Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS64 KSHV 180539
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1139 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018
VFR conditions will prevail initially across the terminals with
light southerly winds. A cold front will approach from the 
northwest early today, bringing MVFR ceilings, a wind shift to
west-northwesterly, and brief MVFR showers as it moves into the 
area. There was little change in the timing in the 06Z TAF package
with the front reaching Tyler/Longview in the 09z-12z window, 
Texarkana/Lufkin around 12z, Shreveport 15z-18z, and El 
Dorado/Monroe 19z-22z. 
After the cold front passes, showers will mostly diminish with MVFR
ceilings 1500-2500 ft anticipated, possibly even lowering to IFR 
Sunday night.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1051 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018/ 
For the update will increase the areal coverage of rain chances
and increase percentages for late tonight given short term models
indicated faster movement of the cold front into the forecast
area. Also mad adjustments to the overnight low temperatures and
daytime highs for Sunday as well as adjustments in the rain
chances throughout the day. /06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018/ 
Following a mostly sunny and seasonally warm day 
across the region, a partially radiation cooling in presence of a 
lgt srly wind and upper lvl clouds, will allow for some cooling, 
but not down to the current dewpoints mainly in the lower to 
middle 40s. Thus, 15 to 20 degree drop from daytime highs appear 
to be best scenario. Stg cold front movg into central OK will be 
knocking on the Red River Valley door by daybreak, with overcast 
skies and some lgt rain in shallow low lvl saturating will keep a 
very low diurnal swing Sunday with winds shifting to nw around 10 
mph with fropa. Some portions of north central LA may see little 
effect on daytime highs still rising well into the 60s. Area of 
low clouds and potential lgt rain will slowly shift eastward and 
concentrate to our north, under base of upper trough, and over se
TX where low lvl moisture is richer. But at least low end chances
of rain expected across this trough axis. Temperature profiles 
Monday night over Red River Valley indicate a potential for lgt 
sleet, but feel that the moisture may be lacking by the time 
sufficient cold air aloft arrives for this occurrence to be of 
concern. /07/
Shortwave movg ewd around the base of the large-scale trof axis 
present over much of the ern CONUS to bring some lift atop a cool 
post-frontal airmass in place across our region Monday/Monday night. 
This looks to generate some additional shwrs mainly across the srn 
half of our region during that timeframe. Secondary push of cold air 
in the wake of the trof will bring some slightly cooler than normal 
temps for the region Tuesday, with dry conditions persisting through 
the first half of Wednesday.
Another progressive shortwave will quickly approach Wednesday, with 
just enough moisture recovery to bring shwrs to much of the region 
late Wednesday aftn through Thursday morning. Although this is a 
relatively potent shortwave, lapse rates/instability appear to weak 
attm to warrant a mention of isold tstms. Shwrs to quickly move e of 
the region, leaving pleasant temperatures in the low 60s and plenty 
of sunshine for Thanksgiving Day. 
For the end of the pd, another trof is fcst to be movg across the 
Central Plains as we move into Friday. Moisture recovery is somewhat 
in question attm, but a fcst of some sct shwrs appears to be a 
reasonable approach. /12/
SHV  52  61  44  54 /  10  50  20  40 
MLU  46  68  49  59 /   0  20  20  40 
DEQ  49  52  37  55 /  30  40  10   0 
TXK  50  56  39  55 /  20  50  10  10 
ELD  46  60  44  55 /  10  40  20  10 
TYR  53  53  39  54 /  30  50  10  20 
GGG  53  57  41  54 /  20  50  20  30 
LFK  53  61  45  54 /  10  40  40  50