FXUS61 KILN 200256
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1056 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018
An area of low pressure will bring precipitation to the area
tonight. On the northern edge of the precipitation a wintry mix
is possible. As the low moves into the Appalachians, the
precipitation will pull in colder area bringing accumulating
snow to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Band of rain has pivoted into the southern part of the forecast
area. So far this has been mainly moistening the very dry low
levels, although there has been some very light accumulations.
The band will continue to shift east northeast as low pressure
passes just south of the area. Temperatures will fall to or
just below freezing along the northwest edge of the rain band.
This will result in some ice accumulations. But after a very
warm day, road temperatures are forecast to stay above freezing.
This appears to be similar to what happened last Saturday
morning with minimal travel impacts. So have continued with an
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low tracks in the Appalachians on Tuesday. The
deformation band of pcpn, lingers in the north Tuesday morning,
before it starts pivoting to the northeast. Across the southern
part of the area, the pcpn will be more scattered in nature
during the morning hours. The pcpn will transition to rain
during the day.
Late Tuesday afternoon into early evening a reinforcing shot of
cold air will begin to push southeast out of Canada in the form
of another shortwave. As this happens rain will start to mix
with snow in the northwest, then the rain/snow line drops
southeast through the region.
Snowfall amounts could be a couple of inches around the I-71
corridor by the end of the period, with a little less across the
rest of the fa. Will issue a WW Advisory to cover the snow
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Snow will be ongoing at the start of the long term on Wednesday with
the surface low situated just southeast of the area. Some
additional snowfall accumulations will be likely on Wednesday during
the day, however some accumulations may be offset during the daytime
hours due to the time of the year.
Snow will begin to taper off through the day as the area of low
pressure moves away from the area. With cloud cover and snow,
continued the trend of going cooler and below guidance for high
temperatures on Wednesday. In addition winds will continue to gust
with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible.
Additional snow showers will be possible during the overnight hours
Wednesday night across southwestern portions of the region as an
upper level disturbance works down into that area. Due to some
uncertainty with the placement of this disturbance decided to limit
precipitation chances to a slight chance at this time.
High pressure and dry conditions will be in place for Thursday and
Friday. The next system will then work into the region for the
weekend bringing a mix of rain snow to the area.
There are some model discrepancies on when precipitation will begin
to move into the region with the Monday into Monday night system,
however expect most of the precipitation to hold off until Monday
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will remain VFR through the early part of the TAF
period. A band of rain will slowly spread north. With very dry
air at the surface, it will take some time for lower clouds
based to develop let along precipitation reaching the surface.
Eventually, lower levels will moisten which will result in MVFR
ceilings below 2000 ft at most locations. Temperatures may get
to or just below freezing at KDAY, so a period of FZRA is
forecast there for a few hours around 12Z.
Precipitation will decrease in coverage during the day, although
it is not out of the question to see some spotty showers or
drizzle. MVFR ceilings will persist. Precipitation will start to
blossom again late in the period with this likely being snow.
Northeast winds 10 to 20 kt will back slightly during the day.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities will continue
Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities
possible again on Saturday.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT
Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT
Wednesday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT
Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.