Area Forecast Discussion


151 
FXUS64 KMAF 251721
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
.DISCUSSION...
See 18z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light out of the west early this afternoon then become more
northerly then northeast to east by this evening. Elevated winds
with possible gusts are expected this evening into tonight as a
cold front moves into the area. 
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019/ 
DISCUSSION...
A dry and sunny day is expected across West Texas and Southeast 
New Mexico. 500 mb ridging will continue to build across the 
Southwest U.S. and promote northwest flow over the forecast area. 
At the surface, winds will veer out of the W-NW ahead of a cold 
front that will reach the CWA border this afternoon. Compressional
warming ahead of the front will allow temperatures to climb into 
the mid to upper 80s region-wide. The front should make it west of
the Pecos River late tonight. Guidance suggests there may be a 
brief period of moderate gap winds at GDP, but looks to remain 
just under high wind criteria. Winds will become southerly by 
Friday morning as a sfc low develops east of the Rocky Mtns. 
Temperatures will be slightly cooler Friday as the 500 mb ridge 
begins to flatten and flow becomes more zonal. 
Much warmer temperatures are in store for this weekend as another 
backdoor front approaches the northern CWA on Saturday. Models do
not bring the front through until after peak heating which will 
allow temperatures to climb into the mid 90s across Pecos River 
Valley and near the century mark along the Rio Grande Valley. 
Above normal temperatures will continue into Sunday as the sfc 
front lifts north of the region and an 850 mb thermal ridge 
develops over the western CWA. 
Long range models indicate a Pacific Low will move on shore over
Southern California by Monday. The track of this low is still
uncertain. Both ECMWF and GFS have it lifting north of the area,
which would lower precipitation chances. However, there could
still be isolated t-storm activity along the dryline. Decided to 
leave in at least slight chance PoPs across the eastern CWA 
through the extended. 
Salerno
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     85  55  81  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       87  56  84  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Dryden                         89  60  87  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  85  58  85  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 80  53  80  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobbs                          83  51  79  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Marfa                          80  48  82  50 /   0   0   0   0 
Midland Intl Airport           86  56  82  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Odessa                         85  55  81  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Wink                           87  57  85  61 /   0   0   0   0 
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
99/99/99