Area Forecast Discussion


732 
FXUS64 KSHV 161154
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
654 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018
.AVIATION...
Scattered cirrus and VFR conditions across the region this
morning. Expecting some convection to develop across the northern
and eastern sections of the region later today and overnight. 
Decided to add VCTS to the TXK/ELD/MLU terminals at 17/00z to 
account for this. Tafs could need amending if convection develops 
earlier and/or moves further south. Otherwise, expect a growing 
cu field and VFR conditions to prevail through the daytime hours 
today and diminish overnight across the remaining Tafs.
Light south winds will become southwest near 10kts or less for 
today before diminishing to light after 17/00z. /20/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 527 AM CDT Mon Jul 16 2018/ 
SHORT TERM.../Today through Tuesday Night/ 
The center of the aforementioned upper-level ridge across the 
region will slowly drift just to the west across north Texas. At
the same time high pressure will continue to expand across the 
southwestern portions of the US. As a result, the western half of 
the region, generally across East Texas, will be under the ridge, 
but the remainder of the region will be in northwest flow aloft. 
Under the ridge, temperatures will warm into the upper 90s with
drier conditions. The rest of the region will have a chance for
showers/t-storms today and Tuesday, as several shortwave
disturbances will move out of the central plains towards the
region. Diurnal convection will also be possible from any left
over outflow boundaries from previous convection. Despite there
being a chance of precipitation over the the eastern half of the
region today, temperatures and dewpoints will be just high enough
for heat indices to rise between 105-110 degrees. Another Heat 
Advisory was issued between noon and 7pm today east of a line from
El Dorado Arkansas to Natchitoches Louisiana. High temperatures 
will climb into the mid to upper 90s across the region again on 
Tuesday with overnight lows tonight and tomorrow night in the mid 
to upper 70s. /20/
LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Monday/
In the Northwest flow around the Northern periphery of the large 
middle/upper level ridge of high pressure centered just West of the 
Four Corners Region showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near 
and along a cold front that will be near and just North of 
Interstate 20 across North Louisiana and Northeast Texas. The cold 
front will become nearly stationary during the afternoon then starts 
to retreat to the Northeast as a warm front by early Thursday.
The boundary will be a focus to help with development of showers and 
thunderstorms and some additional development will be possible from 
outflow boundaries from dissipating showers. Convection will 
decrease by late Thursday as the warm front lifts away from the area 
and the upper ridge of high pressure builds East and Southeast into 
the forecast area. Increased subsidence from the strong upper ridge 
will generally bring thunderstorm chances to an end.  By Saturday a 
short wave trough moving around the ridge aloft will merge with 
another Northern stream disturbance amplifying a long wave trough 
over the Eastern parts of the country helping drive another back 
door cold front toward the forecast area, but this boundary looks to 
come up stationary and provide some of the more Northern zones with 
a slight chance of thunderstorms. The ridge aloft will be providing 
a dry period with daytime high temperatures climbing near the 
century mark for most locations. The higher temperatues will reside 
over parts of East and Northeast Texas and taper lower across South 
Arkansas and North Louisiana. This will also lead to heat index 
values over 100 degrees F, most likely over Heat Advisory criteria. 
The one factor that may keep heat index values a few degrees lower 
will be the strength of vertical mixing each afternoon, which may 
bring dry air from aloft down to the surface. /06/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  78  99  78 /  10  10  20  20 
MLU  97  77  95  76 /  20  30  30  30 
DEQ  95  75  95  73 /  30  30  30  30 
TXK  96  77  97  76 /  20  30  30  30 
ELD  95  77  95  75 /  30  30  30  30 
TYR  96  77  99  77 /  10  10  10  10 
GGG  97  76  99  76 /  10  10  10  20 
LFK  96  75  98  75 /  10  10  10  10 
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for 
     ARZ073.
LA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for 
     LAZ004>006-012>014-018>022.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
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