Area Forecast Discussion


627 
FXUS62 KFFC 201123
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
623 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 300 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018/ 
SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Wedge continues it's grip on the NE portion of the forecast area 
tonight. The wedge retreated a bit east this evening...and is 
hovering just over Atlanta this morning. Do think it will creep back 
westward in the next few hours with the light easterly winds, and 
potentially begin reinforced with some patchy drizzle. 
The main forecast issue for today will center around the 
wedge...again. Do expect the wedge to retreat a bit eastward again 
today, which will certainly create a very high bust potential for 
MaxT values...again. The models have really struggled with the 
anomalously high temps this month. For both today and Wednesday, 
started with a blend...and then took into account the wedge and 
areas that could see a few breaks in the clouds today. This resulted 
in quite a gradient across the northern Metro. If the wedge doesn't 
retreat OR completely mixes out, there will be a huge bust in MaxT 
values. Models notoriously wipe it out too soon, so feel confident 
that the wedge won't completely mix out.
Otherwise, models are producing some scattered light showers today. 
Think any precip will be isolated/scattered in nature with very 
little, if any, qpf measured.
NListemaa
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Really hate to sound like a broken record, but there is basically 
little to no change in the general trends through the majority of the
extended forecast period. Region still progged to remain under a 
general southwesterly upper-level flow pattern through the weekend. 
Wednesday night/Thursday not looking as promising for precipitation 
coverage or thunder chances, but still merits high chance POPs and at
least a slight chance for thunder across the north. Still plenty of 
difference amongst the medium range models concerning the speed/ 
strength of the weekend system as well, but we are still likely to 
see increasing shower chances across the area with a good northwest 
to southeast gradient in POPs and a chance for some isolated to 
scattered thunder Saturday/Sunday. Pattern is showing an overall 
shift as we move through the end of the period during the first half 
of next week, allowing for a return to temperatures at least a bit 
closer to seasonal normals. Until then we will continue to see 
temperatures well above normal. 
20
CLIMATE...
Records for 02-20
               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1986     37 2015     57 1991     14 2015    
   KATL      78 1986     32 1901     57 2014     16 2015    
                                        1994        1934    
   KCSG      80 1986     36 2015     63 1991     21 2015    
                                        1917                
   KMCN      80 1991     37 2015     61 1961     18 2015    
                1986                                        
Records for 02-21
               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      76 1981     34 1928     59 1997     13 1885    
                1925                                        
   KATL      75 1976     32 1898     62 1997     10 1896    
   KCSG      81 1922     40 1901     62 1997     18 1958    
                                        1971                
   KMCN      81 1976     40 1904     60 1997     23 1958    
Records for 02-22
               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      78 1922     38 1978     56 2016     11 1963    
                            1963                            
   KATL      74 2003     34 1939     61 1897      8 1963    
                1949                                        
                1917                                        
   KCSG      80 1917     43 1963     64 1962     15 1963    
   KMCN      83 1962     40 1939     61 1980     17 1963    
Records for 02-23
               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      79 2012     34 1989     57 1922     18 1939    
                1980                                        
   KATL      79 1980     32 1901     62 1909     19 1939    
   KCSG      83 1996     37 1989     67 1962     18 1963    
   KMCN      81 1980     37 1901     66 1909     22 1963    
                1909                                        
Records for 02-24
               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1930     37 1947     58 1944     19 1989    
                                                    1967    
                                                    1947    
   KATL      77 1982     35 1907     64 1890     17 1989    
                                                    1947    
   KCSG      81 1930     38 1901     61 1979     21 1989    
   KMCN      79 1985     36 1901     62 1961     18 1901    
                1930                                        
Records for 02-25
               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967    
                            1967                            
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967    
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967    
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967    
Records for 02-26
               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      81 1996     37 1979     58 1944     10 1967    
   KATL      80 1996     36 1920     63 1944     14 1967    
   KCSG      84 1944     31 1914     66 1944     18 1967    
                1930                                        
   KMCN      81 1981     39 2004     66 1944     15 1967    
                1951                                        
                1944                                        
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Wedge has finally pushed SW of ATL this morning. Reduced 
cigs/vsbys will linger through at least late morning/early 
afternoon. Do think that a break in the MVFR cigs is possible this
afternoon, but skies skies will not completely sct out due to 
some higher clouds around 030-050. High potential for the wedge to
build back in tonight...but ATL might teeter on the edge.  
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence cigs. High confidence remaining elements. 
NListemaa
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          65  61  75  61 /  20  30  30  30 
Atlanta         77  64  76  62 /  20  30  30  30 
Blairsville     58  57  66  59 /  20  40  50  40 
Cartersville    73  63  75  62 /  20  30  30  40 
Columbus        79  65  79  63 /  30  30  20  10 
Gainesville     61  59  69  61 /  20  40  40  30 
Macon           81  65  79  61 /  20  20  20  10 
Rome            71  64  75  61 /  20  30  30  40 
Peachtree City  77  63  77  60 /  20  30  30  20 
Vidalia         82  65  82  63 /  10  10  10  10 
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...NListemaa