Supression Forecast


094 
FNUS76 KLOX 250003
FWSLOX
Spot Forecast for SBA County South Coast Precipitation Forecast...CA OTH
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
403 PM PST Sat Feb 24 2018
Forecast is based on incident time of 0600 PST on February 26. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...Another cold upper level low pressure system will
drop southward over Southwest California late Monday into early 
Tuesday. At this time, the system is expected to have limited
over-water trajectory, but will bring a chance of showers to
the south coast Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Due
to the showery nature of the system, rainfall amounts are
expected to be quite variable, most likely ranging anywhere
between 0.05 and 0.20 inches for areas that do receive rainfall
from Santa Barbara to Carpinteria and the adjacent foothills.
At this time, the rainfall intensities are expected to be fairly
light over the south coast. However, if this system shifts a bit
further west and develops a more over-water trajectory, there is
a slight chance of brief and localized heavier showers Monday
night into early Tuesday. As a result, there is a 10 percent
chance of 15 and 30 minute rainfall rates exceeding USGS
thresholds. There is another storm that could bring more
widespread rainfall and possibly moderate rainfall intensities
to the south coast in the Thursday to Friday time frame, with
details becoming more clear as we get closer in time.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy with a chance
                    of rain showers in the afternoon. 
Max temperature.....Around 59. 
Wind (20 ft)........Variable 3 to 5 mph in the morning becoming
                    southwest 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph in
                    the afternoon. 
Chance of rain......30 percent.
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance
                    of rain showers. 
Min temperature.....Around 43. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 12 mph in the evening
                    becoming variable 3 to 6 mph.
Chance of rain......40 percent.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy with a slight chance
                    of rain showers in the morning. 
Max temperature.....Around 60. 
Wind (20 ft)........Variable 3 to 5 mph in the morning becoming
                    southwest 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph in 
                    the afternoon. 
Chance of rain......20 percent.
 
$$
Forecaster...GOMBERG
Requested by...Jeff Gater
Type of request...OTHER
.TAG 1802482.0/LOX
.EMAIL david.gomberg@noaa.gov,buhl@sbcoem.org,ktaylor@montecitofire.com,jgater@sbcoem.org,rlewin@sbcoem.org