Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS62 KMFL 180742
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
342 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018
Atlantic surface high pressure will continue to hold over South
Florida to end the weekend and kick off the next work week. The
light flow and increasing moisture will allow for temperatures and
relative humidity to creep higher. An east coast sea breeze
developing today could also bring a slight chance of showers along
the east coast metro areas, particularly southern portions of 
Miami-Dade County. The higher surface moisture and light wind will
combine to create the potential for fog again overnight.
To the north, an advancing low pressure system will push into the
Tennessee River Valley late Monday into Tuesday. The associated
cold front will be slightly delayed from reaching south of
Interstate 4 until the surface high pressure retreats. This will 
open the door for the front to push south into the area on 
Tuesday into Tuesday night. Guidance is still depicting a strong 
low level jet coincident with the passage of this convection ahead
of the front, which could allow for the potential of strong 
thunderstorms over portions of South Florida. 
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the Lake 
Okeechobee region in the marginal risk area of the Day 3 Outlook 
(SWODY3). Other portions of the peninsula to the north are under 
the Slight or Enhanced risk areas. This will need to be monitored 
over the coming days as the severe weather threat could change 
depending on the timing of the system and the location of the 
atmospheric ingredients necessary to create a severe weather 
The front should clear the region early on Wednesday with cooler,
drier air trailing in its wake. This will return our region to
crisp, cool nights and bright, sunny days. By the weekend, high
pressure builds over the area and zonal flow aloft will keep the
next front to the northern parts of Florida with little ability to
advance southward until past the end of the weekend.
Light wind as surface high pressure continues to hold over the
region. Winds increase out of the southwest on Monday ahead of 
the next cold front. Hazardous SW wind is possible Tuesday, 
followed by some gusty northwest wind and elevated seas behind a 
cold front Tuesday night into Thursday. Some thunderstorms may 
accompany the front Tuesday night and Wednesday.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018/ 
Patchy fog interior South Florida and Gulf coast 08z-13z,
otherwise VFR conditions to prevail over the next 24-30 hours. 
Prevailing light W wind less than 10 knots, except for Atlantic 
seabreeze shifting wind to SE 10 knots at east coast TAF sites by 
19z-20z. A couple of showers not out of the question in MIA area 
after 20z, but too low of a chance to mention in TAFs at this 
West Palm Beach  82  65  85  69 /  10  10  10  10 
Fort Lauderdale  83  69  83  71 /  20  10  10   0 
Miami            83  68  84  70 /  20  10  10   0 
Naples           81  66  82  68 /  10  10  10  20