Area Forecast Discussion


215 
FXUS64 KLCH 150454
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1154 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018
.DISCUSSION...
For the 08/15/18 0600 UTC TAF package.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR continues to prevail at all sites with mainly high cirrus
overhead. SFC winds are thus far remaining more elevated than last
night, especially at KBPT, which is yielding a higher T/Td spread.
THus, saw no reason to deviate from the previous forecast of
prevailing VFR all sites, with just TEMPO MVFR for light VSBY
restrictions at KAEX.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 904 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 
UPDATE...
Upper level ridging remains in place this evening across the
northern gulf of Mexico resulting in mostly clear skies areawide.
An upper trough moving across the central U.S. will begin to erode
this ridging by tomorrow while also shunting it off to the west allowing
for isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across acadiana. 
The current forecast reflects this and no changes were required.
Jones
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 
DISCUSSION...
For the 08/15/18 0000 UTC TAF package.
AVIATION...
VFR all sites early this evening, with some waning shower activity
noted to the north of KLFT. High pressure at the SFC and aloft
continues to prevail, and will yield mostly VFR through the
forecast period. Have included a brief TEMPO MVFR for light VSBY
reductions at KAEX based on latest guidance and persistence. Will
evaluate evening guidance and Ob trends for possible addition of 
same at other terminals.
13 
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018/ 
SYNOPSIS...
Another hot and dry day underway as subsidence and dry air
associated with high pres aloft remain over the region. LAPS 
precip water analysis and GOES TPW indicate drier air has shifted
toward northern LA. Sfc high pres remains situated over the 
northern Gulf coast with light southerly winds acrs the area. 
Under partly cloudy skies, temperatures have warmed into the lower
and middle 90s but with slightly lower dewpoints acrs the area,
heat index values are staying near 100 degrees.
24
DISCUSSION...
Aloft, low pres is noted over KS and this system and its
associated trough will move east toward the MS valley through
Wednesday. This will begin to weaken the ridge and allow for
possibly a few more isolated showers and storms during the day 
Wednesday, but the best chc will remain acrs the usual area of 
south central LA. 
Through late in the week and into the weekend, a series of
shortwaves in the westerlies will translate acrs the central
CONUS, helping to maintain a weakness aloft over the region.
Moisture will continue to increase with precip water near 1.7 to
~2 inches which is near to slightly abv climatological average 
for mid August. Thus a return to daily sctd convection is 
expected, with PoPs around 30 to 50 percent from Thursday through
Sunday. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain near normal with lows
in the middle 70s and highs in the lower 90s (but this will also
be dependent on where showers or storms occur). 
By early next week, another shortwave is progged to dig a little 
deeper over the central CONUS, helping to push a cold front toward
the area. Global models show some slight discrepancies regarding
the evolution/timing, but in general expect a continuation of 
rain chcs into Monday/Tuesday as the system approaches.
24
MARINE...
High pres will maintain a mostly light southerly flow and lower 
seas for the next several days. Shower and tstm chcs will increase
late in the week and into the weekend as high pres aloft weakens. 
24
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  73  95  72  94 /  10  10  10  20 
LCH  76  92  75  92 /  10  20  10  30 
LFT  76  94  76  92 /  10  20  10  40 
BPT  76  92  76  92 /  10  20  10  30 
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$