Severe Weather Outlook, Day 3

991 
ACUS03 KWNS 160744
SWODY3
SPC AC 160743
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest
coast Thursday.
...Discussion...
A strong southwesterly mid/upper jet will advance inland from the
Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies and western Great
Basin through the period. In response, a downstream ridge will
settle southeastward across the Desert Southwest, southern/central
High Plains, and mid Missouri Valley. Meanwhile, a series of
impulses, from northern Mexico to the Great Lakes, will advance
east/southeastward and support broadly cyclonic flow across much of
the eastern US by Thursday night.
As the aforementioned western-US jet works inland, cold temperatures
aloft (e.g., 500mb temps around -30 to -32 C) on the poleward flank
of the jet will foster convection in the wake of initial heavy
precipitation late Wednesday. Forecast soundings suggest that
sufficiently deep buoyancy should materialize for isolated
thunderstorms near the coast during the day.
Elsewhere, only initial, modest low-level moisture return will be
underway along the lower/middle Texas coast Thursday into Thursday
night. As such, a stable, continental air mass will persist east of
the Rockies through the period, precluding thunderstorm development.
..Picca.. 01/16/2018
$$