Area Forecast Discussion


235 
FXUS64 KSJT 242346 AAA
AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
646 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Numerous thunderstorms over the Concho Valley are impacting KSJT
at the beginning of this TAF issuance, and this is reflected in 
the KSJT TAF. Carrying VCTS at KABI and KSOA early in the TAF
period. Once the storms dissipate, skies will gradually clear
overnight. However, low cloud development/expansion is expected
northward by early Tuesday morning, with associated MVFR ceilings. 
VFR conditions are expected area wide by Tuesday afternoon, if not
a little sooner. Outside the influences of convective activity 
this evening into early tonight, winds will be from the southeast 
to south tonight, and mostly from the south on Tuesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019/ 
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
Skies have cleared across West Central Texas this afternoon in the 
wake of morning stratus and rain showers across the Heartland. 
Temperatures have climbed back up into the mid to upper 90s across 
the Concho Valley and northern EdwardS Plateau as a result. 
Meanwhile, an outflow/stationary boundary is draped across the Big 
Country...with the dry line positioned back to the west across the 
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. South of the outflow boundary ML CAPE 
values have risen to around 4000 J/KG (per SPC mesoanalysis) from 
the Concho Valley southward to the I-10 corridor with little in the 
way of CINH remaining. Hi res model guidance and CAMS continue to 
initiate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this 
afternoon and into the evening hours across the western half of the 
forecast area. Given the strong instability and moderate deep layer 
shear, a few storms may reach strong to severe levels. Primary 
hazards will be large hail, damaging winds, and frequent lightning.  
Most of the showers/storms will dissipate shortly after sunset with 
the loss of daytime heating but will keep a slight chance of PoPs 
going overnight for any lingering showers/storms. Tuesday looks 
mostly dry across the area as upper ridging begins to build in across 
west Texas. Will maintain a chance of PoPs mainly across the 
southeastern half of the area where a few scattered showers may 
develop in the afternoon. Otherwise, highs will be in the lower to 
mid 90s under partly cloudy skies. 
LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
..Typical summer weather returns to West Texas...
The overall weather pattern will be quiet through this time
period. Some leftover showers and thunderstorms may be hanging
around late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Any storms
will be weak and should be either dissipating or moving out of our
area by day break on Wednesday. With the arrival of a large upper
level ridge across much of the intermountain west, a more summer
like pattern will persist across much of western Texas in the long
term. The bulk of the thermal ridge axis will remain over the
intermountain west and desert southwest, so temperatures will be
right at or 1 to 2 degrees above seasonal normals for this time of
year. Highs from Wednesday through the weekend will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Some of the long range models hint at the
return for some isolated rain chances to return to the forecast by
the start of next week. Decided to forego any mention of POPs at
this time and keep the forecast dry through the long term.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  70  90  70  91 /  30  10  20   5 
San Angelo  71  93  70  93 /  40  10  10   5 
Junction  72  91  70  91 /  30  30  20   0 
Brownwood  71  89  70  90 /  30  20  20   5 
Sweetwater  69  91  70  91 /  30  10  20   5 
Ozona       70  90  69  88 /  40  10  10   0 
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$