FXUS62 KMLB 221955
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Tonight/Fri...High pressure to the northwest will maintain a cool
dry NW flow tonight resulting in below normal temperatures in the
upper 30s and lower 40s. Record lows appear out of reach but it
will be unseasonably chilly. Patches of frost will be possible in
normally colder and wind protected areas N/W of Orlando. On
Friday, light north flow will turn onshore (NE) in the afternoon
along the coast. Under full sunshine, max temps will remain below
normal ranging from the mid 60s along the immediate Volusia coast
to the mid 70s over the interior.
Fri Night-Sun...N/NW flow thru H100-H70 will prevail, veering to
W/SW on Sat as the anticyclone axis pushes acrs the FL Peninsula and
into the FL Straits. PWat values increasing to 0.75"-1.00" by
daybreak Sat as sfc/low lvl winds shift to onshore, then to the
south. H85-H70 profile shows strong subsidence inversion and
dewpoint depressions btwn 10-15C, suggesting little in the way of
meaningful precip chances, but will go with slgt chc of predawn
coastal -shras north of Sebastian Inlet Sun night into Mon as a
backdoor front works its way into the lcl Atlc.
Gradual warming trend thru the weekend as winds shift to a srly
component. Temps recovering to near avg on Sat with max temps in the
M70s along the coast, U70s interior...min temps in the M/U50s except
L60s along the immediate Treasure Coast. W/SW flow on Sun and
minimal cloud cover will push temps back abv avg with max temps in
the L/M80s...mins in the L/M60s.
Mon-Wed... Models bring a backdoor front into the lcl Atlc early
next week, with brisk H100-H70 winds shifting to N/NE by daybreak
Mon, bcmg E/NE by daybreak Tue. Mean RH lvls thru H100-H85
increasing to 80-90pct with onshore flow increasing to arnd 20kts
thru H100-H70. Close proximity of the post frontal high pres ridge
will maintain a strong subsidence inversion in the H90-H70 lyr,
keeping the lcl airmass suppressed and limiting atmospheric
instability. While N/NE flow regimes typically do not result in high
precip coverage for central FL, strength of the onshore component
suggests chc/slgt chc of low-topped shras over the coastal/interior
counties, respectively. Onshore flow will temper any large scale
temp swings, max/mins generally with 5F of climo avg.
Tonight...NW pressure gradient is weakening allowing winds to
decrease below 20 knots. Expect 10-15 knots to persist overnight
with seas gradually subsiding. Up to 7 feet will remain possible
this evening then the Small Craft Advisory will likely be allowed
to expire but Caution may be needed overnight offshore.
Fri-Fri Night...Sfc/bndry lyr winds bcmg a light to gentle N/NW
breeze by midday as high pres approaches the FL peninsula. Seas 3-
4FT over the shelf waters and 4-5FT in the Gulf Stream early mrng,
subsiding to 2-3FT shelf waters and 3-4FT Gulf Stream by early
Sat-Sat Night...Hi pres building over the FL Peninsula in into the W
Atlc will force winds to shift from a light to gentle N/NE breeze at
daybreak to due east by midday, S/SE thru late aftn, then gentle to
moderate S/SW overnight. Seas 2-3FT shelf waters and 3-4FT Gulf
Sun-Sun Night...Shifting winds, esp overnight, as a backdoor frontal
boundary pushes into the lcl Atlc. Gentle to moderate S/SW breeze
thru the day, bcmg W/NW by sunset, bcmg N/NE in the predawn hrs.
Seas generally 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream. Chc of -shras
dvlpg, with the approaching front, mainly aft midnight.
Mon-Mon Night...Deteriorating boating conds as a NE wind surge
pushes the frontal boundary down the ern seaboard. Gentle to
moderate N/NE breeze at daybreak bcmg moderate to fresh E/NE by
early aftn, contg overnight. Seas building from NE to SW, bcmg
hazardous from Sebastian Inlet northward thru late aftn, then
areawide overnight. Seas north of the Inlet up to 4-6FT nearshore
and 6-8FT offshore in the aftn, then 6-8FT nearshore and 7-9FT
offshore overnight. South of Sebastian Inlet, seas generally 2-3FT
thru the day, up to 4ft in the Gulf Stream, but bcmg hazardous
overnight, building to 6-8FT nearshore and 7-9FT offshore.
Dry conditions will persist Friday with long duration of critical
RH values over the interior. North winds will be a bit less as
high pressure settles towards the area. Still, Red Flag conditions
are possible Fri afternoon where ERC values are high, especially
Orange and Seminole counties.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 41 67 48 75 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 45 73 52 78 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 42 69 51 76 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 42 71 52 76 / 0 0 0 10
LEE 44 72 52 79 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 44 70 51 78 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 47 72 53 78 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 40 72 49 77 / 0 0 0 10
FL...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Indian River-
Northern Brevard County-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-Southern
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for Flagler
Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian
Inlet 20-60 nm.