Area Forecast Discussion


908 
FXUS61 KPHI 220232
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
932 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the northwest and west to 
close out the work week, before moving offshore on Saturday. Low
pressure lifts across the Great Lakes over the weekend and its 
associated fronts will affect our area. More high pressure will 
build in for the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will continue to build into our region from the 
west and northwest overnight. Most of the area will experience 
dry weather with a fair amount of cirrus overhead. An area of 
rain over Kentucky and Tennessee this evening will move 
eastward. The northern edge of that rain may brush across 
southern Delaware and the adjacent counties of eastern Maryland 
toward morning. Any rainfall there will be light.
The wind should favor the northwest at less than 10 MPH. 
Minimum temperatures are anticipated to range from the middle 
20s in the Poconos to the upper 30s in southern Delaware,
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
As the high continues to build closer to the region, fair and 
seasonable weather is expected through the day on Friday. 
Temperatures are expected to be near normal, with highs from the
mid 30s to mid 40s (slightly lower than Thursday thanks to the 
weak cold front). Pressure gradient is expected to decrease, and
consequently winds should be decreasing as well.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fri night/Saturday...Mostly fair thru this period with 
increasing clouds. There is a chance for some light rain to 
arrive across Delmarva and SE PA by Saturday afternoon. A cold 
night Friday night with near normal high temperatures expected 
Saturday. 
Saturday night/Sunday...A wet period with deep low pressure 
cutting well to the west and a series of fronts to cross our 
region. Steady rains Saturday night becoming showery Sunday. 
Overall, around an inch of rain could occur. Some hydro concerns
possible with recent rains/snows and still rather wet ground. 
Winds will be moderate thru Sunday morning , then a cold front 
will cross the area and winds will increase over the Middle 
Atlantic area. High temperatures Sunday before the front crosses
will be in the 50s across the north and low/mid 60s over the 
Delaware Valley and Delmarva. 
Sunday night through Monday night..Precipitation ending but 
windy and much colder. Highs Monday will be 15 to 20 degrees 
below Sundays' readings. Sub-freezing temperatures are expected 
for Monday night as high pressure builds over the area. 
Tuesday thru Thursday...No major weather systems foreseen, but 
a sharpening H5 trough across the Great Lakes could send a few 
weak clipper systems over the area. A little snow could occur, 
but the details are too low confid to include anything more than
a chc pop in the present fcst.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, 
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Overnight...VFR with high clouds. Northwest wind 4 to 8 knots.
Friday...VFR with high clouds. Scattered cumulus in the 
afternoon. Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots.
Outlook... 
Fri night...VFR with increasing clouds.
Saturday...VFR early then lowering CIGS with rain expected by 
afternoon. VSBY restrictions possible late.
Saturday night...CIG/VSBY restrictions expected. Rain and fog. 
Sunday...Low clouds/VSBYS early then improving late. 
Monday/Tuesday...VFR expected.
&&
.MARINE...
A northwest wind 10 to 15 knots is forecast for the overnight 
period into Friday morning. Wind speeds are expected to fall to 
5 to 10 knots on Friday afternoon.
Wave heights on our ocean waters should be 3 to 4 feet 
overnight, and 2 to 3 feet on Friday.
Outlook...
Fri night/Saturday...Sub-SCA. Fair Fri night and a chance for 
afternoon rain Saturday. 
Saturday night thru Sunday...SCA Sat night. Gales developing
Sunday. Rain. 
Sunday night thru Monday night...Gales expected. Storm force
winds possible Monday. Fair.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
Synopsis...Kruzdlo
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...Iovino/O'Hara
Marine...Iovino/O'Hara