Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KOUN 192012
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
312 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019
Deep upper trough over the eastern US continues to push away from 
our area, leaving dry and quiet weather conditions in its wake. 
Winds have remained breezy this afternoon, but should decrease 
through the evening. With clear skies and decreasing winds most 
locations will have no problem dropping into the low to mid 40s 
overnight for lows. 
Pressure falls to our west ahead of next trough over the western US 
will bring a return to southerly flow and a warming trend for 
Saturday as upper ridge builds over the area. Moisture will attempt 
to return to the region as well, but it will take time as moisture 
recovery over the Gulf will be slow behind departing eastern US 
trough. A weak lead shortwave moves across northwest Oklahoma into 
Kansas on Sunday, but with the aforementioned lack of moisture and 
sufficient capping in place it appears any convection will stay 
north of our area. 
This begins to change by Monday as a weak frontal boundary provides 
a focus for thunderstorm development and moisture continues to 
recover. Progged MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/Kg in the vicinity of 
the front suggest strong and even a few severe thunderstorms would 
be possible, but relatively weak low-mid level flow should limit 
shear and prevent more widespread severe weather. For Tuesday and 
Wednesday the main trough approaches the region and the front will 
likely provide a continued focus for precipitation. As of now the 
models suggest the front will be located somewhere across central or 
southern OK, but its exact location will be influenced by previous 
day's convection and is subject to change. Given the expected slow 
movement of the front, persistent heavy rainfall is a concern and 
flooding potential will have to be monitored as we head into next 
Models have trended a little faster with the exit of the trough so 
Thursday may end up dry for all but far southern and southeast 
Oklahoma. Temperatures look to warm up quickly behind this system 
as upper ridging builds into the area. 
Oklahoma City OK  45  78  59  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Hobart OK         45  80  59  87 /   0   0   0   0 
Wichita Falls TX  46  81  59  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Gage OK           44  85  58  91 /   0   0   0   0 
Ponca City OK     42  78  58  83 /   0   0   0   0 
Durant OK         44  75  56  79 /   0   0   0   0