FXUS61 KRLX 180708
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
308 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018
High pressure today into Monday. Another system arrives Monday
night through mid week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...
Lingering showers across the southern coal fields will taper off
through early this morning. A high pressure system moves in
from the northwest today with mostly clear skies and light
winds. The mid-March sunshine should help warm temperatures into
the mid 50s across the lowlands and 40s to low 50s in the WV
Have some very low end POPs arriving from the south during the
pre-dawn Monday -- ECMWF still supports this, while NAM and GFS
are a bit slower and would keep it dry through the night.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...
Unsettled weather returns to the area in the short term period.
Southeasterly flow and moisture increases across the area early
Monday out ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Still
looking at the possibility of a light wintry mix across parts of
the northern mountains early Monday, changing over to rain as
an upper shortwave trough and surface low approach and move
through the region. There is a small possibility of
thunderstorms across the far south Monday evening, but elected
to leave out of the forecast for now as better chance appears to
lie south of the CWA.
Low will move off to the east Monday evening, with colder air
taking hold, and a change over to snow, particularly across the
higher terrain, where light to moderate accumulations are
expected. Have highlighted the potential for a winter weather
advisory in the HWO for this time period.
Some uncertainty exists for details on Wednesday, but overall,
looking colder, as an upper trough deepens across the eastern
U.S., with snow showers a possibility area wide, with at least
light accumulations expected across parts of southeast Ohio,
northern WV and the mountainous counties.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...
Cooler, but overall drier to start the long term period,
although a few light upslope showers may linger for the first
part of Thursday in northwesterly flow. Another system expected
to move into the area by the weekend.
.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM Sunday...
Generally VFR expected through the forecast period...with the
exception of MVFR to IFR across the southern coal fields and
mountains as a surface wave slowly pulls out. There is a small
chance of some fog forming from HTS-CRW-EKN however dewpoints
have generally be falling slowly keeping the fog at bay so far.
Winds will be light and somewhat variable through the period.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and level of restrictions could
vary through early this morning.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 03/18/18
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M H H M
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in precipitation Monday into Tuesday.