Area Forecast Discussion


674 
FXUS64 KHGX 251555
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1054 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
.UPDATE...
A quiet day with drier air working its way in on northwesterly
winds. This regional dry air mass should warm up nicely under 
full sun so bumped this afternoon's temperatures up a few 
degrees...many will max out in the lower to middle 80s. Mostly to 
full clear skies through early next week will have subsequent days
warming up into the average middle 80s. Friday and Saturday 
overnight AM temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 
60s under light northerly breezes. Tomorrow's dry reinforcing 
front looks to be the last boundary to come through here for
awhile. Over the next several days, 500 mb heights will ridge 
back into the mid-580s which sounds alot like summer. Well, it is
nearly May so it is about time for us. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ 
DISCUSSION...
Showers/thunderstorms are exiting to the E/SE this morning as the
cold front moves into the coastal waters. With skies clearing and
drier air filtering down into the region, temperatures should re-
bound nicely by this afternoon. Highs to range from the lower 80s
to the upper 70s. Favorable radiational cooling conditions should
be in place tonight with lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower
60s inland...upper 60s along the coast. With the offshore flow in
place (albeit much lighter) we should see very similar conditions
for Fri. 
With the flattening upper ridge and surface high pressure sliding
off to the east, onshore winds are set to return Sat. Fairly warm
temps are progged for the weekend as low-level moisture begins to
slowly creep back up. Our next best rain chances are still on tap
starting around next Tues. Models remain in decent agreement with
the development/eastward track of the next upper trof near the CA
Baja late Mon. The deepening SW winds aloft in response will help
to drag shortwave energy across the area by Tues. Extended models
are indicating that this next system will likely lift more N than
NE with time, and this could stall the next cold front well north
of the CWA. As such the warm/humid pattern may be sticking around
in the extended. 41
MARINE... 
Weak Pacific high near San Angelo this morning will slowly drift 
east leading to more more widespread west and northwest winds across 
the coastal waters. In the short term though will have showers and 
thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front moving east out of 
the area. SCEC in effect through 8 am for the 20-60nm waters for the 
sea should be dropping off as seas diminish to closer to 4 feet from 
the 5-6 feet early this morning. Second cold front Friday morning 
brings in more northerly winds before relaxing Friday night into 
Saturday. Onshore flow resumes and will be very persistent through 
Thursday and possibly even next Saturday. Gradient does start to 
tighten up Monday night and should see steady increase in seas as a 
series of bursts of east and southeasterly winds arrive from the 
south-central Gulf. 45 
AVIATION...
Dry air intruding into the region but will have lower ceilings 
IFR/MVFR to the south where the more moist air hasn't been scoured 
out yet. Showers through 11z near GLS. Expect improving flight 
conditions at CXO/IAH/HOU/SGR/LBX/GLS in the next 2 to 3 hours as 
the weak cold front pushes out into the Gulf becoming VFR. NW winds 
relaxing tonight. 45 
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      80  59  83  60  84 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Houston (IAH)              84  62  85  62  84 /   0   0   0   0   0 
Galveston (GLS)            80  68  80  68  80 /   0   0   0   0   0 
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Discussion...31