Area Forecast Discussion


573 
FXUS64 KFWD 192011
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
311 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
.SHORT TERM...
/Through Sunday Night/
Surface high pressure will slide towards the east overnight,
resulting in light winds and clear skies. This will aid in
radiational cooling, and low temperatures across the region will
range from the mid 40s to low 50s. Some guidance has hinted at the
possibility of very patchy fog given the clear skies and light 
winds, but did not include a mention in the forecast given the 
overall low probabilities.
Abundant sunshine will prevail through the holiday weekend, a 
pleasant change from several past weekends of active weather. 
High pressure will remain in place across the Southeast US, 
allowing any upper level systems to remain well north from our 
region. High temperatures will climb into the upper 70s and low 
80s on Saturday. Moisture will slowly start to increase through 
the weekend as southerly flow persists. It will be breezy and 
warm on Easter Sunday, with wind speeds about 15 to 25 mph and 
afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s across the east to upper 
80s across the west. A few clouds may blanket the sky in response 
to the increased moisture, but overall mostly sunny skies are
expected. Overnight Sunday, southerly winds will decrease to 10 to
15 mph and temperatures will drop into the low 60s, about 5-8
degrees above normal for mid to late April.
Garcia
&&
.LONG TERM...
/Next Monday Through Thursday/
The shortwave mid level ridge that gave the area it's first dry 
weekend in several weeks will shift east away from North and 
Central Texas on Monday. Increasing southwest flow aloft will 
replace the mid level ridge, as a mid level trough organizes 
across the Great Basin area of Nevada, Utah, and the Grand Canyon 
area. Though this type of flow helps increase mid-upper level 
moisture from the Eastern Pacific, it also enhances the warming 
elevated mixed layer(EML) aloft or capping across the region. 
This process occurs from increasing static stability off the 
Sierra Madre Range in Northeast Mexico and the Guadalupe Range of 
Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. 
A surface cold front will surge south across the High Plains into
Western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle late Monday, before 
stalling temporarily just northwest of our county warning 
area(CWA) later Monday night. Monday afternoon will remain dry and
windy with highs 75-85 degrees, thanks to our EML overhead. An 
initial lead mid level shortwave will lift northeast over the 
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles by Monday night, but the majority of 
showers and thunderstorms will be confined mostly northwest of 
North Texas and where the stalled surface frontal boundary and 
better lift is collocated. Some of this activity may move far 
enough southeast off the surface boundary and make it into our far
northwest counties by Tuesday morning. Confidence at this point 
is low on this occurrence and have cut convective chances back as 
I believe the EML will likely cause a rapid dissipation of this 
activity as it moves farther away from it's source of lift and 
instability. 
Our main, positive-tilted trough will begin it's trek eastward on
Tuesday across the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains. This
will provide increasing height falls and move convection on the
surface boundary that any cold pooling should allow to push this
boundary somewhere into areas west of I-35. I will carry likely
thunderstorm chances across these areas moving into Tuesday night,
as isentropic ascent and modest large-scale ascent combine with 
increasing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico for more widespread 
rain chances across the northern and western CWA. Any severe 
weather threat remains "iffy", as pre-existing cloud cover and 
increasing widespread rainfall likely will have an impact on our 
environment. Models really vary on surface-based instability, but 
mostly keep stronger values off to the north and west of our CWA, 
as well as the steeper mid level lapses rates aloft. That said, 
30-40 knot deep layer shear could lead to a few multi-cellular, 
organized strong storm clusters in the West through Tuesday with 
gusty winds and small hail not out of the question. The southerly
winds and clouds will hold low temperatures Tuesday morning well 
into the 60s, while high temperatures warm into the 70s. 
Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will overspread
much of the area on Wednesday, as our slow-moving system begins to
move east with more forward momentum. The reason for the eventual
more progressive east movement will be from a 100-120 knot upper 
jet max moving through the base of the system across West Texas. 
With a surface boundary and left-exit region of this upper jet max
combining to provide good large-scale ascent, the threat for a 
few strong storms and locally heavy rainfall will increase through
Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. The threat for at 
least minor flooding will become more of a concern during this 
period, as localized amounts on the order of 2-4 inches are being 
forecast both by WPC and total model QPF on most of our medium 
range models. The threat for widespread minor flooding and 
enhanced mainstem river flooding will likely increase during this 
period. I couldn't completely rule out an isolated flash flood 
threat where recent systems have put down heavier rainfall. 
Though a localized marginal severe threat can't be ruled out, the 
environment and deep layer shear-- versus the previous 2-3 system 
appears at this time to be less impressive. So unless parameters 
change, it appears hydrological concerns may be more enhanced the 
the prospects for severe weather. Lows will continue between 55-65
degrees, while highs struggle into the 70s due to all the cloud 
cover and rainfall. 
Medium range models continue to have some disagreements on system
depth and speed beyond Thursday morning, but most are at least
showing a west-east trend for ending the rainfall across the area.
I have left low chances for showers and thunderstorms across the
far eastern counties later Thursday into Thursday night, but this
will all be predicated on wrap-around forcing and the closed
occlusion of this system over the Ozarks and Ark-La-Tex region. 
We'll continue to refine our thinking for hazards next week, as
this system becomes better sampled by the national upper-air
network and models get a better handle on features both at the
surface and aloft. 
05/
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/
/18Z TAFs/
VFR will prevail across all TAF sites through the forecast period.
Northwest winds around 18 knots with gusts between 25 to 30 knots
will continue through the early afternoon hours. Winds will begin
to decrease slowly into the evening hours. As surface pressure 
slides from west to east across the region overnight, light 
variable winds, generally under 5 knots, will prevail. Southerly 
flow near 10 knots will return late Saturday morning.
Garcia
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    50  78  59  82  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Waco                47  77  58  82  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Paris               45  72  54  78  58 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Denton              46  78  59  82  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
McKinney            45  76  58  80  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Dallas              50  78  59  82  63 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Terrell             46  76  56  81  60 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Corsicana           47  74  56  79  60 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Temple              48  77  57  82  62 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Mineral Wells       45  81  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0   0 
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
22/05