FXUS62 KTBW 171951
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
251 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018
.SHORT TERM (Today-Sunday)...
High pressure will ridge across the area through the period.
Winds will become light and variable overnight, with patchy
to areas of fog developing after midnight, becoming dense in
areas. This should then dissipate by 14-15z, with skies
becoming mostly sunny for Sunday afternoon. Winds will
increase from the E/SE in the late morning, and then turn
onshore near the coast in the afternoon. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to mid 60s, and highs Sunday will be
generally in the lower to mid 80s.
.LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Saturday)...
Mid/upper level ridging will remain over region through the period
with surface high pressure ridging west from the Atlantic Ocean back
across the Florida peninsula. This will continue the warm
temperatures, more typical of the second half of April, and with a
low level east to southeast flow we'll see dew points climb back
into the mid to upper 60s making it feel rather muggy. Areas of
deeper moisture will be moving within this flow and when combined
with the warm temperatures and sea breezes could lead to a few
showers in parts of the area on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday, but
overall it will remain partly to mostly sunny and dry. The only real
problem could be some late night and early morning low clouds and
fog each day.
Light winds will be turning to the W/SW over the next couple
of hours and then become light and variable overnight.
Mostly clear skies will allow for overnight fog to again
develop and cause MVFR to IFR conditions and below in dense
areas. Fog will again dissipate around 15z with light SE
winds in place.
High pressure will ridge across the waters through the week,
with light generally E/SE winds turning onshore in the
afternoons. Sea fog will be possible for the next few days,
with some dense sea fog expected mainly across the northern
and central waters Sunday morning.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA 63 82 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 63 85 65 85 / 0 10 10 10
GIF 61 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 60 81 65 84 / 0 0 0 10
BKV 55 83 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 64 79 66 83 / 0 0 0 0
Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon EST
Sunday for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon
Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay
waters-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee
River FL out 20 to 60 NM.
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close