FXUS64 KEWX 181023
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
423 AM CST Sun Nov 18 2018
.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
The latest radar data shows some shower activity is developing generally
along and east of the Highway 281 corridor early this morning.
Elsewhere, a cold front is currently located from central Val Verde
county into the Hill Country just south of Llano.
For today, it appears the better chance for rainfall will remain to
the east of the I-35 corridor as moisture levels remain highest
across the mentioned area. Also, the warm air advection pattern looks
a little stronger here according to the 295K and 300K isentropic
surfaces. While we mainly expect showers today, we can't rule out an
isolated thunderstorm this morning across the coastal plains.
Rainfall amounts across the coastal plains should generally remain in
the 1/4" - 1/2" range, with lesser amounts heading westward into the
I-35 corridor and Hill Country. Otherwise, expect much cooler
temperatures today given cold air advection behind the front, cloudy
skies and expected rainfall. High temperatures will vary from the
upper 40s in the Hill Country to lower 60s in the coastal plains.
For tonight and Monday, the warm air advection pattern will persist,
but again will remain strongest near the coastal plains. With a lack
of significant forcing for ascent, overall precipitation amounts
should remain light on Monday, with amounts below 1/10". A weak mid-
level shortwave trough passing to our north may help the warm air
advection pattern strengthen slightly Monday night. This should help
raise precipitation amounts slightly, especially near the coastal
plains. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s in
the Hill Country to the upper 40s in the coastal plains. Most areas
can expect to see highs in the 50s on Monday.
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Temperatures should moderate slightly on Tuesday with highs nudging
upward into the 60s. Without much support for precipitation, we will
keep the forecast dry for most of Tuesday. However, an approaching
shortwave trough will once again cause the warm air advection pattern
to strengthen mid-week. Rainfall should become more widespread
across south central Texas on Wednesday. As the shortwave translates
eastward Wednesday night, the focus for additional rainfall will
shift to areas along and east of the I-35 corridor.
The forecast for Thanksgiving day currently appears to be dry and
mostly cloudy with high temperatures generally in the 60s. For late
this week, the medium range models show a fairly stout upper system
moving out of the Rockies into the southern plains states. The ECMWF
is slower and farther south with this system, while the GFS is
quicker and farther north. We may not have much time for significant
moisture return ahead of this system and for now, we will keep the
forecast dry along with a warming trend for Friday and Saturday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry 53 43 56 43 64 / 30 30 30 10 0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 53 43 56 40 63 / 40 30 30 10 0
New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 44 55 42 63 / 40 30 30 10 -
Burnet Muni Airport 51 39 56 39 61 / 10 10 10 - 0
Del Rio Intl Airport 55 47 62 48 64 / 20 10 - 10 10
Georgetown Muni Airport 52 40 56 39 62 / 20 20 20 - 0
Hondo Muni Airport 57 46 59 44 65 / 20 20 10 10 -
San Marcos Muni Airport 53 43 54 42 63 / 50 30 30 10 -
La Grange - Fayette Regional 55 45 54 42 63 / 70 40 50 20 -
San Antonio Intl Airport 55 45 57 45 64 / 40 30 30 10 -
Stinson Muni Airport 57 46 58 45 64 / 50 30 30 10 -