Severe Weather Outlook, Day 2

428 
ACUS02 KWNS 230543
SWODY2
SPC AC 230542
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with large hail, wind damage and a tornado
threat are expected to develop across parts of south-central Texas
on Wednesday.
...Southern Plains...
An upper-level low will move into the southern Plains on Wednesday
as a mid-level jet rounds the base of the system. At the surface, a
cold front will advance southeastward across southwest and central
Texas. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass should be in place with
surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, which will contribute
to moderate destabilization by midday. The NAM and ECMWF continue to
show potential for thunderstorm development along the front during
the day. It appears that a cluster of thunderstorms will initiate
along the front in central and southwest Texas, moving
east-northeastward to the Texas Coastal Plains by early evening. NAM
forecast soundings across south-central Texas at 21Z on Wednesday
show MLCAPE values in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with steep
mid-level lapse rates and 50 to 60 kt of deep-layer shear. This
environment should be favorable for supercell development. Large
hail and wind damage may occur with the stronger rotating storms. A
tornado threat will also be possible. It is also possible, that an
organized line segment associated with wind damage will move across
south-central Texas during the afternoon.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   5%     - Slight
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:     15%     - Slight
..Broyles.. 04/23/2019
$$