Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS65 KLKN 201005
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
305 AM PDT Tue Mar 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...A large and wet storm system will begin to impact the
Silver State Wednesday and persist through Friday morning. 
Significant valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds are 
expected. A brief break in the weather is anticipated Friday 
afternoon and evening, before another storm system approaches the 
are next week. 
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. A very moist and anomalous
atmospheric river event is on tap for the Great Basin beginning
Wednesday and persisting into the extended. Confidence is high in
significant mountain snow, valley rain, and strong gusty winds. 
Today -A few showers will be possible across the north near the
ID/NV border. This will clear the area by later this evening. 
Wednesday - As the large storm system moves closer to the Great
Basin, moisture and winds will increase noticeably through 
morning and into the afternoon. A weak piece of energy and 
associated WAA will spread some light to moderate snow showers 
across northern NV Wednesday morning. The best chance for light 
accumulations will be NE Elko County, where a slushy inch or two 
of snow could accumulate, before the precip exits the area. Winds 
will become gusty out of the S/SW, especially in central NV. 
Moisture will continue to rapidly increase through the evening and
into the overnight. 
Thursday - This will be a very active day across the entire 
region as very impressive AR moves into the Great Basin.
integrated vapor transport (IVT) is 4-6 standard deviations above
normal for a large portion of the area, with some locations 
locally higher in Nye and White Pine Counties. Another interesting
item to note is forecast PWATs are around 0.75". This would 
shatter the all-time record for Elko. tAll of this translates to 
an impressive moisture surge and significant valley rain and high 
elevation mountain snow. No significant flooding is expected, 
however recent valley snow and rain has saturated soils. In 
addition, there is a considerable snow-pack between roughly 6500 
and 8000 ft that will be vulnerable to rapid snow melt from rain 
on snow, warm temps, high dew points, and a snow eater wind. This 
means there could be minor overland flooding in places like 
Ryndon, Osino, Wells, Spring Creek, and any stream exiting the 
higher terrain. Again, this is not expected to be significant, but
it could result in pasture flooding, water over secondary dirt 
roads, and a lot of muddy, potentially impassable roads. 
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday. The period begins with
abundant subtropical moisture streaming across NV bringing valley
rain and high elevation snow. By Friday the subtropical moisture
moves off to the east for decreasing shower activity. A cold upper
trough will move across NV over the weekend bringing snow showers
and much below normal temperatures. Not expecting any significant
snowfall accumulations as moisture will be rather limited. Showers
will end on Monday as upper trough slides off to the east.
.AVIATION...VFR conditions next 24 hours at all TAF sites.