Area Forecast Discussion


289 
FXUS64 KEWX 242346
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.AVIATION...
Thunderstorm activity has since cleared all sites. Winds have been
variable at AUS this afternoon but put in a SW wind with the
anticipation that it will only last an hour, may have to amend soon.
With the given rainfall today and overnight cooling, there is a 
suspicion of fog forming tuesday morning for I-35 sites. Went ahead 
and bet on brief fog forming for both AUS and SAT tuesday morning 
with bordering IFR and MVFR ceilings. DRT has VCSH for this evening 
given the currently convection over San Angelo's area making it to 
Val Verde county but stay VFR for the period. 
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ 
SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Ongoing area of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Hill
Country into the I-35 corridor continues early this afternoon. Hi-res
guidance had a tough time capturing this activity, so we have gone
mainly with radar trends and existing outflow boundaries interacting
with daytime heating. We are noticing a decreasing trend in radar
activity along the I-35 corridor near Austin, while activity farther
south near San Antonio continues to develop. Overall, this area of
showers and storms is expected to maintain for the next 2-3 hours.
The main concern with this activity will be locally heavy rainfall
and marginally severe wind gusts. 
Elsewhere, convective trends are increasing across west central Texas
and this area should be the focus for the most active weather for the
evening hours. Some of this convection may eventually move southward
and impact portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, including
northern Edwards and Val Verde counties. The main concern with these
storms will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. 
On Tuesday, the flow aloft will change little and with plenty of
moisture, residual outflow boundaries and daytime heating, we should
see some scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the
afternoon and evening hours. While overall severe weather chances
appear low, we can't rule out a strong to possibly severe storm or
two for areas generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. In
addition, slow storm movement will likely yield pockets of heavy
rainfall. 
LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
The forecast for the middle and late portion of this week should
largely be dominated by a slowly strengthening subtropical ridge
axis. As this occurs, the atmosphere should begin to stabilize
resulting in a drying and warming trend. Temperatures should remain
close to seasonal averages with highs generally in the upper 80s to
mid 90s, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. 
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  91  75  93  73 /  20  50  30  10   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  90  74  92  72 /  20  50  30  10   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  90  73  92  72 /  30  50  30  10   0 
Burnet Muni Airport            73  89  71  90  71 /  20  40  30  -   -  
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  92  73  93  74 /  30  30  20  10  -  
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  90  73  91  72 /  20  50  30  10  -  
Hondo Muni Airport             75  91  72  94  72 /  30  50  30  10  -  
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  90  73  92  72 /  30  50  30  10   0 
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  91  76  93  74 /  30  50  30  10   0 
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  90  74  93  73 /  30  50  30  10  -  
Stinson Muni Airport           75  90  75  93  74 /  30  50  30  10  -  
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...EWilliams/Bermudez
Short-Term/Long-Term...05
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams