FXUS64 KLZK 192321 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
621 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019
Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...
Expect the VFR conditions to persist through the overnight
period. A weak cold front will push SE through the state on
Wed...with some SHRA possible along this front. Some MVFR CIGs may
be seen with this activity. Winds should remain generally less
than 10 kts sustained.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 247 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday
Recent observations indicate generally clear conditions across
the forecast area, with near normal temperatures. Radar and
satellite imagery indicate a number of instances of prescribed
burn activity this afternoon.
An upper trough over the central high plains will move southeast
during the first half of this forecast period. A weak surface
reflection will accompany this energy during the day Wednesday.
Generally light precipitation is expected with this system. The
rainfall is expected to move east of the forecast area by early
LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Tuesday
Omega pattern across the western US will be breaking down during the
early portions of the extended term. A number of shortwaves will be
moving thru the area during the term, and eventually resulting in a
more or less zonal pattern by the end of the term.
With several shortwaves approaching the area, the big question is:
will there be enough moisture and/or instability to generate
The return flow at the surface will start to get established on
Friday, and there should be enough moisture for some showers with
the disturbance on Saturday. At the moment I have isolated
thunderstorms mentioned in the grids, as it does not look like there
will be enough instability for widespread thunderstorms.
The low level moisture values should increase notably by Monday, as
another disturbance and a surface cold front approach the area.
There are still a lot of uncertainties in my mind regarding the
timing of the front, but I would expect more widespread
thunderstorms with this event.&&