Area Forecast Discussion


126 
FXUS64 KLCH 191722
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1222 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon with SCT/BKN
VCSH ranging from 3500-6000 feet. NW winds will increase to 10-15
knots with gusts of 25-30 knots. These gusty winds will result in
a chance for moderate low level turbulence at all area TAF sites
through late this evening. By 00Z, VCSH are expected to diminish
and give way to clear skies. NW winds will also begin to decrease
to 5-10 knots through the late evening and overnight hours.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/ 
DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is on target. Just made some minor adjustments to
first period grids to nudge them toward obs. Gale warning was
allowed to expire on schedule, and the remaining hazards look to
be on track.
13 
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019/ 
DISCUSSION...
Early morning sfc analysis shows our cold front now well east of
the forecast area...stretching from low pressure over nern AL to
the Gulf off the mouth of the MS River. In its wake, much cooler
and somewhat drier air is in place with temps in the 50s area-
wide. Water vapor imagery shows deep troffing in place over the
cntl CONUS with the trof axis about to cross directly overhead. A
mid-level speed max is noted upstream over nern TX nosing its way
sewd...regional 88Ds show a few mainly light showers associated
with it mostly off to our nw. Otherwise, generally clear skies
with the exception of the nwrn zones where cloud cover ahead of
the disturbance is encroaching.
Have had to re-insert slim POPs across much of the forecast area
for today as the speed max drops into the area and combines with
mainly mid-level moisture to continue producing a few showers. 
SPC has highlighted the area in a general thunderstorm risk for 
today as cooling aloft associated with the passing trof axis 
allows for a little destabilization later...only carrying an 
isolated mention for now. The main story today looks to be brisk 
nrly winds as good CAA continues along with a good gradient thanks
to strengthening high pressure building swd from the Rockies...in
response, have issued a Wind Advisory for the srn zones plus St. 
Landry Parish. Winds look strongest over the Atchafalaya 
Basin...might be borderline for Calcasieu/Orange/nrn Jefferson but
have elected to include them just in case. Advisory is in effect 
from noon to 6 PM (17z-23z).
The holiday weekend looks dry as the sfc high builds past the
region while a nrly flow re-establishes itself aloft. After a cool
start Saturday morning, temps begin to moderate with the high pushing
east of the area and heights beginning to build aloft. Maxes are
progged to return to the lower 80s by Sunday, then linger through
much of the coming week.
Rain chances return to the area primarily on Wednesday in advance
of the next storm system crossing the wrn CONUS. For now, expect 
rain chances to begin nudging upward by Tuesday. Elevated POPs are
in the forecast for the latter portions of the forecast period as
the potential exists for a low to cut off over the wrn Gulf region
and wobble ewd across the forecast area.
MARINE...
No changes to inherited headlines today. Expect a strong offshore
flow to continue through a good portion of the day before the core
of the sfc high builds close enough to relax the gradient.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  69  44  75  49 /  30   0   0   0 
LCH  72  48  75  56 /  10   0   0   0 
LFT  72  48  75  53 /  30  10   0   0 
BPT  72  48  75  59 /   0   0   0   0 
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.
TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ215-216.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ450-452-
     455-470-472-475.
     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening for 
     GMZ430-432-435.
&&
$$
AVIATION...26