Area Forecast Discussion


544 
FXUS64 KTSA 220545
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1145 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Ongoing IFR / LIFR conditions across E OK will prevail through the
overnight hours as the arctic air is slow to erode. Terminals
across W AR remain nearer the periphery of the colder air and some
periodic higher ceilings are possible though any improvements will
be highly localized as is currently observed across far NW AR.
Patchy freezing fog or light drizzle will remain possible
overnight across E OK. More widespread precip arrives during the
day Thurs with ceilings again lowering at all locales. Temps
remain forecast to be warm enough for all liquid by this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 833 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2018/ 
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
Widespread afternoon and early evening mixed bag of precipitation
has exited all of the forecast area except far southeast Oklahoma
and portions of western Arkansas. Given the surface temperatures
in this area, most of this is likely to be all liquid, except for
probably Carroll and Madison counties. Hourly POP forecast has
been refined to show a decrease from west to east and a likely
absence of measurable precipitation in the forecast area within 
the next couple of hours. 
A second area of more scattered measurable precipitation has 
developed across parts of western Oklahoma and into western north 
Texas. The eastern edge of this will make a run at areas northwest
of I-44 after midnight, although the bulk of this should remain 
just west of the forecast area given the current trajectory. This 
could provide some additional accumulating freezing rain, 
especially to parts of Pawnee, Osage, and Washington counties. 
Additional accumulations are likely to be only a few hundredths of
an inch at most. 
Inbetween the two areas of measurable precipitation, drizzle or
freezing drizzle potential will exist through much of the night
and into tomorrow morning as well. Temperatures have actually
warmed a couple of degrees this evening, and they are expected to
either remain steady or increase a few degrees further. As a
result, parts of southeast and east central Oklahoma and western 
Arkansas that saw freezing rain/sleet earlier this afternoon will
be unlikely to see any further freezing precipitation. 
No current plans to change the configuration of the ongoing 
Winter Weather Advisory at this point. Updated products already
out.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  44  36  53 /  30  70  30  40 
FSM   39  52  45  58 /  20  70  80  80 
MLC   32  44  39  53 /  20  70  50  80 
BVO   27  41  33  51 /  30  60  30  20 
FYV   32  51  41  56 /  20  60  80  70 
BYV   29  49  44  56 /  20  50  90  60 
MKO   32  44  38  54 /  20  70  50  70 
MIO   29  44  36  53 /  30  60  60  40 
F10   29  42  36  51 /  20  70  30  70 
HHW   38  48  45  57 /  20  70  70  90 
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for OKZ054>071-
     073.
AR...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for ARZ001-002-
     010-011.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....07