Mesoscale Discussion

939 
ACUS11 KWNS 230628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230628 
TXZ000-OKZ000-230730-
Mesoscale Discussion 0423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Areas affected...TX Permian Basin...Northwest TX...Far Southwest OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94...
Valid 230628Z - 230730Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94
continues.
SUMMARY...Some isolated hail will remain possible for at least the
next several hours but the isolated/marginal nature of the threat
will preclude the need for another watch.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue across the region,
supported primarily by isentropic ascent throughout a cold front
extending from southwest OK into southwest TX. This continued
warm-air advection, aided by broad large-scale ascent, will likely
lead to the persistence of thunderstorms for the next several hours.
Even so, instability continues to wane amidst nocturnal cooling and
warming aloft resulting from multiple rounds of storms in the same
areas. Expectation is for isolated instances of hail resulting from
brief updraft intensification due to storm interactions amidst
moderate vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 40-50 kt).
Isolated and brief nature to this threat will preclude the need for
an additional watch.
An extension in time may be warranted across the Permian Basin where
the storm moving through Andrews County TX continues to show a
strong updraft capable of severe hail. The organized character of
this storm may allow it to persist longer, with the resulting severe
threat extending past the watch expiration time of 07Z.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 04/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON   33010286 34949949 33929881 32000219 33010286