Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KGID 200058
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
758 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Issued at 758 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Updated fcst to raise nighttime lows tonight. Areas along and E of
Hwy 281 will remain in the 30s due to cloud cover. W of 281 where
clouds will begin to break-up late...upr 20s should work.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
Been a cool, dreary day across the area today, with light to at 
times moderate snow continuing to affect portions of the CWA this 
afternoon. Upper air and satellite data showing the main upper
level  low pressure system which brought the initial 
preciptiation to the area last night now set up over southern MO, 
while the ongoing north- south orientated band of mainly snow is 
being driven by an upper- level trough axis working its way 
through from west-east. The highest snowfall reports we received 
this morning of 3-6 inches were mainly concentrated in portions of
Dawson/Phelps/Gosper/Kearney counties. Through the daytime hours 
today, notable accumulation has hard to come by, as temps rose 
into the mid 30s and any snow that did manage to accumulate under 
one of the many much smaller bands that have come and gone through
the day has melted off most roadways. At the surface, the CWA 
currently sits between the main low over the MO/AR border and high
pressure building in from the northern High Plains, keeping winds
NNWrly. Speeds have been gusty at times, esp this morning, but 
even now are at times gusting to around 25 MPH. 
For the rest of this afternoon/tonight, this upper level trough
axis will continue to gradually slide east across the region, 
taking the precipitation chances along. Hi-res models really taper
things off after 06Z, and have the CWA precip-free after 12Z 
Tuesday. Significant additional snowfall accumulations are not 
expected the rest of this afternoon, and overall wind speeds have 
tapered off a bit, so will be letting the winter wx adv go with 
this forecast package. As sfc high pressure builds south into 
western NE/KS tonight, the winds will continue to taper off to 
closer to 10 MPH. Confidence in overnight lows tonight isn't high,
as they'll be dependent on how cloud cover evolves overnight. 
Current forecast lows are in the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Into Tuesday, decided to remove the small PoPs from the first part 
of the morning, with most models agreeing activity has moved east
of the CWA (though it may be close). Eastern portions of the CWA
look like they'll hang onto cloud cover longer into the day, 
currently have the west being mostly sunny by midday. Winds remain
northwesterly, topping out around 10-15 MPH. Didn't make 
significant changes to forecast highs, which are in the mid 40s to
lower 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
The forecast for the Tuesday night through Thursday evening period 
continues to be a dry one. Models are in good agreement showing 
upper level northwesterly flow building in already tonight in the 
wake of today's disturbances, remaining that way all the way into 
Thursday as the ridge axis moves through the Rockies/High Plains. 
Winds are expected to turn more SSErly through the period, with
both days having speeds around 10-15 MPH. There is some 
uncertainty with the placement of a sfc frontal boundary, mainly 
Thur, which could bring a more easterly component to the winds for
portions of the CWA. Have a warming trend in temps, with highs 
Wed in the 50s/low 60s and Thurs in the 60s/low 70s.
Models show the potential for a more unsettled weather pattern as
we head into the end of the work week and upcoming weekend, but 
overall confidence is not high. The GFS brings precipitation into 
the area quicker and affects more of the CWA compared to the ECMWF
Fri/Fri night. PoPs are mainly in the 20-40% range, and did 
expand the slight chance mention of thunder Fri evening/night. 
Have more of a RA/SN combo for late Sat night/Sun. Currently have 
the daytime hours Sat dry. Have the mild highs continuing into 
Fri/Sat, but confidence isn't high due to the model differences 
with precip. Currently have 60s/70s for Fri, 50s/60s for 
Sat...before cooling back into the lower/mid 50s for Sun.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018
MVFR to IFR ceilings look to linger into the overnight hours as a
band a precipitation slowly moves east this evening. Light rain 
with some snow mixed in will be possible this evening, but not 
expecting much in the way of accumulation. The winds will be 
northwesterly and gusty for the first few hours of the TAF period,
but are expected to taper down to around 8 to 12kts later this