ACUS03 KWNS 230709
SPC AC 230708
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind damage and hail threat
will be possible across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast States on Thursday.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States...
An upper-level low will move eastward across the southern Plains and
into the Arklatex region on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front
is forecast to move from the southern Plains eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass should be in place ahead of the
front with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In response,
instability is forecast to develop along and ahead of the front from
southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. Thunderstorms may be
ongoing along the front at the start of the period with this
convection moving eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley
during the late morning and early afternoon. The models are now in
decent agreement concerning the timing of the cold front. Strong
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, evident on
forecast soundings, should be sufficient for severe storms. An
isolated tornado threat along with potential for wind damage and
hail would exist with the stronger cells. Linear MCS development
will be possible during the afternoon.