Area Forecast Discussion


823 
FXUS64 KLUB 212135
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
335 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low currently positioned over Nevada will swing 
toward New Mexico and West Texas over the next 24 hours. The 
potential for light freezing rain and sleet will continue through 
tonight and the morning hours tomorrow as upper level height 
fields fall and the first of two trough axis' swings across West 
Texas and the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma by tomorrow afternoon.
Most operational guidance keeps the best chances for any 
impactful wintry precipitation across the Rolling Plains tomorrow 
morning but the NAM continues to indicate the potential for a 
small window of light freezing rain and sleet on the Caprock 
around sunrise into mid morning tomorrow. The entire CWA should be
above freezing by noon tomorrow with rain chances lingering 
across the southern Rolling Plains into tomorrow afternoon. With 
westerly winds picking up behind the trough axis exiting to the 
north east temperatures will peak in the low 50s to low 40s from 
west to east across our CWA.
The second wave associated with the approaching low arrives late
Friday into early Saturday with slight chance POPS again relegated
mostly to the southern Rolling Plains where moisture will be most
abundant, relatively speaking of course. Primarily zonal flow 
will set in for the remainder of the weekend as temperatures 
moderate to above normal mostly in the mid 60s through the 
remainder of the forecast period. There are some hints at a 
stronger upper level system than the current one affecting our 
area for late Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Along with the 
stronger upper level low, moisture return out of the southeast 
should be aided by an amplifying ridge over the southeast and Gulf
of Mexico but even then the extended guidance is only hinting at a
weak signal.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ025-
026-031-032-036>038-041>044.
&&
$$
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