FXUS64 KEWX 191937
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
237 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Sunny skies are prevailing on this beautiful day across South-Central
Texas. Temperatures are in the lower to upper 70s with breezy
northerly winds left in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Winds
will subside around sunset as the boundary layer begins to cool. For
tonight, lighter winds and dry air will lead to low temperatures
cooler than last night. Should see lows reach the middle 40s to
middle 50s with the warmer temperatures in the southwest CWA.
Southerly flow will return to the area by late tomorrow morning as
the surface high shifts to the east. Upper level ridging slides in
from the west as well tomorrow and temperatures should moderate into
the 80s across much of the area. With the increase in southerly flow,
lows tomorrow night will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The beginning of the long-term will start off quite pleasant with
mostly clear skies and highs in the 80s on Sunday. Slightly cooler
temperatures due to an increase in cloud cover is expected Monday.
The increase in clouds is due to increased southerly flow in response
to the next approaching upper level trough axis. Could see some lift
from this system begin to arrive on Tuesday with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. The highest chances of showers and storms looks to
be Wednesday as the upper level low slowly moves into Texas. The
GFS/ECMWF match up well with timing, but the ECMWF looks to be a
little farther south and deeper. At the same time, a cold front will
slowly drop south and the GFS and ECMWF both show the highest
amounts of QPF along the front.
The ECMWF moves the front farther south and therefore has higher
rain amounts for areas south of I-10 while the GFS keeps the highest
rain amounts to the northern CWA. Think the front will move south
given the amount of convection and the placement of the trough axis
and will continue with higher PoPs than MEX guidance across the
southern CWA. In addition, the higher QPF amounts are supported by
most of the GEFS members as the operational run of the GFS is the
lowest for QPF for San Antonio of all the ensemble members. It is
too early to get into specifics of rain amounts, but 1-3 inches of
rain is likely for some portion of the area. In addition, the higher
coverage of rain should limit instability values and widespread
severe chances. The rain looks to exit the region by Thursday
afternoon as the trough axis and the forecast for Friday looks dry.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 51 81 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 80 58 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 49 81 57 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Burnet Muni Airport 50 81 58 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 54 88 61 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
Georgetown Muni Airport 49 80 58 82 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
Hondo Muni Airport 51 85 57 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Marcos Muni Airport 48 81 57 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
La Grange - Fayette Regional 47 80 57 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Antonio Intl Airport 51 82 59 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Stinson Muni Airport 52 82 58 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
Public Service/Data Collection...BMW