Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KJAN 220943 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
443 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion
12Z TAF discussion: 
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Light winds are
expected through the period./17/
Today through Tonight: Latest rap and satellite imagery showed an 
amplified ridge over the Rockies which was providing northwest flow 
to the region. On the surface a ridge of high pressure was centered
over the Midsouth region. Readings prior to dawn were in the middle 
30s northeast to the middle 40s southwest. Expect areas of frost 
across the northeast and eastern counties early where some readings 
were approaching the lower 30s.  Otherwise high pressure will bring 
another day of mostly sunny skies with highs a little more 
seasonable with readings from the lower 60s northeast to near 70 
southwest. With dewpoints mainly in the 30s minimum humidity will 
dip down into the lower 30s. Light winds and recent rainfall will 
limit fire danger issues. For tonight the surface ridge will move 
east of the region which will bring some low level return by Friday. 
Mid to high level clouds will move into the forecast area overnight 
from the northwest. Lows for Thursday night will be in the 40s. 
Friday through Wednesday night: Warmer than normal temperatures 
return and moisture will continue to increase Friday ahead of a 
shortwave and <1000mb low moving over the Central Plains. Models 
remain in good agreement that Friday and Friday evening will be dry 
but the chance of rain looks to return to our northwest zones before 
sunrise Saturday. Both the shortwave and surface low weaken Saturday 
as they track east across the Tennessee Valley and try to drop a 
cold front into our CWA. The Canadian is a little farther north but 
the GFS and ECMWF both agree that the cold front will stall near the 
Interstate 20 corridor Sunday. The stalled front will lift back to 
the north Monday in response to another surface low deepening over 
the Central Plains as a large closed low drops south toward the 
desert southwest. Coolest temperatures and greatest rain chances 
Saturday through Monday will be carried across the northern half of 
our CWA. Our southern half will be warmer than normal and mostly dry 
through the period. Monday night through Wednesday night the large 
closed low will slowly shift eastward. This will induce mid level 
ridging downstream over the eastern CONUS and surface ridging that 
will slip a backdoor cold front into our CWA Tuesday. The ECMWF is a 
little farther east with an axis but the GFS and Canadian agree that 
a prolonged period of moist southwesterly flow set up and lead to an 
axis of significant heavy rainfall. This axis is currently expected 
to remain to our west through Wednesday night but could shift into 
our CWA by the time the closed low lifts out. Thus, a flash flooding 
threat could develop across the ArkLaMiss by late next week. /22/ 
Jackson       67  45  76  57 /   0   0   0   1 
Meridian      65  42  74  53 /   0   0   0   1 
Vicksburg     69  46  77  58 /   0   0   0   6 
Hattiesburg   68  41  76  54 /   0   0   0   2 
Natchez       69  47  77  59 /   0   0   0   3 
Greenville    66  47  75  58 /   0   0   0  14 
Greenwood     65  48  74  57 /   0   0   0  11