Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KLZK 201116
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
616 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018
MVFR ceilings will continue to affect the northeast half of the
forecast area through 15z. Visibility restrictions appear to be
isolated across extreme northern sections early this morning. A 
near surface wind of 10-20 kts will prevail through 23z.
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 306 AM CDT Tue Mar 20 2018)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night
Recent, local radar and surface observations indicate very light 
precipitation affecting portions of southwest Missouri and northwest 
Arkansas, moving to the southeast. Wraparound moisture associated
with east Tennessee low pressure, as well as shortwave energy 
approaching from the west are promoting this light precipitation 
and low cloud cover. Most of the precipitation will end by noon, 
with the low clouds decreasing from west to east during the 
afternoon hours. 
Surface high pressure will build into the mid south late tonight and 
early Wednesday, and will promote dry conditions for the rest of the 
LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday
An unsettled, fairly active pattern will be taking shape in the long 
term periods, as the longwave pattern shifts. The subtropical jet 
will become more active, which will enhance our rain chances.
At the beginning of the long term period, a remnant frontal boundary 
will be moving north/northeast through the region as upper ridging 
attempts to build over the Rockies. The ridge will translate eastward 
into Friday, with the surface boundary stalled out or meandering 
near northern Arkansas. The mean flow will stay active, sending 
several systems through and interacting with the frontal boundary. 
The result will be an increase in showers and thunderstorms, 
particularly over northern Arkansas. 
Eventually, the ridge will shift eastward, with southwest upper flow 
developing. At the same time, low pressure will form along the 
stalled/meandering boundary in the plains, and will bring a new cold 
front into the region during the weekend. However, with upper 
ridging acting as a block, this front will also stall out somewhere 
over Arkansas, where it would likely remain beyond the end of the 
current forecast period. Several systems will move through and 
interact with the front. There will be a continued stream of low 
level moisture moving up from the Gulf, and mid and upper level 
moisture streaming in from the Pacific. 
So, if you, much like myself, have followed Arkansas weather for any 
length of time, you will no doubt recognize this as a pattern 
conducive to heavy rainfall. At this point, I'm not even going to 
venture a guess as to specific rainfall amounts this far out. You 
know as well as I do, the details will likely change to varying 
degrees. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts in the coming 
.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.