Area Forecast Discussion


805 
FXUS65 KFGZ 201041
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry and cold conditions are expected today, with 
any lingering snow showers near the White Mountains ending after 
sunrise. Dry and cool weather persist Wednesday, before another 
storm bring increasing southwest winds and a chance for rain and 
snow late Thursday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Mid-level moisture has been slow to move east this 
morning, with snow showers continuing along a trough axis that is 
extended into southern and central Apache county. Lower levels have 
been showing a drying trend as winds shift westerly behind the cold 
front from earlier. This will eventually shut down the shower 
activity, most likely before Noon MST. We will allow current 
headlines to expire at 5 AM MST.
Very cold and dry air over the region will make for a cold start 
today, with much of the high country barely reaching the freezing 
mark. Expect clear and cold conditions tonight, with another dry and 
cold day on Wednesday.
All eyes then turn to the next storm, due late Thursday through 
Friday. This system has been trending wetter and also has very cold 
temperatures. Southwest winds will become gusty once again Thursday 
and Friday, with rain and snow showers spreading from west to east. 
Snow levels will be quite low once again with this storm, especially 
toward the end of the event. We will wait for some better model 
agreement, but we have trended upward with POPs and QPF for now.
Dry conditions and moderating temperatures are anticipated over the 
weekend, with yet another storm possible by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12z package...Snow showers will persist in the 
White Mountains with local MVFR/IFR conditions generally from KSOW 
east through about 15Z, before dissipating. Otherwise, expect VFR 
conditions today with westerly winds around 10 kts. Aviation 
discussion not updated for amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Snow showers will diminish in the White Mountains 
this morning with otherwise dry and cold weather expected through 
Wednesday. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal. 
Westerly winds today will become southerly Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday through Saturday...Another cold weather system is forecast 
to move into Arizona late this week. Expect increased southwesterly 
winds Thursday and Friday, with chances for additional snow Thursday 
night through Friday. Saturday will see drier weather, with slightly 
warmer temperatures.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

805 
FXUS65 KFGZ 201041
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
340 AM MST Tue Feb 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry and cold conditions are expected today, with 
any lingering snow showers near the White Mountains ending after 
sunrise. Dry and cool weather persist Wednesday, before another 
storm bring increasing southwest winds and a chance for rain and 
snow late Thursday through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Mid-level moisture has been slow to move east this 
morning, with snow showers continuing along a trough axis that is 
extended into southern and central Apache county. Lower levels have 
been showing a drying trend as winds shift westerly behind the cold 
front from earlier. This will eventually shut down the shower 
activity, most likely before Noon MST. We will allow current 
headlines to expire at 5 AM MST.
Very cold and dry air over the region will make for a cold start 
today, with much of the high country barely reaching the freezing 
mark. Expect clear and cold conditions tonight, with another dry and 
cold day on Wednesday.
All eyes then turn to the next storm, due late Thursday through 
Friday. This system has been trending wetter and also has very cold 
temperatures. Southwest winds will become gusty once again Thursday 
and Friday, with rain and snow showers spreading from west to east. 
Snow levels will be quite low once again with this storm, especially 
toward the end of the event. We will wait for some better model 
agreement, but we have trended upward with POPs and QPF for now.
Dry conditions and moderating temperatures are anticipated over the 
weekend, with yet another storm possible by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For the 12z package...Snow showers will persist in the 
White Mountains with local MVFR/IFR conditions generally from KSOW 
east through about 15Z, before dissipating. Otherwise, expect VFR 
conditions today with westerly winds around 10 kts. Aviation 
discussion not updated for amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Snow showers will diminish in the White Mountains 
this morning with otherwise dry and cold weather expected through 
Wednesday. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees colder than normal. 
Westerly winds today will become southerly Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday through Saturday...Another cold weather system is forecast 
to move into Arizona late this week. Expect increased southwesterly 
winds Thursday and Friday, with chances for additional snow Thursday 
night through Friday. Saturday will see drier weather, with slightly 
warmer temperatures.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff