Area Forecast Discussion


888 
FXUS63 KFGF 150450
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
No changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Afternoon water vapor imagery shows an upper level shortwave
trough slowly propagating eastward through central Canada. This
wave is accompanied by a surface low with a trailing cold front 
draped across central MN to the ND/SD border. Showers and weak 
thunderstorms ongoing along the frontal boundary in the tri-state 
region are slowly drifting eastward and out of the area. Behind 
this front northerly winds and cold air advection is evident in 
surface observations. Additionally, visible satellite shows a low 
to mid level cloud bank resulting from the low/mid level cold 
advection across northwestern MN. Just to the west across 
central/western ND a surface high was observed that will be 
gradually building eastward into the Red River Valley region 
through tonight and tomorrow. 
Although partly to mostly cloudy skies will likely prevail through
the remainder of the afternoon, clearing conditions are expected 
for tonight with winds gradually diminishing after sunset. Some 
lower-lying/local cold spots, especially across northwest MN, may 
develop shallow and patchy radiation fog during the early morning 
hours Wednesday. Any fog that does develop will likely mix out 
after sunrise. 
Clear and calm conditions are expected for tomorrow as the surface
high builds over the region. Afternoon high temperatures will be
warmer than today with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s across 
the region.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
Wednesday night-Saturday: We are still expecting shortwave ridging 
to bring warmer temperatures and generally quiet/dry conditions 
during these periods. By Friday night and Saturday some guidance 
shows weak energy aloft splitting around our CWA, but precip signal 
over our area is weak/splotchy and dry conditions were favored. 
Temperatures may be cooler Wed night than most guidance indicates, 
due to good radiational conditions and surface high pressure sliding 
east (possibly upper 40s for some locations). Patchy fog may also be 
possible early Wed morning, but guidance shows better fog 
chances/coverage further east and I opted to keep mention out for 
now. Highs should be above normal during these periods around 90F, 
and southwest flow could result in highs in the lower 90s Fri 
afternoon. 
Sunday-Tuesday: Progressive pattern shifts to a more amplified flow 
as troughing deepens from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes placing 
north-northwest flow over our CWA. This trend towards falling 
heights and fast moving shortwaves moving within the mean flow 
either over our around our CWA should support occasional precip 
chances and decreasing temperatures through early next week. 
Confidence is low on precip details as there continue to be 
variations in track/timing between guidance and there is increasing 
spread in ensembles.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
All sites are VFR with only a bit of cirrus affecting the TAF
sites. Some shallow ground fog is still not out of the question,
but will be very localized and unknown if it will impact the
airports. Will amend as needed. Otherwise light and variable
winds. 
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...JR