Area Forecast Discussion


890 
FXUS64 KMAF 161119
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light southeast winds will continue this TAF
period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 301 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/ 
DISCUSSION...
The heat gets cranking later this week and the storms we have seen 
as of late will become a distant memory. An upper ridge over the 
West Coast will begin to build east today, but not before one more
day of showers and storms across the higher terrain. Some of 
these storms will again contain heavy rain which may cause 
localized flash flooding. Further east over the Permian Basin, 
drier air and subsidence will lead to much less in the way of 
convection today. Temperatures will increase a degree or two, but 
should stay below 100 one more day. 
It appears we will see a sharp decrease in convection over the 
higher terrain Tuesday and in turn temperatures will get another 
boost up. Upper heights will continue to increase through the week 
and so will temperatures. 850mb temps will soar >30C across much of 
the forecast area leading to highs well above 100F. This pattern 
will last into next weekend with no precipitation or relief in 
sight. Heat advisories could be needed as early as Wednesday for 
parts of the area and many record highs could be in jeopardy. 
This heat will reach far and wide with the majority of Texas, 
Oklahoma, and eastern NM seeing temperatures above 100 all week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     98  74 101  75 /  10   0   0   0 
Carlsbad                       94  70  97  71 /  20  10   0   0 
Dryden                         97  73 100  74 /  10   0   0   0 
Fort Stockton                  93  71  97  72 /  20  10   0   0 
Guadalupe Pass                 87  68  90  69 /  50  20  10   0 
Hobbs                          92  69  95  70 /  10   0   0   0 
Marfa                          86  62  90  64 /  50  20  10   0 
Midland Intl Airport           97  73  99  74 /  10   0   0   0 
Odessa                         96  73  98  74 /  10   0   0   0 
Wink                           96  72  99  73 /  10   0   0   0 
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
99/99/10