FXUS64 KOUN 161309 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
809 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
Increased rain chances this morning across northern Oklahoma.
An area of showers and few thunderstorms has formed from near
Fairview to Blackwell, Oklahoma line due to isentropic mid level
lift in a moist airmass. Think this activity will slowly diminish
later this morning as lift weakens. Locally heavy downpours will
occur with these showers and storms, which could result in minor
flooding. Don't think this activity will be severe due to limited
instability and weak shear.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 444 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/
Scattered thunderstorms today are expected across north central
Oklahoma just south of a stationary front. Isolated thunderstorms
may occur across central Oklahoma this afternoon. Winds will be
light and conditions VFR outside of thunderstorms.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/
There is little change since the last several days. Very high
humidity in central Oklahoma and temperatures in the 90s will give
heat index readings in the heat advisory category again today. One
is in effect for south central Oklahoma this afternoon. The upper
ridge over Oklahoma will dominate all weak with some small
changes. A weak stationary front over southern Kansas may drift
into northern Oklahoma this afternoon and enhance thunderstorm
chances there and into central Oklahoma later today. This may
linger into Tuesday as well. By Wednesday, the upper ridge may
drift a bit westward while the westerlies intensify over the
northern Rockies and plains. A weak surface trough is expected in
the lee of the Rockies which will give southwest boundary layer
flow into western Oklahoma the second half of the week. With this
comes drier air, but higher temperatures. By Thursday and Friday
daytime temperatures are expected 10 to 15 degrees above these
highest late-July normals, approaching 110 in southwestern
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of northern Texas. Drier air may make
it as far east as central Oklahoma Thursday and Friday giving the
OKC area reading over 100 degrees. This could be exacerbated by
the approach of a weak front from the north in northwesterly flow.
The front will bring only small chances for rain, but slightly less
hot weather will follow for the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 94 75 94 75 / 30 20 30 10
Hobart OK 98 76 100 76 / 20 20 20 0
Wichita Falls TX 100 77 103 78 / 10 10 0 0
Gage OK 94 72 95 72 / 30 30 30 10
Ponca City OK 93 74 92 74 / 50 40 30 30
Durant OK 99 76 99 77 / 20 20 20 10
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening