Area Forecast Discussion


699 
FXUS64 KSJT 212042
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
242 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
Precipitation has shifted out of the Big Country this afternoon and 
will soon be out of the Heartland as well. Went ahead and ended the 
Ice Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory Early and replaced it 
with a Special Weather Statement detailing the chance of icy spots 
again tonight. The TTU WRF, the HRRR, and the NAM all show a similar 
setup tonight, with isentropic lift at least making for the 
possibility of some freezing drizzle developing later this evening, 
and then scattered showers with freezing rain develop towards 
sunrise and spreading northward across West Central Texas late 
tonight and into Thursday morning. Shifts this evening or tonight 
will need to monitor to see if a new winter weather advisory may be 
needed, but with amounts expected to be spotty and light, it may not 
be needed. 
With clouds in place, temperatures not expected to drop very much 
overnight, with readings in the mid 20s across the Big Country to 
around 30 across the I-10 corridor. Next shortwave rounds the base 
of the main upper level trough and brings lift into the area late 
tonight and more into the day on Thursday. Showers become more 
widespread starting around sunrise Thursday morning and continuing 
into the afternoon. Initially, temperatures will be below freezing 
and patchy freezing rain is possible. However, by mid morning 
temperatures should be rising to the freezing point and 
precipitation should turn to all rain.
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
The weather pattern will become drier and warmer by next week...
(Friday through Saturday afternoon)
A stalled frontal boundary will be draped across West Central 
Texas during day on Friday. A strong area of high pressure located
in the western Atlantic, will keep a moderate southeasterly flow 
across the region. This will help advect Gulf of Mexico moisture 
into the region. This moisture plume will interact with the 
frontal boundary. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be 
likely along areas close to where the frontal boundary sets up 
during the afternoon and evening. Best chances for precipitation 
look to be in the eastern counties along and east of a Mason to 
Brownwood line. Rain could be heavy at times, especially in any 
thunderstorms that do develop. These rain and thunderstorms will 
move off to the east-northeast through the day. Highs on Friday 
will be in the mid to upper 50s across the Big Country. Across the
rest of the region, temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s.
The next storm system will begin to exit the Rockies and move into
western Kansas Saturday morning. This system will pull a warm 
front northward across the area during the morning on Saturday. 
Strong southerly flow will develop behind the warm front and ahead
of an approaching cold front. With plenty of moisture and
increasing instability across the region, expect a line of 
showers and thunderstorms to develop along the cold front as it 
moves rapidly east through the region. Severe weather is not 
expected at this time. We will continue to monitor the development
of this system and update the forecast as needed. The main 
concern with the storms could be strong straight-line winds and 
frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. Behind the front, strong 
westerly downsloping winds will develop during the late afternoon 
and bring in much drier air across the region with dewpoint 
values dropping back into the 20s and high teens. Highs on 
Saturday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.
(Sunday through Wednesday) 
Expect quiet and dry weather through this time period. A weak cold
front will move through the area during the Monday. This front
will only bring a slight dip in high temperatures for Monday.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 60s with highs in the mid to
upper 60s on Monday. Models do suggest showers and thunderstorms
could return to the forecast by Tuesday ahead of an emerging storm
system across the southern plains. We will monitor the 
development of this next storm system as the time period gets 
closer. Expect continued warm temperatures on Tuesday and 
Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  27  41  34  56 /  10  60  20  70 
San Angelo  29  47  38  65 /  30  50  20  50 
Junction  31  51  42  64 /  30  60  40  60 
Brownwood  30  43  37  58 /  20  60  40  70 
Sweetwater  26  43  35  58 /  10  30   5  40 
Ozona       31  52  42  65 /  30  40  20  40 
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for Callahan-
Fisher-Haskell-Jones-Nolan-Shackelford-Taylor-Throckmorton.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for Brown-
Coke-Coleman-Concho-Irion-Runnels-Sterling-Tom Green.
&&
$$
07/40