FXUS64 KTSA 220545
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing IFR / LIFR conditions across E OK will prevail through the
overnight hours as the arctic air is slow to erode. Terminals
across W AR remain nearer the periphery of the colder air and some
periodic higher ceilings are possible though any improvements will
be highly localized as is currently observed across far NW AR.
Patchy freezing fog or light drizzle will remain possible
overnight across E OK. More widespread precip arrives during the
day Thurs with ceilings again lowering at all locales. Temps
remain forecast to be warm enough for all liquid by this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 833 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/
Widespread afternoon and early evening mixed bag of precipitation
has exited all of the forecast area except far southeast Oklahoma
and portions of western Arkansas. Given the surface temperatures
in this area, most of this is likely to be all liquid, except for
probably Carroll and Madison counties. Hourly POP forecast has
been refined to show a decrease from west to east and a likely
absence of measurable precipitation in the forecast area within
the next couple of hours.
A second area of more scattered measurable precipitation has
developed across parts of western Oklahoma and into western north
Texas. The eastern edge of this will make a run at areas northwest
of I-44 after midnight, although the bulk of this should remain
just west of the forecast area given the current trajectory. This
could provide some additional accumulating freezing rain,
especially to parts of Pawnee, Osage, and Washington counties.
Additional accumulations are likely to be only a few hundredths of
an inch at most.
Inbetween the two areas of measurable precipitation, drizzle or
freezing drizzle potential will exist through much of the night
and into tomorrow morning as well. Temperatures have actually
warmed a couple of degrees this evening, and they are expected to
either remain steady or increase a few degrees further. As a
result, parts of southeast and east central Oklahoma and western
Arkansas that saw freezing rain/sleet earlier this afternoon will
be unlikely to see any further freezing precipitation.
No current plans to change the configuration of the ongoing
Winter Weather Advisory at this point. Updated products already
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 30 44 36 53 / 30 70 30 40
FSM 39 52 45 58 / 20 70 80 80
MLC 32 44 39 53 / 20 70 50 80
BVO 27 41 33 51 / 30 60 30 20
FYV 32 51 41 56 / 20 60 80 70
BYV 29 49 44 56 / 20 50 90 60
MKO 32 44 38 54 / 20 70 50 70
MIO 29 44 36 53 / 30 60 60 40
F10 29 42 36 51 / 20 70 30 70
HHW 38 48 45 57 / 20 70 70 90
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for OKZ054>071-
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for ARZ001-002-