Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMQT 181957
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
257 PM EST Sun Nov 18 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 206 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018
Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb ridge in the Pacific NW with 
a broad trough across most of the U.S. The ridge moves into the 
Rockies on Mon while the trough deeps across the ern half of the 
U.S. this forecast period. Deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector 
convergence move in tonight with an alberta clipper type system that 
moves out by Mon afternoon. There will also be some lake enhancement 
from Lake Superior thrown into this as well for tonight into Monday 
morning. Will continue the winter weather advisory for lake effect 
snow this afternoon into early evening for Houghton as the heavy 
snow band is somewhere out there and will be focused across the 
Keweenaw due to convergence in the low levels. Next problem looks to 
be the Mon morning commute with some lake enhancement and upslope 
snow for northern Marquette County and could see some periods of 
heavier snow in the higher terrain. Will put out a special weather 
statement to account for this. Otherwise, no real big changes to the 
going forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 256 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018
Generally light NW-NE wind LES is expected Mon night through Wed, 
with the exception of Tue evening into Tue night when a shortwave 
and surface low are expected to move through the area.
As the shortwave and low pass through, only expect light snow well 
inland, but in NW wind snowbelts, lake enhancement could lead to 
moderate to briefly heavy snow for a short period of time. Looks 
like evening commute would not be impacted, except maybe over the 
Keweenaw if the features move through on the earlier side of 
guidance spread. Gusty N-NW winds will be gusty along and behind the 
low and accompanying trough, so blowing snow may be an issue near 
Lake Superior.
Overall idea for later this week is warmer. Looks like highs Fri and 
Sat will be around 40F then maybe a bit cooler for Sun. Precip 
chances are quite uncertain and precip type is even more so.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM EST SUN NOV 18 2018
A band of Lake Effect snow will affect KCMX through the forecast. 
KIWD and KSAW will stay VFR until light snow moves into that area 
tonight bringing periods of MVFR ceilings and vsby that may fall to 
IFR late. But KCMX is the location with the main impacts from this 
band, where MVFR ceilings are expected. Depending upon exactly where 
the most intense portion of the band sets up, KCMX could see a 
period of IFR ceilings and LIFR visibilities, but there is 
uncertainty with the duration of the lower conditions.
.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 206 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2018
Winds will be 15 to 25 knots this afternoon as winds become nw. A 
period of 20-30 knot NE winds are then expected Monday morning as a 
low pressure system slides quickly to the south of the area. 
Stronger winds are expected again by Tue night into Wed as another 
clipper low pressure system slides by to the north and east of the 
area and gets winds up to near gales on the east half of Lake 
Superior. The active pattern will continue with south winds to 30 
knots developing Thursday. Basically, several periods of winds up to 
30 knots are possible with a few gale force gusts possible as well.
Upper Michigan...
  Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ003.
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...