Area Forecast Discussion


784 
FXUS64 KLUB 180927
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
327 AM CST Sun Nov 18 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Cool surface ridging was continuing to build into the region early 
this morning, well behind a cold front which was now advancing 
through the Hill Country. Stratus has filled in well behind the 
front and was now blanketing northwest Texas. These clouds will 
persist through much of the morning before breaking up this 
afternoon, though mid-high clouds will linger. As the surface ridge 
axis traverses the South Plains winds will become light and variable 
this afternoon, but it will remain cool, with highs only in the 
lower to middle 40s.
After another cool night tonight, temperatures will rebound well 
into the 50s tomorrow as the surface ridge relents and an upper 
ridge begins to approach from the west. The mild conditions will 
prevail into the coming week, though we could see a few degrees of 
cooling behind a glancing shot of a surface high roaming the Midwest 
Monday afternoon. 
A weakening mid-level disturbance remains on track, undercutting 
the approaching ridge, by mid-week. Just enough moisture and lift 
could support isolated to scattered light showers on Wednesday. 
Breezy southerly winds and mild temperatures will follow on 
Thanksgiving ahead of a storm system moving into the western 
states. This system will emerge over the High Plains late week. An
increase in wind looks like the most likely outcome, though the 
00Z ECMWF has trended further south and would support increased 
precipitation chances. We have kept PoPs unmentionable for now, 
pending further run-to-run and model-to-model support. The 
progressive pattern will supply another storm system approaching 
the region just beyond the end of the forecast, though its depth 
is also in question. 
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
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