Area Forecast Discussion


585 
FXUS64 KEWX 181023
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
423 AM CST Sun Nov 18 2018
.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
The latest radar data shows some shower activity is developing generally
along and east of the Highway 281 corridor early this morning.
Elsewhere, a cold front is currently located from central Val Verde
county into the Hill Country just south of Llano. 
For today, it appears the better chance for rainfall will remain to
the east of the I-35 corridor as moisture levels remain highest
across the mentioned area. Also, the warm air advection pattern looks
a little stronger here according to the 295K and 300K isentropic 
surfaces. While we mainly expect showers today, we can't rule out an
isolated thunderstorm this morning across the coastal plains. 
Rainfall amounts across the coastal plains should generally remain in
the 1/4" - 1/2" range, with lesser amounts heading westward into the
I-35 corridor and Hill Country. Otherwise, expect much cooler 
temperatures today given cold air advection behind the front, cloudy 
skies and expected rainfall. High temperatures will vary from the 
upper 40s in the Hill Country to lower 60s in the coastal plains. 
For tonight and Monday, the warm air advection pattern will persist,
but again will remain strongest near the coastal plains. With a lack
of significant forcing for ascent, overall precipitation amounts 
should remain light on Monday, with amounts below 1/10". A weak mid-
level shortwave trough passing to our north may help the warm air
advection pattern strengthen slightly Monday night. This should help
raise precipitation amounts slightly, especially near the coastal
plains. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 30s in 
the Hill Country to the upper 40s in the coastal plains. Most areas 
can expect to see highs in the 50s on Monday. 
&&
.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Temperatures should moderate slightly on Tuesday with highs nudging
upward into the 60s. Without much support for precipitation, we will
keep the forecast dry for most of Tuesday. However, an approaching
shortwave trough will once again cause the warm air advection pattern
to strengthen mid-week. Rainfall should become more widespread 
across south central Texas on Wednesday. As the shortwave translates 
eastward Wednesday night, the focus for additional rainfall will 
shift to areas along and east of the I-35 corridor. 
The forecast for Thanksgiving day currently appears to be dry and
mostly cloudy with high temperatures generally in the 60s. For late 
this week, the medium range models show a fairly stout upper system 
moving out of the Rockies into the southern plains states. The ECMWF
is slower and farther south with this system, while the GFS is 
quicker and farther north. We may not have much time for significant
moisture return ahead of this system and for now, we will keep the
forecast dry along with a warming trend for Friday and Saturday. 
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              53  43  56  43  64 /  30  30  30  10   0 
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  53  43  56  40  63 /  40  30  30  10   0 
New Braunfels Muni Airport     54  44  55  42  63 /  40  30  30  10  -  
Burnet Muni Airport            51  39  56  39  61 /  10  10  10  -    0 
Del Rio Intl Airport           55  47  62  48  64 /  20  10  -   10  10 
Georgetown Muni Airport        52  40  56  39  62 /  20  20  20  -    0 
Hondo Muni Airport             57  46  59  44  65 /  20  20  10  10  -  
San Marcos Muni Airport        53  43  54  42  63 /  50  30  30  10  -  
La Grange - Fayette Regional   55  45  54  42  63 /  70  40  50  20  -  
San Antonio Intl Airport       55  45  57  45  64 /  40  30  30  10  -  
Stinson Muni Airport           57  46  58  45  64 /  50  30  30  10  -  
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Aviation...17
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt