Area Forecast Discussion


447 
FXUS61 KPBZ 220525
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1225 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue before rain chances return with 
weekend low pressure. Strong winds are also expected on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Mainly dry weather is expected tonight under building sfc high
pressure. A shortwave tracking across the TN Valley to the Mid
Atlantic region should continue to maintain mid and high clouds
overnight. Tucker county WV is in closer proximity to the wave,
and maintained only a brief slight chance POPs as most of the
precip should remain S of the area. Lows are expected to be
around 5 degrees above average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Dry weather will continue as the aforementioned sfc high
continues east across the region. A disturbance passing south of
the forecast area early Friday should result in increased cloud
coverage across southern zones...but precipitation chances are
too low for mention in the forecast.
An upper low currently over the desert southwest will deepen as
it tracks ENE across the Central CONUS and near the Great Lakes
by Saturday night. Increasing moisture and shortwave support in
SW flow aloft ahead of this feature will begin to increase
rain chances early Saturday...expanding north over the course 
of the day. Garrett county MD could see a brief period of
freezing rain Saturday morning until sfc temperatures rise.
Rain should overspread the area Saturday and Saturday night with
the increasing moisture and shortwave support and as sfc low 
pressure develops and quickly tracks from the Plains to the 
Great Lakes/Upper Midwest region, pulling a warm front N across
our area. Model progs indicate the best potential for heavy rain
should stay just S of the area. Above seasonal average 
temperatures are expected with strong warm air advection in
place.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models remain in fairly good agreement with overall pattern on
Sunday...which looks to be an ideal setup for a significant wind
even across the forecast area. Location/orientation of upper 
level features and surface low, U and V component anomalies, top
analogs, and 99th percentile ensemble wind forecasts (relative
to model climatology) all support a strong wind event as well.
(For all locations...not just the higher elevations - based off
a local studies.) Maintained mention of this in the HWO being 
still 3 days out...but if models remain consistent...warning 
level winds would definitely be possible.
Weak ridging in zonal flow aloft should return dry weather for 
Monday and Tuesday before the pattern amplifies and another 
trough tracks SE across the region by midweek, returning precip 
chances to the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected under high pressure through the TAF
period. Only mid and upper level clouds are expected as a mid-
level wave passes to our south. Wind will remain light, drifting
to a more north/northeasterly direction with time.
.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely in rain late Saturday as low digs 
toward the Great Lakes and invokes strong southerly flow across
the Upper OH Region. Dangerously windy conditions are expected 
for Sunday.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$