Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KICT 180805
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
305 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018
East to southeast flow will take over the region today as a vigorous 
low pressure system moves through.  Most of the new model runs 
project the track of the system to move along the OK/KS state line 
this afternoon and evening. This set up will bring in enough 
moisture for a rather good cloud deck to form over the region which 
will limit the heating over the region today. Lowered max 
temperatures for today to compensate for the additional cloud cover. 
The lower max temperature for today will also have an affect the 
potential for severe weather over the region.  Low level lapse rates 
will be hurt significantly by this change. However, mid and upper 
level shear along with a strong low level jet will keep the chances 
for showers and thunderstorms in the region today.  As such, can't 
rule out an isolated severe thunderstorm during the evening and 
overnight hours. Wind appears to be the greatest severe weather 
threat however, the upper level lapse rates and a pronounced 500mb 
cold pool does raise the specter of some isolated severe hail with 
the strongest storms. It appears the best chance for the severe hail 
will be with the passage of this 500mb cold pool and its attendant 
vorticity max along with plenty of mid level forcing as the low 
passes.  Finally, an upper level jet core will be passing to the 
south of the region placing the bulk of the CWA in a prime location 
for strong upper level divergence support to any thunderstorms that 
are present at the time.  The timing of the upper low's passage 
looks to be late evening into the overnight hours. As such, the 
potential for isolated severe thunderstorms looks to extend into the 
overnight time frame.
By Monday, the low pressure system will have passed and the wind 
flow will turn around to the north once again.  Temps will tumble 
below normal for this time of year for a day as the skies clear. 
Tuesday will rebound a little a but temps will stay near normal with 
light northerly winds.  
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018
The extended range will be marked by a gradual warm up and will 
likely show an increase in moisture as well.  The Gulf of Mexico 
looks to finally open up for an extended period of time starting on 
Wednesday afternoon.  This return flow will be sustained through 
Friday as the next significant weather system looks to encroach on 
the region.  Long range models are mixed on the timing and track but 
nearly all agree this set up will allow for a nice warm up with 
Friday looking to be the warmest day.  This warm up will be 
accompanied by increasing winds as well as the pressure gradient 
tightens up ahead of the next system.  The big question for this 
next system will be its track as it will influence the rain 
potential for Friday evening and into Saturday.  
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1102 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018
VFR weather is expected through the mid afternoon, but conditions
will deteriorate to IFR during the evening. Scattered 
precipitation will break out late afternoon, with precipitation 
becoming increasingly likely in the evening. Precipitation and 
upslope flow will lead to decreasing ceilings and visibilities 
during the evening. -Howerton 
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018
Due to the drop in the expected max temperature for day and the 
additional cloud cover, fire danger looks to be held in check 
through the next few days.  Depending on how much rain is received 
as well, we could finally see a quick green up as many of the native 
grasses will likely take advantage of the added moisture if enough 
rain is received,  This will likely affect the curing and could 
lower the current extended range Grassland Fire Danger Indices for 
the end of the week which are currently expected to be in the very 
high category at this time.  This is likely to change depending on 
how much rain is received over the next 24-36 hours.  
Wichita-KICT    62  43  52  36 /  40  90  50  20 
Hutchinson      62  42  50  34 /  40  90  60  20 
Newton          61  42  50  34 /  40  90  60  20 
ElDorado        62  44  52  36 /  50  90  50  10 
Winfield-KWLD   62  44  55  36 /  60  80  30  10 
Russell         65  40  47  30 /  20  90  80  20 
Great Bend      64  41  47  30 /  20  90  70  20 
Salina          64  42  51  34 /  20  90  60  20 
McPherson       62  41  49  33 /  30  90  70  20 
Coffeyville     63  46  58  38 /  80  80  40  10 
Chanute         62  45  55  36 /  50  90  60  10 
Iola            61  44  54  35 /  40  90  70  10 
Parsons-KPPF    62  46  57  37 /  70  90  50  10