Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KSGF 221039
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
539 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
Early this morning...surface high pressure was centered across the
Mississippi Valley while an upper level ridge was situated across
the Rockies. The surface high will drift slowly eastward today as
the upper ridge continues to build into the region.
With the high moving eastward...winds will veer around to the
south across the entire region by late morning. Afternoon highs
should range from the upper 50s to mid 60s across the region.
Clouds will also begin to increase in advance of an upper level
wave moving through the northwest flow.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
This next system will begin to affect the area very early on
Friday morning. Rain will affect mainly Central Missouri through
Saturday morning but amounts are expected to be light. We then 
get about a 24 hour break before the unsettled weather begins to 
affect the region.
A longwave trough will dig southward along the west coast over 
the weekend and be situated over the Rockies by Sunday evening. 
This will push the upper level ridge off to the east while placing
the area into southwest flow aloft setting up lee cyclogenesis 
over eastern Colorado and bringing low level Gulf moisture into 
the region.
The upper trough will continue to dig into the desert southwest
through mid week keeping the area in southwest flow. Meanwhile...
as impulses move through this flow...a surface front will become 
established SW-NE across the area that will bring periods of 
showers and occasional thunderstorms beginning Sunday morning 
through the remainder of the forecast period. The heaviest rain is
expected to occur from Monday night through Wednesday morning. 
This pattern will need to be monitored closely for possible heavy
rain and potential flooding.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. With high pressure centered over the area...winds will be
from the south at 5-10 kts. Will start out with high scattered
clouds but will increase to a mid level ceiling between 21-23z.