent back door cold front linger in
this area. Winds shift southwest and become gusty Thursday and 
Friday, with slight rain chances in the mountains Fri night. 
Critical fire conditions will be possible for up to a few hours 
southern zones Friday. Larger upper level trough moves through 
Friday night and will carry a Pacific front through at that time. 
Winds will be gusty from the northwest Saturday, with speeds 
tapering off during the afternoon. Lowland highs will fall to the
50s this weekend as a consequence. Min RH Thursday will range 
from the low 40s mountains, to high teens far west TX. Values fall
10-15 percent Saturday and continuing to fall into the low teens 
lowlands through at least early next week. 
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 36  61  37  68 /   0   0   0   0 
Sierra Blanca           31  64  35  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Las Cruces              33  58  30  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Alamogordo              33  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloudcroft              23  39  23  45 /   0   0   0   0 
Truth or Consequences   32  56  29  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Silver City             26  48  24  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Deming                  30  57  27  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Lordsburg               29  56  26  61 /   0   0   0   0 
West El Paso Metro      36  60  37  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Dell City               29  63  32  70 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Hancock            32  66  36  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Loma Linda              30  58  34  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Fabens                  33  63  34  71 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Teresa            33  60  33  66 /   0   0   0   0 
White Sands HQ          33  59  33  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Jornada Range           25  58  26  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Hatch                   31  59  28  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus                31  60  29  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Orogrande               34  59  34  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Mayhill                 24  48  26  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Mescalero               28  45  26  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Timberon                24  44  26  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Winston                 22  50  19  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Hillsboro               27  52  25  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Spaceport               29  57  27  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Lake Roberts            23  46  18  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Hurley                  25  49  22  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Cliff                   22  52  20  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Mule Creek              20  50  25  53 /   0   0   0   0 
Faywood                 28  52  25  57 /   0   0   0   0 
Animas                  28  57  26  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Hachita                 29  57  26  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Antelope Wells          28  58  27  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Cloverdale              28  53  28  59 /   0   0   0   0 
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
26/22