Area Forecast Discussion


762 
FXUS64 KLUB 251717
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
.AVIATION...
Cold front currently moving through will bring a period of breezy
northerly winds at all of the terminals this afternoon, before
winds decrease and veer easterly this evening. Winds will swing
back to the south tomorrow, increasing to breezy levels on the
Caprock. VFR will prevail, though mid-high level cloudiness will
be on the increase tonight in early Friday as the remnants of 
convection from over the Sangre de Christo Mountains this 
afternoon drifts overhead.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 934 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ 
UPDATE...
Cold front plummeting southward through the Texas Panhandle with 3
hourly surface pressure rises on the order of 8 millibars should
keep majority of wind speeds just short of Wind Advisory levels.
But, expect stronger winds than previously indicated. So, we have
updated for 5-10 mph stronger northerly winds, strongest in our
more wind-prone areas of the extreme southern Panhandle and
northwestern South Plains. High temperatures today will be very
tricky with this front causing considerable shallow mixing and
unsure how much cold-dominant that incoming airmass will be by
late this afternoon. For now, holding on to previous temperature
forecast but will update if stronger downward trends are noted by
data upstream from the West Texas Mesonet. Also, for the afternoon
package, we will be eyeing storm development early this afternoon
along the Sangre De Cristo for potential run southeast towards 
the Panhandle and northwestern South Plains tonight. Another front
Saturday will be on our scope for this afternoon as well. 
RMcQueen
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ 
DISCUSSION...
An upper level low continues to move east over Oklahoma. Across the 
South Plains upper level ridging will build in and a cold front will 
move through today with winds shifting to the north 15-20 mph. 
Despite the front, temperatures will still warm to the upper 70s to 
low 80s this afternoon. Tonight convection over northern New Mexico 
will move towards the Texas Panhandle. Expect most of the moisture 
to stay to our north, but a few sprinkles are possible in the 
northwest counties. A similar set up is possible Friday night as a 
shortwave moves through, but for now have kept PoPs low. Lee 
troughing and southwest winds will help temperatures warm to the 
upper 80s on Saturday before the next front moves through in the 
afternoon. The front will have not much impact on temperatures with 
highs in the 80s again on Sunday. 
Early next week a series of shortwaves will move through. There is 
still some timing differences with the main storm, with the GFS 
being the fast solution. The dryline will fluctuate across the South 
Plains with thunderstorms along it. PoPs are generally 20-40% and
a few storms could be strong to severe. 
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
05/23