ACUS01 KWNS 141614
SPC AC 141613
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the
western/north-central Florida Peninsula through the afternoon and
evening, and possibly across southeastern Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas tonight. Locally damaging winds should be the main threat.
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Morning radar
loop shows widespread showers and thunderstorms affecting the west
coast of the FL Peninsula, with activity spreading eastward across
the SLGT risk region. This will significantly limit
heating/destabilization. Nevertheless, forecast soundings show weak
but sufficient CAPE values and strong deep-layer shear today into
tonight. This may result in a few organized cells within the
broader precipitation shield. Rotating/bowing segments capable of
damaging winds, or perhaps a tornado spinup are the main concerns
today. The threat should end from west to east across the FL
Peninsula this afternoon and evening.
Strong surface pressure-falls are forecast over the eastern
Carolinas later today. This will result in strengthening southerly
low level winds and rapid destabilization along the immediate coast.
Model solutions suggest multiple clusters of thunderstorms offshore
this evening and tonight. If a few of these stronger storms can
spread inland, a marginal risk of damaging winds would be present.