Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KFGF 222035
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
335 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Stratocu breaking up over NW MN and parts of E ND this aftn and
trend should be some clearing thru the evening, esp east of the
Red River. West of the Red River the peristant low level moisture
should allow low clouds and some fog to reform. In clearer areas
east of the Red River, patchy fog is also possible.  
Focus is then on Friday system and arrival timing. Short range
models in good agreement on timing of snow eastward and used them
to time snow arrival in hourly pop/wx grids into Friday night. The
HRRR and RAP are a bit slower than the blended conshort and ECAM
guidance used for pops however. Idea is for snow to move into the
western fcst area mid morning....reach parts of the Red River
valley in the mid to late afternoon. The band of snow will be
orientated northwest to southeast. Temps ahead of the snow will be
above freezing but will fall to or just below freezing as the snow
moves in. Thus anticipating little liquid precipitation. Snow
rates should be quite high for several hours, esp in central ND
Minot-Devils Lake-Jamestown-Valley city region Friday aftn due to
good overlay of low/mid level frontogenesis and upper level
lift. Snow rates of 1-2 inch per hour psbl in this area where snow
totals of 8 or more has the highest chance of occurring.
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
How far east will the heavier snow get before the
lift/frontogenesis transitions a bit more into southern Minnesota
Friday night. Northern Red River valley should see several inches
but could possibly get more if the lift remains strong. For now
went advisory mid/nrn valley. Snow will taper off western fcst
area after midnight Friday night and could be replaced by some
freezing drizzle as low level moisture remains but main seeding
clouds move out. Warnings/advisories and snow amounts coordinated
well among the neighbors for this event. 
Lingering snow and rain will be possible across far southeastern ND 
and west central MN early Saturday morning. As the bulk of the 
precipitation exits the region to the south and east through mid day 
Saturday, dry air aloft could cause the loss of ice nuclei over 
eastern ND. As this occurs areas of freezing drizzle will be 
possible. However, 10-15 mph southeast winds at the surface may mix 
and dry out the near surface layer, so impacts from freezing drizzle 
will likely be minimal. 
A second shortwave embedded in southwesterly flow aloft is expected 
to move into southern Canada on Sunday. This shortwave will bring a 
second round of snow to eastern North Dakota and much of 
northwestern  and north central Minnesota. Snow is expected along 
and north of the Highway 2 corridor Sunday afternoon and evening. 
Further south, warm afternoon temperatures near and just above the 
surface will support a mixed precipitation type of rain and snow. 
The active pattern continues for Monday as a central Plains low 
moves eastward to our south. A daytime rain/snow mix and overnight 
snow will be possible across the eastern ND and northwest MN region 
Monday through late Monday night with the best chance for precip 
south of Highway 2 and across far southeast ND and western MN. 
Although there is low confidence in exact amounts, snowfall 
accumulation Sunday through Monday night will not be as high as the 
Friday storm system. However, as snowfall melts during the day and 
refreezes at night, along with light snowfall accumulation, roadways 
may be slick and hazardous during the morning and late evening hours 
during this period. 
Quiet weather will return mid week as a surface high builds over the 
northern Plains. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s 
will help begin to melt weekend snowfall.  
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
A variety of ceilings expected thru the aftn and into tonight with
a mix of some MVFR stratocu and VFR clouds in the RRV into NW/WC
MN thru Friday 18z. Local vsbys 2-4SM in fog overnight. In the
Devils Lake basin some lower clouds clearing out leaving MVFR or
briefly VFR but do expect lower cigs and areas of fog and IFR
vsbys overnight once again.  
ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday 
     for NDZ007-008-016-027-030-054.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for 
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for 
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday 
     for MNZ001-002-027-031.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for