Area Forecast Discussion


099 
FXUS64 KSHV 251945
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
Issued by National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
245 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2019
.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/
After last night's severe thunderstorms, things are much quieter
this afternoon in the wake of a cold front. A surface low is
centered over northeast Arkansas, with cooler and drier air moving
into the Arklatex region. A few spotty showers are occurring,
mainly across our Arkansas counties, associated with the
deformation zone on the backside of the surface low. These showers
should move out in the next few hours, with only some scattered to
broken clouds remaining. Diminishing cloud cover will give way to
mostly clear skies tonight, with low temperatures falling into the
50s for most locations.
.LONG TERM...
/Friday and beyond/
Friday will be tranquil as a surface high builds across the
south-central CONUS, leading to sunny skies and high temperatures
in the 70s across our county warning area.
The next chance of rain and thunderstorms will come late Saturday
as a cold front slides into northern portions of our county
warning area. This front looks to stall roughly along the
Interstate 30 corridor, which will place the greatest rain chances
across McCurtain County and into far northeast Texas and southwest
Arkansas. There will be some marginal instability to work with, so
a few thunderstorms could be strong to low-end severe, with large
hail being the primary hazard. SPC has highlighted a marginal risk
area for late Saturday in the aforementioned areas.
Late in the weekend, the cold front will retreat back to the north
as a warm front, setting up a robust warm air advection regime
across our region. Upper-level ridging should keep rain chances
near a minimum for Sunday and Monday.
Thunderstorm chances will return again by Tuesday and continue at
least into Wednesday as deep upper-level troughing becomes
established across the western CONUS. As is typically the case for
this time of the year, severe weather will be possible with these
rounds of thunderstorms, but details regarding the timing and the
degree of instability/shear remain uncertain. SPC has highlighted
a 15% area for Tuesday, but this threat area looks to stay just to
our west across Texas and into Central Oklahoma. Wednesday may
contain the best chances for severe weather in parts of our county
warning area, but with significant differences with regards to 
the timing of large-scale synoptic ascent, uncertainty remains 
high in terms of timing and severity of any severe thunderstorms. 
Stay tuned.
Godwin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  58  78  55  80 /  10   0   0   0 
MLU  59  77  54  80 /  10   0   0   0 
DEQ  52  78  52  79 /  10   0   0  10 
TXK  54  76  55  78 /  10   0   0  10 
ELD  56  77  53  79 /  10   0   0  10 
TYR  56  76  57  80 /  10   0   0   0 
GGG  56  77  55  80 /  10   0   0   0 
LFK  59  80  56  81 /  10   0   0   0 
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-019-021.
OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ126-138-
     151.
&&
$$
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