FXUS62 KJAX 221800
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...High pressure building in from
the nw will continue the dry and cool pattern. Winds will drop off
over inland areas tonight with temperatures falling into the
mid/upper 30s. Patchy inland frost will be possible late tonight.
A light breeze will persist at the coast tonight with temperatures
bottoming out in the lower 40s. Surface high will settle over the
area on Friday which will result in light winds with an increase
in mid level clouds from the nw. Temperatures will be still be
below average with readings in the lower 60s coast and 65-70
.SHORT TERM (Fri night-Sat night)...700-500 mb streamline
analysis shows anti-cyclone over central Mexico will move over the
western Gulf of Mexico with northwesterly flow continuing in the
mid levels through Saturday night. While 925-850 anti-cyclone
moves over FL on Friday night and pushes gradually further
offshore Saturday and Saturday night while nor'easter moves
farther off the northeast coast lifting up the Atlantic seaboard.
Surface low over the central plains Friday night will track
eastward over the northern part of Middle TN by Saturday night.
This will increase moisture across south central GA as residual
trofiness in the wake of the departing nor'easter moves into South
Carolina. Some of the these showers possibly spilling south of
the Altamaha River by late Saturday night as a backdoor cold front
drops south towards cental South Carolina. Ahead of the this
residual trofiness moving into the region, heights rise over the
SE U.S. in response to the main eastern U.S. trough moving east.
This results in a warming trend with temps warming to above normal
by Sat as winds veer to the SW.
.LONG TERM (Sun-Wed)...Rain chances increase from north to south
Sun and Sun night as the backdoor front / wedge drops south
through the area. The front will bring a brief period of cooler
conditions with a breezy NE onshore flow to the area...especially
from I-10 north...as a strong high wedges south into the area on
Monday. By Monday night, the breezy NE winds along the coast will
shift mainly south of I-10. A few showers will also be possible
near the coast. The wedge will weaken late Monday night, with
warmer conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will be return to a
couple degrees below normal Tuesday and about 5 to 7 degrees
above normal Wednesday ...as the strong surface high off of the
Carolina coast shifts SE about 350-450 miles east of the region by
Wednesday while upper ridge builds over the area with lighter
southeast return flow. Another cold front will approach the region
at the end of next week.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions through tonight with nw winds
diminishing around sunset.
.MARINE...Winds and seas will continue the downward trend tonight
so will drop headlines. Surface high pressure will move over the
waters Friday and Saturday with light winds and seas expected.
A backdoor cold front will move south across the waters Sunday
night with Advisory conditions expected Sunday night through
Tuesday as northeast winds and seas increase.
Rip Currents: Low risk.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 38 65 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 43 61 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 40 67 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 41 63 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 37 70 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 37 71 45 78 / 0 0 0 0