Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMQT 180847
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
447 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018
Quiet weather will continue through tonight although the passage of 
a backdoor cold front from Ontario this morning will bring an 
increase in clouds this afternoon into tonight.  
Today, a backdoor cold front will push into the area from Ontario 
with high pressure building southward from northern Ontario as a 
shortwave slides southeast from James Bay. Model soundings indicate 
very shallow and limited moisture available with the front. Any 
weak/sheared clipper shortwaves in the confluent nw flow may bring 
an increase in mid clouds but not expecting any pcpn given how 
shallow the low-level moisture is (to around 1000 ft). Temperatures 
will be cooler across the north today with highs generally in the 
lower 30s nw and north central with a chilly ne flow off Lake 
Superior. Cooling won't reach the WI border until late in the day so 
highs will still reach into the mid to upper 40s there.
Tonight, expect min temps dropping generally into the teens under 
partly to mostly cloudy skies.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018
Models suggest that a split flow pattern will prevail from the 
weekend through early this week. High pressure from nrn Ontario into 
the northern Great Lakes will maintain dry weather through next week 
as any significant pcpn remains well to the west or south. High 
temps will also remain near or below normal dominated by cool 
northeasterly low level flow. 
Monday into Wednesday, anticyclonic northeast low level flow of 
shallow cold air with 3k ft inversion top temps to near -14C will
provide only marginal instability for any LES, especially with 
very dry air upstream. Temps, however will drop below normal with 
highs from the upper 20s north to lower 30s south. Light snow 
associated with an inverted sfc trough and mid level shrtwvs into 
the Dakotas will remain to the west of the cwa through Wed. 
However, some light snow showers may be possible over the far west
half by Wed into wed night as weak qvector conv with the mid 
level trough axis moves into the area. 
Thu-Fri, expect gradual warming as the plains mid level ridge builds 
slowly eastward and sfc high pressure builds over the region. 
However, temps will only climb into the mid and upper 30s, near 
seasonal averages. 
Sat, the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF have trended slightly farther to the 
north with pcpn associated with a stronger shortwave moving into the 
upper MS valley. However, the northern portion of the pcpn area will 
likely be impeded by continued dry ene low level flow from the 
Hudson Bay high.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 139 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018
A cold front moving in from the NE late tonight and Sun morning 
should lead to reduced CIGs at KCMX and KSAW, but not precipitation. 
The exact height of those CIGs is uncertain but there will likely
be a period of MVFR conditions.
.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 331 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2018
High pressure building in from Ontario will produce ne winds around 
25 knots over western Lake Superior this afternoon and tonight. 
Otherwise no significant winds are expected through the forecast 
period, with winds generally staying at or below 20 knots.
Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...