Supression Forecast


090 
FNUS74 KEPZ 251405
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for ANTELOPE WELL RX...BIA-MESCALERO
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
805 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2019
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on April 25. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.
.DISCUSSION...
Warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions expected for 
quite awhile as an upper ridge builds over the region. Minimum
relative humidities will be falling into the teens by Friday
and continuing through the weekend. Winds will be light today
but on the increase a little for Friday. Looking ahead
to next week, possible critical conditions for Monday and/or
Tuesday. 
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Max temperature.....Around 71. 
Min humidity........22 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 3 to 8 mph shifting to the 
                    southeast 5 to 10 mph late in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL increasing to 10500-12100 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 7 mph shifting to the east 
                    around 5 mph late in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (24200 knot-ft) increasing to very good 
                    (107600 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
TIME (MDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
Sky (%).........4      23     23     33     
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0     
LAL.............1      1      1      1      
Temp............62     69     71     70     
RH..............35     28     22     23     
20 ft wind......N 7    N 7    E 9    SE 8   
20 ft wind gust.8      12     15     14       
Mix hgt (ft)....7800   11200  12100  10500  
Transport wind..N 10   N 12   N 6    NE 5   
Haines index....3      3      3      3      
Vrate kt-ft/1K..78     106    68     43     
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   VYGD   GOOD   FAIR   
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (25-35 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......0 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Min temperature.....Around 45. 
Max humidity........73 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph. 
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
Sky (%).........40     40     40     19     19     19     
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0      
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1      
Temp............72     62     57     54     51     49     
RH..............29     43     53     59     65     70     
20 ft wind......S 8    SE 8   SE 7   SE 5   SE 3   SE 5    
20 ft wind gust.10                   6      4             
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3      
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent). 
Chance of pcpn......10 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Max temperature.....Around 73. 
Min humidity........18 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph becoming 
                    south-southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. 
Mixing height.......200-700 ft AGL increasing to 13200-13800 ft 
                    AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 16 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (42200 knot-ft) increasing to excellent 
                    (187200 knot-ft). 
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential 
                    for large plume dominated fire growth. 
TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM      
Sky (%).........16        16        27        27        
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE      
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE      
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE      
Chc of pcpn (%).10        10        10        10        
LAL.............1         1         1         1         
Temp............47        59        70        73        
RH..............79        44        31        19        
20 FT wind......SE 7      SE 8      S 10G15   SW 13G20     
Mix hgt (ft)....200       700       10200     13200     
Transport wind..SE 8      S 12      SW 15     SW 15     
Haines index....3         3         3         4         
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2         11        119       177       
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      VYGD      EXNT      
$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...DANIEL DYER
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1907015.1/EPZ
.DELDT 04/25/19
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV