Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KFWD 161125
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
625 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
No aviation weather concerns through tonight with VFR conditions
and a southerly wind at or below 12 knots.  
Some patchy stratus may once again graze Waco this morning but
ceilings are not expected.
Isolated afternoon convection will be limited to locations near 
and north of the Red River so no impacts are expected at any of 
the TAF sites today.
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 318 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/
Building high pressure and the return of Saharan dust will make
for a hot and hazy day across North and Central Texas. Afternoon 
highs will once again climb to near or just above the century 
mark. The only semi good news is that dewpoints will mix out 
through the day so heat index values should remain below 105. 
Rain/storm chances will be very low today due to increasing large
scale subsidence. The only location that may see an isolated 
shower or thunderstorm will be near the Red River where a very 
weak cold front will approach from the north. Most of this 
activity will remain in Oklahoma, but any stray outflow boundaries
could spark some brief convection during the heat of the day. If 
any storms do develop they will be capable of gusty downburst 
Tonight will be mostly clear and warm with overnight lows
ranging from the middle 70s to the lower 80s.
.LONG TERM... /Issued 318 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/
/Tuesday through Sunday/
The upper level high will be intensifying across the Four Corners
region and eventually into Texas during the week. Surprisingly the
model guidance continues to be split in just how hot it will get
this week with the GFS still the coolest of the guidance and the
NAM/ECMWF the hottest. In any case, this week will certainly be
hot with highs above 100 for most areas. Thursday and Friday are 
looking like the hottest days as low level flow becomes more
westerly and the ridge builds into the region. Forecast high 
temperatures late this week range between 105-107 for both DFW 
and Waco, and we're still keeping them a couple degrees below the
ECMWF MOS. Record values at DFW are 107 and 105 on Thursday and 
Friday with Waco's records 106 and 104. Fortunately the drier 
airmass will allow dewpoints to mix out into the upper 40s and 50s
during the afternoon for all but the far eastern zones. This 
means heat indices will be near or below actual air temperatures. 
Winds will be on the light side which will mitigate critical fire 
weather concerns, but will make the heat feel worse to most. Low 
temperatures will progressively warm each night as the daytime 
heat is stored up in the surface. Lows will bottom out in the 
lower 80s for the urban areas and upper 70s in rural locations by 
late week. Heat advisories will likely be issued by midweek, and 
with air temperatures forecast to rise above 105 we will have to 
contemplate excessive heat warnings for parts of the region. 
Moisture will be highest and subsidence from the ridge will be
weakest across the northeast zones on Tuesday and Wednesday, but
we believe that most of the afternoon convection will stay 
northeast of the CWA. Will show silent PoPs of 10 percent in case
something were to survive long enough to enter the CWA, but we
have kept the public facing forecast dry.
The GFS keeps the center of the high farthest to the west by this
weekend and as a result brings a cold front in from the northeast
with low chances of rain. While we can't discount this scenario, 
it's not supported by the other guidance so we will leave the 
forecast dry and show only a very slight cool down of a couple 
degrees over the weekend as southerly winds increase slightly. 
The ECMWF suggests this heat wave will continue through at least 
the middle of next week, but again the GFS with its farther 
westward high location brings a TUTT low, tropical moisture,
scattered rain, and cooler temps by early next week. We'll see...
Dallas-Ft. Worth   100  80 102  80 104 /   5   0   0   5   0 
Waco               101  76 103  77 104 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               97  75  99  75  99 /  10   5  10  10  10 
Denton             100  78 102  78 104 /   5   5   5   5   0 
McKinney            99  77 100  77 102 /   5   5   5   5   5 
Dallas             101  82 103  82 104 /   5   0   0   5   0 
Terrell             99  77 103  78 103 /   0   0   5   5   5 
Corsicana           98  76 101  77 101 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              99  74 102  75 103 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells      100  76 103  76 104 /   5   0   0   0   0