FXUS64 KFWD 242342
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
642 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
Challenges: With the airmass over the region still recovering
from MCS-washout(stabilization) the past 24 hours and weak 925mb
flow expected, timing MVFR cigs into all airports by daybreak
Tuesday is a bit problematic. Low confidence TS chances beyond
21z Tuesday also a concern.
Right now, an expansive cirrostratus canopy remains overhead,
particularly over Waco and Central Texas. Scattered severe TS have
developed well to the west on the old MCS outflow, but are not
expected to impact terminals and should remain well west tonight.
925mb flow is expected to recover overnight from the S at 20-25
knots. RAP/NAM model guidance/soundings are struggling a bit on
timing of MVFR cigs on this modest 925mb flow, but have maintained
a time either side of 12z for arrival into airports. Waco 10z-11z,
DFW airports likely 12z-13z. There are signs on RAP soundings that
at least scattered clouds BLO FL010 or some MVFR/BR may be
possible with light ESE winds. At this time, with 925mb flow on
the weak side and uncertainty on the cirrostratus canopy, I will
only introduce scattered clouds in the IFR layer and just maintain
prevailing MVFR cigs BLO FL015.
All airports will see MVFR cigs throughout the post daybreak
hours, with low level warming allowing a slow rise into low MVFR
by 17z-18z Tuesday. TTU WRF does show some low TS potential in the
22z Tues-01z Wed period and scattering of cigs, but confidence was
too low at this time to introduce into the forecast. Otherwise,
light E/SE winds less than 10 knots, will veer southerly 10-12
knots by Tuesday afternoon.
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/
Abundant cloud cover and cool thunderstorm outflows are
keeping below normal temperatures across the region this
afternoon. The cloud cover will linger through the night and
dewpoints will remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Therefore,
overnight lows should be on the warm side with lower and middle
70s in most locations.
The only other concern tonight will be the potential for
thunderstorms. The atmosphere will remain moderately unstable
tonight and a shortwave is progged to move east out of West
Texas. Storms will likely develop west and southwest of the region
this evening and weaken as they move east into a more capped
environment across North Texas. Therefore, we will only keep
slight chance PoPs through the night.
.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/
/Tuesday through Monday/
The weather pattern will change over the next week as we shift
from upper level westerlies to easterlies in response to a
subtropical high building over northern Mexico and moving into
the Central Plains. Before this occurs we'll have one more weak
shortwave slowly trough track through the region Tuesday, which
when combined with a moist and unstable airmass, should spark off
scattered showers and storms. Most of the activity will be in the
afternoon and early evening hours and to the east of the I-35
corridor where PoPs will be near 50%. These PoPs will taper off
to 20% in the western zones. Low temperatures will be in the low
to mid 70s and highs will be held down by the increased cloud
cover ranging from mid 80s in the east to near 90 elsewhere.
On Wednesday very weak northerly upper level flow will become
established over the region and this could allow an MCS that
develops in Kansas Tuesday night to drop south into northeast
Texas during the day. Since the model guidance is split on
whether this will even survive the trip through Oklahoma will keep
PoPs at just 20-30% over the northeastern zones. Otherwise with
the increased sunshine, temperatures will warm a couple degrees,
but still near normal for late June.
By Thursday and Friday upper level ridging looks to be close
enough for subsidence to dominate and keep the region dry. High
temperatures will tick upwards into the low to possibly mid 90s.
Lows will remain near normal in the mid 70s as light winds and
clear skies will prevail at night.
By the weekend the upper level high will have moved into the
Plains and an inverted weakness aloft will develop over the
region. This combined with adequate moisture over the eastern
zones likely will lead to some generic isolated afternoon showers
and storms. High temperatures may cool a degree or two as the low
level fetch becomes southerly off of the "cooler" Gulf of Mexico.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 74 90 72 91 73 / 20 30 20 10 10
Waco 74 89 72 92 71 / 20 30 30 10 5
Paris 71 86 68 86 70 / 20 40 20 30 10
Denton 72 89 71 91 72 / 20 30 20 10 10
McKinney 73 88 71 89 72 / 20 30 20 20 10
Dallas 74 90 72 91 73 / 20 30 20 10 10
Terrell 73 88 71 89 72 / 20 40 30 10 10
Corsicana 71 87 70 88 70 / 20 40 30 10 10
Temple 74 90 72 91 71 / 20 30 30 10 5
Mineral Wells 70 89 69 90 69 / 20 20 20 10 5